Sabitlenmiş Tweet
Some thoughts today.
The world is in an increasingly uncertain phase of human history. The exponential development of AI means AGI is creeping closer and those close appear to be willing to do anything to reach it first. This plus an ongoing new cold war between the West and China/Russia means what happens a couple of months from now, let alone years, is hard to predict.
USD is devaluing and will likely continue to do so as trade war deepens (89% of global trade conducted in dollars) and leads to digital yuan being used more.
Gold is reaching new ATHs daily which, imo, feeds into dollar devaluation as more countries switch their reserves focus (59% of world foreign reserves held in USD)
Digital currencies are also now starting to open up the possibility of a new currency flows, using rails that don't involve the western banking system and that are underpinned by Chinese tech. This probably leads to a bipolar monetary order.
Long term power will lie with whoever reaches AGI first AND has access to the necessary natural resources to power and build it. Interestingly, China having relatively large control on certain rare earth minerals is it's ace card in any trade war.
The above probably pushes countries to take drastic actions. China and the USA.
Venezuela has access to large amounts of natural resources. Other countries (Iran, Saudi Arabia, China and Russia) are less accessible. This morning's headlines are already pointing to the direction that we're possibly headed.
Taiwan is important because of the chips it manufactures. It's also land that China contests is it's own.
Now add in the fact that retirees are living longer (ai will advance this further) and less babies are being born. We're approaching a point in time where the retired outnumber the working and, in turn, can no longer afford to be supported.
We have western economies that are already struggling and voters, frustrated by the lack of development and change, moving towards parties that are more insular. Parties that promise more nationalistic foreign policies. Ultimately leading to not only a divided world but also divided countries. This is the case for every western country (can't think of many exceptions).
All of these factors, imo, mean that the world as we know it will stop. If we're lucky, maybe somehow AI saves us and we do enter into a period of abundance. If we're unlucky, society as we know it breaks.
In both scenarios, bitcoin will increase in value alongside gold, and resources that are finite.
English
