LOUIS WOOLF

Chip and AI names started the week on a positive note. Shares of Micron rolled up 4% early gains today, accompanied by solid upward moves in shares of Western Digital (WDC) and SanDisk (SNDK) after Micron's South Korean rival SK Hynix rose more than 5% earlier. Beyond the memory side of the chip market, shares of Intel (INTC) and Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) also made 2.5% gains. Nvidia (NVDA) hosts its shareholder meeting Wednesday. SpaceX (SPCX) fell 4.6% early today, making it one of the worst-performing large stocks in the market. At around $175 per share, the stock still trades well above last week's low point of just below $150. Though not a member of the S&P 500, the stock is expected to get fast-track approval to the Nasdaq-100® (NDX), Reuters reported, perhaps within a month. KeyBanc initiated coverage of the stock with a "sector weight" rating. Shares of crypto-related stocks, including Strategy (MSTR), climbed early today as bitcoin futures edged up. Alphabet (GOOGL) fell 2.14% in early action, possibly hurt by a Reuters report that a U.S. scientist planned to leave Google DeepMind to join AI startup Anthropic. Some energy stocks climbed in early action despite a sharp drop in the price of crude oil. U.S. crude futures fell 0.13% and traded below $77 per barrel on news of progress over the weekend in peace talks between Iran and the U.S., specifically on the status of the conflict in Lebanon and the establishment of a line of communications between Iran and the U.S. to avoid incidents in the strait, Barron's reported. Chevron (CVX) rose 1.4% after announcing a 20-year agreement with Microsoft (MSFT) to provide electricity to a data center Microsoft is building in Texas. Playboy (PLBY) rose 6% after the company announced it was repurchasing 16.6 million shares. Apogee Therapeutics (APGE) soared 47% this morning on news it has entered a definitive agreement to be acquired by AbbVie (ABBV) for $135.11 per share. DATA FROM JP MORGAN & SCHWAB.

Major indexes wobbled early, seeking direction after a long weekend that included tense negotiations between the U.S. and Iran and mixed signals on the Strait of Hormuz, where shipping traffic remains sparse. Today's calendar is devoid of major economic and earnings news, but things ramp up as the week progresses. Thursday brings May Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) prices as well as the third estimate of first quarter GDP. Earnings are light from a calendar perspective but potentially heavy in terms of impact this week thanks to scheduled reports from FedEx (FDX) late Tuesday and Micron (MU) late Wednesday. Chip shares rose this morning, giving the Nasdaq Composite a tailwind. This week includes several large Treasury auctions beginning with one for $69 billion in 2-year notes tomorrow. Results could help determine the path of yields, which remain elevated despite lower oil prices. The 10-year note yield briefly hit 4.5% overnight for the first time since June 12 and is increasingly divorced from oil. Stocks ended last week on a positive note, paring some of Wednesday's Federal Reserve-driven  losses. The S&P 500 Index climbed 0.93% last week, while the Nasdaq ended the week 2.4% higher. Friday's move wasn't a particularly broad rally, however, as just five of the 11 S&P 500 sectors closed higher. More policy-sensitive short-term Treasury yields continued their climb after the hawkish Fed meeting, flattening the yield curve as futures trading built in 70% chances of a rate hike by September, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. DATA FROM JP MORGAN & SCHWAB

Crude oil futures (/CL) prices fell on Thursday after the International Energy Agency (IEA) cut its oil demand outlook for the year.   In its latest monthly report, the IEA cut its demand outlook to 1.1 million barrels per day year-over-year in 2026, down 700,000 barrels per day from its previous estimate.  However, the IEA also noted that global oil supply fell to 94.5 million barrels per day in May, down 600,000 barrels per day month-on-month. In its Weekly Petroleum Status Report, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said crude oil stockpiles declined by 8.3-million barrels during the week ending June 12. This was above expectations for a 4.6-million barrel storage draw. Oil inventories, excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, stood at 418.2 million barrels, 6% below the five-year average. U.S. oil production rose by 7,000 barrels per day last week, averaging 13.806 million barrels per day. This was 375,000 barrels per day higher than one year ago. On the oil product side, distillate inventories 1ncreased by 1-million barrels, which was contrary to expectations for a 500,000 barrel draw. Distillate inventories are now 13% below the five-year average for this time of year. Gasoline inventories declined by 900,000 barrels, which was slightly below expectations for a 1-million barrel draw. These stockpiles are now 6% below the five-year average. EIA said gasoline production increased from the previous week and averaged 10.1-million barrels per day. Distillate production declined last week, averaging 5.2-million barrels per day. The agency also reported that U.S. ethanol production declined last week, averaging 1.102 million barrels per day. Expectations were for a decline to 1.105 million barrels per day. U.S. ethanol inventories were unchanged at 24.5 million barrels last week. Traders were expecting inventories of 24.2 million barrels. Digging further into the EIA report, refinery utilization increased by 1.4 percentage points to 96.7% last week. Expectations were for an increase to 96%. U.S. gasoline demand increased by 481,000 barrels per day to 9.212 million barrels per day. Distillate demand fell last week, declining by 205,000 barrels per day to 3.659 million barrels per day. Oil storage in Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery point for the WTI Crude Oil futures (/CL) contract, fell by 1.6-million barrels last week to 20-million barrels. The U.S. crude oil rig count rose by two last week to 433 rigs during the reporting period ending June 12. That is down 1.4% from a year ago according to energy services firm Baker Hughes’ North American Rotary Rig Count report. U.S. stock index futures were mixed early this morning, with the Nasdaq-100® (+0.10%), the Dow Jones Industrial Average® (+0.02%), and the Russell 2000® (+0.17%) higher, but the S&P 500® (–0.10%), trading lower.  In Asia, major indexes closed mixed, with the Shanghai (+1,78%) and the Nikkei (+1.55%) higher, but the Hang Seng (–0.65%) lower.  In Europe, markets were mixed by midday, with the FTSE (+0.41%) trading higher, but the DAX (–0.10%) and the CAC (–0.50%) posting losses.  Futures on the move Natural gas futures (/NGN26) ended Friday’s session higher (+2.80%), supported by a lower than expected storage build during the last reporting period.  The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that U.S. natural gas inventories increased by 73 billion cubic feet (Bcf) during the week ending June 12. That was below expectations for a 75 Bcf storage build. U.S. gas inventories are currently 5.8% above the five-year average and 1% below year-ago levels. The National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center expects temperatures from June 25 through July 1 to range from near normal to above normal across most of the Lower 48. Below-normal temperatures are expected across Iowa and parts of Nebraska, South Dakota, North Dakota, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Illinois, Missouri, and Kansas during . DATA FROM JP MORGAN & SCHWAB

FATHER'S DAY 1998 IN WACO, TEXAS ... MY LATE DAD WAS MY AGE 73, AT THE TIME...WE ALL WENT TO THE RIDGEWOOD COUNTRY CLUB FOR LUNCH.....

GEE, WHY DOESNT FUCK HEAD TRUMP PARDON THIS PIECE OF SHIT, AS HE FITS INTO THE MAGA-TRUMP-EPSTEIN MENTALITY?

Mangione to Use Emotional Disturbance as Defense in N.Y. Murder Trial nytimes.com/2026/06/17/nyr…

TAKEN AT THE DEDICATION OF THE OBAMA PRESIDENTIAL LIBRARY!....NORMALCY!!!! YA HEAR THAT DONALD?????

Shares of Jabil Inc. (JBL + $20.02 to $395.53) are gapping up to all-time highs this morning after the provider of engineering, manufacturing and supply chain solutions reported fiscal Q3 adjusted earnings of $3.16 per share ($0.06 beat) on Q3 revenue that increased 11.79% year-over-year (YoY) to $8.751B (above the $8.605B expected). The company also raised guidance as FY2026 EPS is now expected to be $12.70 (from $12.25 and the $12.38 consensus estimate) and FY2026 sales now expected to be ~$35.0B (from $34.0B). Calls are outnumbering puts ~4:3 with the June 18th 450.00 call leading the way (volume is 883). Also trading to the upside this morning is La-Z-Boy Inc. (LZB + $5.55 to $40.61) after the furniture retailer reported fiscal Q4 adjusted EPS of $1.26 ($0.44 beat) on Q4 sales that were flat YoY to $570.3M (slightly above the $569.2M expected). LZB also authorized a $300M share repurchase plan, which replaces the previous program. Looking ahead, the company guided Q1 revenue to a range of $490-510M versus the $495.44M analysts had expected. Calls and puts are trading roughly even with the June 18th 40.00 put seeing the most action from traders (volume is 607). New 52-week highs (112 new highs today): Applied Materials Inc. (AMAT + $44.17 to $612.40), Citigroup Inc. (C + $2.93 to $145.92), Viking Holdings Ltd. (VIK + $1.79 to $95.83) Notable Call Activity Some unusual call activity (~15:1 calls over puts) is being seen in Sarepta Therapeutics Inc. (SRPT + $1.32 to $17.10) as option traders primarily target the July 17th 20.00 call. Volume on this contract is 5,502 versus open interest of 671, so we know that the volume primarily represents fresh positioning. The bulk of the volume is being attributed to several large to mid-sized blocks (2,670, 333, 333, 332, 332, etc.) that were bought around the same time at the ask price of $0.30 each, which suggests bullish intent. Today's Bearish Activity Shares of CarMax Inc. (KMX - $3.76 to $48.35) are trading lower this morning after the used car retailer beat quarterly estimates but warned that lower margins on vehicle sales will persist in the future. KMX reported Q1 earnings of $1.31 per share ($0.37 beat) on Q1 revenue that increased 6.19% YoY to $8.014B (above the $7.41B expected). The company’s gross profit per unit declined $230 YoY to $2,177/vehicle. On the earnings call, KMX management reiterated that it expects lower gross profit per retail unit this fiscal year, adding that it will continue to make price adjustments to stay competitive while using operational efficiencies to offset some of the margin impact. Calls and puts are trading roughly even with the June 18th 50.00 put being the highest volume contract (volume is 1,559). Also trading to the downside this morning is IQVIA Holdings Inc. (IQV - $6.42 to $172.74) after Morgan Stanley downgraded the provider of clinical research services to “Equal Weight” from “Overweight” and cut their price target on the stock to $200.00 from $225.00. Analysts at Morgan Stanley said that investors are increasingly debating whether pharmaceutical companies could use AI tools to bring functions such as data management, statistical analysis and medical writing in-house, which has the potential to reduce reliance on outsourced research providers over time. Option volume is relatively light with the June 18th 170.00 put being the highest volume contract (volume is 108). New 52-week lows (67 new lows today): Comcast Corp. (CMCSA - $0.57 to $23.09), Gartner Inc. (IT - $2.07 to $140.17), Salesforce Inc. (CRM - $3.02 to $158.69) Notable Put Activity Some unusual put activity (~7:1 put over calls) is being seen in Dow Inc. (DOW + $0.32 to $33.28) which is primarily being driven by a couple of large blocks that simultaneously traded on the July 10th expiration earlier this morning: 31.00 put (open interest is 259): An 8,000 contract block was bought at the ask price of $0.65. DATA FROM JP MORGAN AND SCHWAB.

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Earnings lull turns focus outward: Although the start of second quarter earnings season is still a month away, there are a handful of firms worth watching this week, including Kroger (KR), Accenture (ACN), and CarMax (KMX). Checking ahead, S&P 500 earnings growth is seen at 21.9% year over year in the second quarter, down from 28.8% in the first quarter and 23.2% for the calendar year, FactSet said. And for calendar year 2027, analysts see 16.2% year-over-year growth even as comparisons to year-ago levels get tougher. This goes a long way toward explaining the current record highs in stocks, and earnings strength looks extended well beyond the usual tech and communication services sectors, judging from FactSet's updated estimates. Energy is expected to lead the earnings growth pack this year with 66% annual gains, not a major surprise for anyone who's filled their tank recently. Info tech earnings are expected to climb nearly 45%, but materials earnings gains of nearly 40% and consumer discretionary gains of 14% offer evidence that the earnings surge goes beyond simply war and AI-related metrics. Volatility dips, but for how long? With investors pleased by news of Middle East progress, the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) dipped below 17 on Monday, down from peaks of more than 23 in the middle of last week when chip stocks were running for cover and Middle East tensions were rising. At current VIX levels, the market prices in average daily moves of about 1%. That's down from 1.5% a week ago. The easing volatility might be short-lived, thanks in part to scheduled options expiration later this week. This would normally be a Friday event, but it's Thursday due to Friday's holiday closure. As options roll off, there could be some choppiness, especially Thursday, and also considering the recent pick-up in options trading among retail investors. As AI firms take on debt, investors yawn: On Monday, Nvidia (NVDA) might have surprised investors by announcing its first corporate bond sale in five years. The sale raised $25 billion, according to Bloomberg. This follows earlier bond offerings this year from Meta (META) and Alphabet (GOOGL), both of which sought cash to drive their AI spending, which is expected to total $700 billion industry-wide this year. Though Oracle (ORCL) shares got punished last week for the company's plans to raise more money, Nvidia shares simply seemed to shrug off similar news. Nvidia decided to raise cash despite having $62.5 billion in cash and short-term investments and free cash flow of $49 billion in the first quarter of its fiscal 2027. With so much demand in the AI markets, investors don't seem ready to punish Nvidia for issuing debt rather than simply tapping its balance sheet. Nvidia holds its annual stockholders meeting a week from tomorrow, perhaps offering investors a chance to tune in for explanation of Nvidia's choice here. DATA FROM JP MORGAN & SCHWAB.

Retail sales surged in May despite the war, up 0.9% from April versus expectations for 0.5% and April's 0.4% rise. Major indexes tracked flat to higher early today as chips began recovering from Tuesday's slide, though yields stayed slightly up and held gains after the robust data reinforced impressions of a solid economy. New Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh steps into the spotlight later today at a Fed meeting where rates aren't expected to change but the overall atmosphere could evolve appreciably. Barring geopolitical rumblings, major indexes may trade in a tight range ahead of the Warsh press conference expected after the Fed's 2 p.m. ET decision. Stocks were mixed on Tuesday, as the Dow Jones Industrial Average rallied within a hair's breadth of 52,000, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite pared recent gains. Seven of 11 S&P 500 sectors closed higher. The Fed meeting is the last major item on this week's schedule excepting a few minor earnings reports, and U.S. markets are closed Friday for Juneteenth. This could potentially mean choppy trading, especially tomorrow, as investors react to the Fed and options expire on what's traditionally called the quarterly "triple witching" day.

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BREAKING: the first photos of the New World screwworm - which has officially crossed the border into Texas and is an extremely dangerous and lethal parasitic blowfly whose larvae feed exclusively on the living flesh of animals and humans - has been released. #Screwworm

Earnings lull turns focus outward: Although the start of second quarter earnings season is still a month away, there are a handful of firms worth watching this week, including Kroger (KR), Accenture (ACN), and CarMax (KMX). Checking ahead, S&P 500 earnings growth is seen at 21.9% year over year in the second quarter, down from 28.8% in the first quarter and 23.2% for the calendar year, FactSet said. And for calendar year 2027, analysts see 16.2% year-over-year growth even as comparisons to year-ago levels get tougher. This goes a long way toward explaining the current record highs in stocks, and earnings strength looks extended well beyond the usual tech and communication services sectors, judging from FactSet's updated estimates. Energy is expected to lead the earnings growth pack this year with 66% annual gains, not a major surprise for anyone who's filled their tank recently. Info tech earnings are expected to climb nearly 45%, but materials earnings gains of nearly 40% and consumer discretionary gains of 14% offer evidence that the earnings surge goes beyond simply war and AI-related metrics. Volatility dips, but for how long? With investors pleased by news of Middle East progress, the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) dipped below 17 on Monday, down from peaks of more than 23 in the middle of last week when chip stocks were running for cover and Middle East tensions were rising. At current VIX levels, the market prices in average daily moves of about 1%. That's down from 1.5% a week ago. The easing volatility might be short-lived, thanks in part to scheduled options expiration later this week. This would normally be a Friday event, but it's Thursday due to Friday's holiday closure. As options roll off, there could be some choppiness, especially Thursday, and also considering the recent pick-up in options trading among retail investors. As AI firms take on debt, investors yawn: On Monday, Nvidia (NVDA) might have surprised investors by announcing its first corporate bond sale in five years. The sale raised $25 billion, according to Bloomberg. This follows earlier bond offerings this year from Meta (META) and Alphabet (GOOGL), both of which sought cash to drive their AI spending, which is expected to total $700 billion industry-wide this year. Though Oracle (ORCL) shares got punished last week for the company's plans to raise more money, Nvidia shares simply seemed to shrug off similar news. Nvidia decided to raise cash despite having $62.5 billion in cash and short-term investments and free cash flow of $49 billion in the first quarter of its fiscal 2027. With so much demand in the AI markets, investors don't seem ready to punish Nvidia for issuing debt rather than simply tapping its balance sheet. Nvidia holds its annual stockholders meeting a week from tomorrow, perhaps offering investors a chance to tune in for explanation of Nvidia's choice here. DATA FROM JP MORGAN & SCHWAB.

Although gold is often thought of by investors as an inflation and currency hedge for portfolios, historic numbers tend to show positive correlations between the metal and equity indexes through bull markets.  This correlation factor, although positive, tends to be weaker than during periods of high inflation.  This begs the question for our current economic environment.  Are we in a bull market or a period of high inflation?  As of right now Gold Futures (/GC) are strongly correlated with the E-mini S&P 500 (/ES) index future sitting at a reading of positive 0.71486.  According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Core CPI (Consumer Price Index) measuring all items came in with a reading of 4.2 percent during May representing its highest point since April 2023.  Common indicators that could define a bull market include strong GDP (Gross domestic product) growth, high liquidity, increases in merger/acquisition/IPO (initial public offerings), and strong corporate earnings.  Looking at a five year chart of GDP from the FRED website or St. Louis Federal Reserve, we notice strong GDP growth from 22 trillion to 32 trillion.  From a liquidity perspective, money market funds (total financial asset levels) equal 8.2 trillion as of Q1 2026 according to the FRED site.  Kevin Warsh, the new Chairman of the Federal Reserve who replaced Jerome Powell, did mention that he plans to cut the Fed’s balance sheet which will arguably decrease liquidity in the market.  This is also known as quantitative tightening.  IPO activity in 2026 has picked up substantially from a notional perspective compared to 2025.  Year to date we have seen 73 IPOs, which excludes the 108 SPAC offerings, compared to last year’s 347 IPOs in total.  While that number is lower the total proceeds of 110.9 billion year to date raised already trumps the 70 billion for all of last year.  US corporate earnings are also experiencing a period of substantial growth.  With roughly 79 percent of companies beating analyst estimates, the S&P is expected to produce earnings growth of 24 percent year over year. The historical median expected earnings growth by S&P companies sits at 10.7 percent.  While there isn’t one key likely factor contributing towards this market’s returns, it is important to consider the implications of both sides.  Based on the correlation reading between gold (/GC) and (/ES), it suggests that higher than expected inflation is driving asset returns as opposed to a strong bull market.  Correlations between gold and equities do not always remain positive.  Although this indicator is not to be seen as a fear gauge, it can be leading for investor expectations surrounding periods of uncertainty.  If the correlation turns negative for a prolonged period of time, such as the Dot-Com Bust (2000-2002) the Global Financial Crisis (2008) or the Covid-19 Pandemic (2020), gold tends to outperform as a tangible store of value.  One other contributing factor that could strengthen the current correlation between gold and equities would be the strong demand for the commodity in certain sectors that contribute to their growth percentage.  One such example would be data centers.  Gold is highly conductive, immune to corrosion, and extremely malleable. US tech giants are on track to spend roughly 700 billion for the year on data center infrastructure, which is up from 387 billion in 2025.  The hyperscalers or “big four” are projected to put 80-90 percent of their total CapEx spend towards data centers.  It is estimated the Amazon is projected to spend 200 billion in CapEx, Google (Alphabet)190 billion, Microsoft190 billion, and Meta 135 billion.  DATA FROM JP MORGAN & SCHWAB.