Tor Bair 🧑‍🍳

8.7K posts

Tor Bair 🧑‍🍳 banner
Tor Bair 🧑‍🍳

Tor Bair 🧑‍🍳

@TorBair

Building + funding things. Writing/podding @arewecookedhq. Advising via @honestpiratexyz. Formerly: @SecretNetwork, @MIT, @Snap, trading, data sci, pirate 🏴‍☠️

Chicago, IL Katılım Şubat 2014
750 Takip Edilen21.1K Takipçiler
Sabitlenmiş Tweet
Tor Bair 🧑‍🍳
Tor Bair 🧑‍🍳@TorBair·
Introducing @arewecookedhq - my newest experiment. AI is accelerating. Reality is fragmenting. Why can't the smartest, most informed, most powerful people agree on what's happening? And what does that mean for the rest of us? Are We Cooked? is a public investigation into what’s actually happening with our technology, its new capabilities, and the consequences. I’ll bring all my weird experience and abundant free time to bear—through original writing, podcasts, guest interviews, and the occasional applied deep-dive—and I’m hoping you’ll contribute too. Why is this so hard to untangle? Well, the cost of content is approaching zero, our online echo chambers are fracturing, and everyone has blind spots and conflicts of interest. That's why you can read a thousand thought-pieces, fall down endless YouTube rabbitholes, and feel further from the truth than when you started. Or, you could let me torture myself with that burden instead. I attempt to sort fact from fiction, separate hype from reality, and try to understand why smart, informed people keep arriving at wildly different conclusions about the present and future. I’ll show my work, make predictions I can be held accountable for, and update when I’m wrong. I can't wait to share some of what I've been cooking up. In the meantime, please share your stories, your recommendations for topics, and tag your ideal guests.
Tor Bair 🧑‍🍳 tweet media
English
6
5
19
2.2K
Tor Bair 🧑‍🍳 retweetledi
Daniel Jeffries
Daniel Jeffries@Dan_Jeffries1·
Please please please. I'm on my knees begging every AI exec on the planet. Just stop with this stuff. Stop. Just give us models. Let the collective distributed intelligence of people figure things out in real time like we always do. Let people adapt. It's what we do. It's all just so tiresome. We just want models. We'll figure it out. We promise. We don't need societal level surgery and UBI and robot taxes and ham-fisted legislation and populists politicians passing dumb law after dumb law and lobbying groups and all this craziness. We are not giving birth to magic super miracle machines that suddenly invalidate every single pattern of the entirety of human history and technological development. We're not. Really. AI is amazing. It's wonderful. But it's not magic. Can we please just let AI be cool and useful and problematic in realistic ways instead of all this crazy talk? We are hallucinating at a collective scale. It's a madness really. A societal meme level madness. Just give us a products please and leave all the politics in the garage. Stop proposing societal level surgery with drastic measures for things that have not happened and may not happen and probably won't happen. Just stop.
Mike Allen@mikeallen

🚨🚨@sama tells me he feels such URGENCY about the power of coming AI models that @OpenAI is unveiling a New Deal for superintelligence - ideas to wake up DC He says AI will soon be so mindbending that we need a new social contract 👇Altman's top 6 ideas axios.com/2026/04/06/beh…

English
121
147
1.4K
238.9K
Tor Bair 🧑‍🍳 retweetledi
Luis Garicano 🇪🇺🇺🇦
Luis Garicano 🇪🇺🇺🇦@lugaricano·
Famously (there is a beautiful Works in Progress piece on this) in 2016, Geoffrey Hinton told an audience in Toronto that medical schools should stop training radiologists, since AI would soon outperform them at reading scans. Ten years later, there are more radiologists than ever, and they earn more than they did then. Hinton was right about the task, but he was wrong (so far!) on the future of the radiology profession. Times have never been better for them. The gap between those two claims, the difference between tasks and jobs, is the subject of a paper I have written with Jin Li and Yanhui Wu, and that we release today: "Weak Bundle, Strong Bundle: How AI Redraws Job Boundaries." (Very relatedly we are also finishing the first draft of our book "Messy Jobs" on AI and Jobs!! You will be the first to hear). We start from the observation that the growing literature on AI and labor markets measures the AI shock by task exposure: people count how many tasks AI can perform in a given occupation AI can perform, and infer that more exposure means more displacement. Eloundou et al. published a paper in Science in 2024 that started this literature, and many follow the same logic. The inference they make is that the more exposed tasks, the worse the outcomes. This is incomplete, because labor markets price jobs, not tasks. A radiologist does not just sell image classification, but does many other jobs: triages cases, communicates with other physicians, trains residents, makes the difficult decisions, and signs a diagnosis. The market buys a bundled service. The question AI poses is not whether it can do one task inside the bundle. The question is whether that task can be pulled out. Thread (1/3) dropbox.com/scl/fo/689u1g7…
Luis Garicano 🇪🇺🇺🇦 tweet media
English
42
440
1.8K
372.4K
Ethan Mollick
Ethan Mollick@emollick·
Also performance in MOBAs like League of Legends correlates with IQ but performance in FPSs like Battlefield 3, Destiny, etc. don't show the same correlation with intelligence. And guild leaders in World of Warcraft were more likely to be good leaders in real life
Ethan Mollick tweet mediaEthan Mollick tweet mediaEthan Mollick tweet media
English
14
16
330
20.3K
Tor Bair 🧑‍🍳
Tor Bair 🧑‍🍳@TorBair·
Brilliant post by @natolambert articulating some blockers for "fast take-off" of AI. We're bottlenecked by parallelization. Agents cannot be easily coordinated or delegated to (conflicting or unclear goal functions, noisy communication, lossy learning). Where are the limits?
Nathan Lambert@natolambert

I've been grappling with why I obviously see self-improvement with AI models being real but fast take-off being fake. I present Lossy Self Improvement as a way to capture the curse of complexity & diminishing returns in a world of self-improvement. interconnects.ai/p/lossy-self-i…

English
3
3
30
11K
Tor Bair 🧑‍🍳
Tor Bair 🧑‍🍳@TorBair·
@anistotle_ I worked closely w previous iterations of the Messari team; they've always had good employees and unclear product direction (and unpredictable pricing). They were essentially a talent pipeline for independent funds who bought subscriptions to access recruiting their analysts :P
English
0
0
2
190
Ani
Ani@anistotle_·
I get lots of messages like this/inbound 'can you write this' & the ppl I like working w the most are fast & serious. Crypto is interesting here bc they move fast on trades but some will waste weeks on writing/nailing down specifics tho thought leadership is what sets you apart
Ani tweet media
Sam@0xCryptoSam

Unfortunately, my team got cut in the layoffs. A disappointing outcome to an otherwise fantastic experience. I’m very grateful to have been a Messari Research Analyst. What I can confidently say is that quality thought-leadership is presently the most undervalued resource in crypto. The mediocrity of AI-driven writing and reasoning has convinced many that it is a suitable replacement for a research analyst. I promise you - it isn’t. Frontier technologies today (crypto, AI, robotics, quantum) are hyper-ideological and incredibly contentious. We’re entering a new era that demands human judgement and debate. LLMs will tell you what’s consensus. Ask any LLM today if an intelligent person should pivot from crypto to AI; they all say yes. We need thought-leaders willing to play 4D chess in public and get a couple moves wrong before they win the match. Humanity is incredibly undervalued in the 21st century. Lastly, the talent density at Messari was unlike anything I’ve ever seen. Any crypto companies hiring should reach out to myself, Diran, or any of the Messari folks directly to get in contact if you’re looking to hire.

English
2
0
9
2.1K
Tor Bair 🧑‍🍳 retweetledi
Operation Epic CMS
Operation Epic CMS@cmsholdings·
Prediction markets slowly becoming front ends for Chicago prop desks to over derivatives to uninformed intl order flow and very little to do with predictions
English
8
2
91
7.8K
Tor Bair 🧑‍🍳 retweetledi
ₕₐₘₚₜₒₙ
ₕₐₘₚₜₒₙ@hamptonism·
If you want to have an advantage in the age of Ai, learn Game Theory.
English
92
245
3.4K
214.5K
Santiago R Santos
Santiago R Santos@santiagoroel·
I have a stake in the success of prediction markets. That's exactly why I wrote this. Prediction markets need to take a stronger position on insider trading. Simple as that. The hard definitional questions, like where exactly the line falls between a well-informed trader and a genuine insider, can be worked out over time, the same way case law always does. But that process must start somewhere, and starting it voluntarily is always better than waiting for a regulator to start it for you. The fix is not complicated: a single disclosure at trade entry stating that if you have material non-public information about this event, or the ability to directly influence its outcome, trading is prohibited under our terms. Oh, and update the ToS while you're at it. That single acknowledgment establishes a norm, and norms are what the deepest liquidity markets run on. Thank you for your attention to this matter! obviously.substack.com/p/prediction-m…
English
14
12
115
8.3K
alz
alz@alz_zyd_·
Intelligence is now free and the golden age of the nerd is over
English
175
127
1.7K
77.2K
Arpit Gupta
Arpit Gupta@arpitrage·
@alz_zyd_ Nerds had one brief moment in the sun and immediately invented their replacements
English
3
5
61
3.1K
Claire Kart
Claire Kart@clairekart·
Over the next month I’m going to spend more time on LinkedIn Want to figure out what crypto sentiment looks like over there plus I love figuring out platforms I’m not as native to Any advice?
English
33
0
61
4.3K
Tor Bair 🧑‍🍳
Tor Bair 🧑‍🍳@TorBair·
I put the % chance that we will reach consensus on the definition of AGI by 2027 at 0%
English
0
0
4
212
Tor Bair 🧑‍🍳
Tor Bair 🧑‍🍳@TorBair·
@alexolegimas Say more about RA + AI. What is the separation between their capacities and yours with AI augmentation for both? Is this disrupting or supporting the RA -> professor growth ladder?
English
1
0
2
686
Alex Imas
Alex Imas@alexolegimas·
I love the work Alexander has been doing. But here is where we disagree: both academic articles and the work of juniors/RAs are equilibrium objects. Yes, AI can (or soon will be) able to write the types of articles we've written *in the past*. That means that new articles will just be better. Many of those working heavily with AI have seen their workflow, idea generation, research process change drastically with these tools. They are writing very different papers. The alpha will be in writing papers with AI that AI cannot do on its own. From my own experience: I am not writing more papers, I'm writing very different papers, ones I would have not been able to write before. This is incredibly exciting (for me, maybe not "the world"). @lugaricano has said similar things on here. Regarding juniors and RAs, I have to admit there was a few weeks in January where I had little work for my RAs. I did think: maybe there will no longer be an RA role. But then I sat them down, taught them how to use Claude Code, then Codex, gave them access to it, and now they're busier than ever (Jevons paradox for work). So yes, the types of things they were doing before have been largely replaced by AI, but RA + AI is incredibly useful. @cblatts made a similar point here as well. All of this to say that science will change. I'm very worried about implications of AI for labor market, but not for science: it will be a huge positive and boon for humanity. (all of my statements above are not future proof btw, the centaur phase may be more temporary than I expect).
Alexander Kustov@akoustov

My two posts on AI in academia got over a million views and a thousand angry responses. I got a few things wrong. I stand by the rest. But most people reacted to the headline, not the arguments. So here are all 20 theses laid out. Tell me which ones you actually disagree with 🧵

English
14
49
326
109.1K
Tor Bair 🧑‍🍳
Tor Bair 🧑‍🍳@TorBair·
It is hard to balance my interest in monitoring the situation and putting 10,000 hours into Slay the Spire II
English
0
2
2
224

Keşfet

@emollick @mattparlmer @natolambert @anistotle_ @cmsholdings @santiagoroel @alz_zyd_ @arpitrage