Tom Connell

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Tom Connell

Tom Connell

@tomwconnell

Chief Election Analyst for Sky News / Host of Afternoon Agenda 2pm weekdays

Canberra Katılım Şubat 2011
1.4K Takip Edilen10.2K Takipçiler
Tom Connell
Tom Connell@tomwconnell·
Narungga Primary ON 38.58% vs Lib 21.84%. But scrutineer info has flow of Ind Ellis (17.6%) going 80% Lib and Labor (15%) going 70% lib. That would make projected 2cp close to 50/50, but with postal and absent to come. Too close to call but Libs can still win from 21.84% primary
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Tom Connell
Tom Connell@tomwconnell·
Mackillop will be ON vs Lib. From scrutineer info the count in Naracoorte EVC would projected ON ahead before postal etc 51.7%. But booth is not entirely representative and postals to come. Still too close to call. 3/4
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Tom Connell
Tom Connell@tomwconnell·
Still waiting on postal / absent votes, and 2cp distribution, in SA Election. Seats left to call are Heysen, Mackillop, Morphett, Narungga. 1/4
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Tom Connell
Tom Connell@tomwconnell·
Highest ever test score without a century is 531. 20 to go! #ausv
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Tony
Tony@tonyvink·
@tomwconnell mate, let Jacinta Price comment go you like a dog with a bone and all of us are already thinking about desert.🤦‍♂️
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Tom Connell
Tom Connell@tomwconnell·
@1116sen @SENBreakfast We need AI Kane to respond to Kane's justification: All i am hearing there if i'm being frank is a pretty vague explanation. Like, back in your decision. Own it. What did we get? Some examples of other players who should not have been AA captain. It's an embarrassment, frankly.
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SEN 1116
SEN 1116@1116sen·
Kane explains the decision for Jeremy Cameron to be named the All-Aus captain. #TJM | #AFL | @SENBreakfast
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Tom Connell
Tom Connell@tomwconnell·
Recount done. Margin 175. Daniel has conceded. Wilson elected. Close thread.
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Tom Connell
Tom Connell@tomwconnell·
The first major ‘data entry error’ will be revealed tomorrow in Goldstein, closing the margin by 50 votes. Will mean about 180 lead to Wilson. Recount quite advanced now (70% plus) so would still take something unusual to get close.
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Tom Connell
Tom Connell@tomwconnell·
Goldstein - i am told about half of the partial recount done. Wilson lead down from 260 to 244. Two big prepoll and some other vote (postal etc) to go. Staus quo remains - only major 'wrong pile' or 'data entry' errors from here would change things.
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Tom Connell
Tom Connell@tomwconnell·
Numbers out now on NSW senate - at final exclusion One Nation 635k to ALP 618k for the 6th spot in NSW. Similarly close contest to WA.
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Tom Connell
Tom Connell@tomwconnell·
Bradfield - back to dead level! 56,135 votes each. About half of the regular booths have been counted. Other vote is being counted but not clear how much. Another week to go. No clear trend but interesting to note Kapterian lead got out to 14 votes early on in recount.
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Tom Connell
Tom Connell@tomwconnell·
NSW senate - button has been pushed. Bit of an upset with 6th spot going to One Nation - details next live on @SkyNewsAust
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Tom Connell
Tom Connell@tomwconnell·
Boele closes again. Margin to Kapterain now just 5 votes. Early trend away from Boele seems to have evaporated. 18 booths recounted so far, would be only a few % of the vote so a long way to go.
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Tom Connell
Tom Connell@tomwconnell·
Good result in the last booth re-counted in Bradfield for Boele, closes the Kapterian lead to 10 votes. Most corrections have been against her so far so she needed that to avoid it looking like a trend.
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Tom Connell
Tom Connell@tomwconnell·
And we have action in the Goldstein recount! Caulfield South booth checked, +1 for Wilson, lead 261. These sorts of corrections will have no impact, would have to be incorrect data entries or mislabeled piles to change the result from here.
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Tom Connell
Tom Connell@tomwconnell·
It was a close-run thing for Labor to secure the 6th spot in the Victorian senate ahead of One Nation. Details coming up live on @SkyNewsAust
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Tom Connell
Tom Connell@tomwconnell·
Latest exclusion published, confirming Labor as a HOLD as they get to 48% on the 3CP count, and need less than 10% of remaining Lib vote to hold off independent Moore.
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Tom Connell
Tom Connell@tomwconnell·
I have now seen scrutineer numbers which make this a definite labor HOLD, with greens preferences going at nearly 70% to labor. First govt since 1966 to not lose a single seat at an election.
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Tom Connell
Tom Connell@tomwconnell·
Calwell - strong gain for Ind Moore of last preference distribution. She is now going to make the final 2. And needs a very achievable 64.6% of remaining preferences to get ahead of Labor. Genuine winning chance from here.
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Tom Connell
Tom Connell@tomwconnell·
The full distribution of preferences that saw big changes of vote only looked at excluded candidates. AEC says it is confident this was carried out with rigor, but will now conduct an initial count of votes 1 for Wilson or Daniel, in part to ensure confidence in result.
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Tom Connell
Tom Connell@tomwconnell·
BREAKING - there will be a partial recount in Goldstein. Zoe Daniel wanted full recount. Instead it will be a partial recount re-examining all first preference ballot papers for Tim Wilson and Zoe Daniel, and all informal votes. Margin 260 so would take something unusual to flip.
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Tom Connell
Tom Connell@tomwconnell·
Recount being considered in Goldstein. Basis would likely be bc of big changes in vote during the third count, rather than margin of 260. The fluctuations were unusual rather than unprecedented. Would not shock if there is a recount, but would shock if flips result.
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