tdubw

114 posts

tdubw

tdubw

@tracyokay

not much to say

USA Katılım Mart 2013
211 Takip Edilen106 Takipçiler
tdubw
tdubw@tracyokay·
@pepemoonboy Sell a call for $700 7/17/26 exp. for $13.50 premium today!
English
3
0
1
600
Pepe Invests
Pepe Invests@pepemoonboy·
This is CRAZY. $META has the following monthly active users for each app: - Facebook = 3.07 billion monthly users - Instagram = 3 billion monthly users - WhatsApp = 3 billion monthly users If only 1% of the users for each app pay for the monthly subscription, they’ll generate $332m a month in revenue, $3.98 BILLION annualized. Now, if 5% of the users for each app pay for the monthly subscription, they’ll generate $1.66B a month in revenue, $19.9 BILLION annualized. Don’t even get me started on what 10%, to 15%, or 20% adoption would look like… Now you understand why I have been so bullish on $META? Their distribution network IS their moat.
Shay Boloor@StockSavvyShay

$META is reportedly testing paid subscription tiers across its apps: • Instagram Plus: $3.99/month • Facebook Plus: $3.99/month • WhatsApp Plus: $2.99/month Meta is turning extra app features into another recurring revenue layer across its massive user base.

English
117
63
813
292.2K
Chris Camillo
Chris Camillo@ChrisCamillo·
@tracyokay I wish that were true. But “lots” is still way too few compared to the number of men investing.
English
1
0
4
525
AK
AK@KostCapital·
I swear the greatest social arb traders ever are young women. I’ve seen it in every girl i’ve dated. They are on top of every trend by consuming IG, Pintrist, and Tiktok 24/7. There is no more informed group on trends in the world. The only problem… 99% of them have never considered investing.
English
12
3
109
67K
Jason Luongo
Jason Luongo@JasonL_Capital·
I collect premium every single week using the wheel strategy. It's 4 steps on repeat: Sell a cash-secured put on a stock I want to own. Get paid to wait for my price. If it stays above the strike - keep the premium, sell another put. If I get assigned - I now own shares at a discount. Sell covered calls against them and collect more premium while I hold. If shares get called away - sell puts again. Restart the cycle. Every step generates income. Assignment isn't a loss - it's the next phase of the strategy. Rules I follow: - Only wheel stocks I'd hold for a year - 0.20 delta, 30 DTE - Close at 50% profit - Roll down and out if needed rather than taking a loss Comment "Wheel" and I'll send you a pdf of my free Wheel Strategy Playbook.
Jason Luongo tweet media
English
187
19
137
18.5K
tdubw
tdubw@tracyokay·
@jtsla4 would you be willing to do a post on how buying calls works in general?
English
0
0
0
142
j
j@jtsla4·
I trade on a short term timeframe. On a long term timeframe I am extremely bullish $MU. If I say there’s no institutional activity I am not expecting a huge dump, I just expect options contracts to get burned, which is what I primarily trade.
English
3
1
26
4K
j
j@jtsla4·
Do y’all see this chop on $MU ? This chop is exactly why this info matters. A gap up isn’t automatically bullish. If there’s no continued institutional call activity behind the gap, the move often runs out of fuel and just stalls/chops while early buyers take profit. That’s how retail gets trapped: they FOMO calls at the highs with no sponsorship. Seeing “no institutional continuation” helps you stand down, protect capital, and wait for the next clean re-entry when real buying shows back up. This is especially valuable for options traders considering the high volatility and theta decay risks.
j@jtsla4

When a stock gaps up and you don’t see institutions continuing to buy at the highs, the move often has a higher chance to stall because the fuel that pushed it there isn’t still pushing. Why gap-ups often retrace or chop when there’s no call flow at highs The “new buyer” disappears A gap up is usually followed by: - Profit-taking from people who bought earlier - Trimming from funds that got the move they wanted - If there’s no fresh institutional call positioning, there may be no new wave of demand to absorb that selling. Gaps create overhead supply. A big up move creates a lot of: - Traders taking profits into strength - Trapped shorts covering (one-time buying) Once that initial burst is done, price needs new sponsorship to keep extending. Without it, the path becomes sideways/down to rebalance. The market needs to “rebuild” a base After a fast move, price often needs to: Consolidate Form support Retest key levels (VWAP, hourly 5, daily 5) That base-building is what makes the next continuation leg possible. If institutions aren’t buying at highs, it’s often because they’re waiting for that reset too. Follow-through requires continuous participation Strong trends usually show repeated interest over multiple windows. No call flow at highs is a signal that participation cooled, meaning follow-through probability drops and mean reversion probability rises. Why it’s more important to wait for a re-entry Because you want to enter when the trade becomes asymmetric again: After it resets into a level After selling pressure is absorbed When institutions show up again (fresh sponsorship) That’s when risk is cleaner and you’re not buying into someone else’s exit liquidity. Why “no call flow at highs” is valuable It’s not a bearish signal by itself — it’s a sponsorship signal: “Is real money still pressing this higher, or is the move running on fumes?” Blademap helps you avoid the classic mistake: buying strength when the fuel has already stopped. You take profit, let it stall/retrace, and then re-enter only when you see institutions step back in.

English
12
4
109
35.3K
tdubw
tdubw@tracyokay·
@jtsla4 That was fast!
English
0
0
0
1.1K
j
j@jtsla4·
Holyyyy $MU we are paid
English
3
1
68
12.6K
Pepe Invests
Pepe Invests@pepemoonboy·
X sentiment and momentum is real… These are the most talked about stocks of the week: 1. $DELL 2. $BB 3. $NOK 4. $INTC 5. $MU 6. $DRAM 7. $SNDK 8. $META 9. $NOW 10. $NBIS Almost all are up bigly. Any I’m missing?
English
64
21
450
45.6K
tdubw
tdubw@tracyokay·
@pepemoonboy Check out the premium for selling a put on $ARM. I sold a $170 put for $8.50. Expires 6/5/26
English
3
0
1
131
Pepe Invests
Pepe Invests@pepemoonboy·
Plenty of people folded today…not me. This frog made moves. I sold cash secured puts on $HIMS, $ONDS, and $ZETA. Deployed $14,650 in capital and pulled in $628 in premium. That’s a 4.3% monthly return on capital on relatively conservative strikes. My target is 2% per month, so I’ll take this all day. Learn how to sell options…you won’t regret it.
Pepe Invests tweet media
English
28
1
129
16.3K
Jason Luongo
Jason Luongo@JasonL_Capital·
I'm only going to say this once: LEAPS are by far the best way to grow a small account when done correctly. One contract. Exposure to 100 shares. A fraction of the cost. 12+ months of runway. Amplified returns. Defined max loss. No margin. No weeklies. No staring at charts all day. My results from LEAPS: - $IREN: 800% gain - $HOOD: 700% gain - $NVDA: 300% gain But this only works if you're disciplined about entry. Most people buy LEAPs at the wrong time, on the wrong stock, with the wrong strike and expiration. That's how a leveraged position bleeds to zero. There are specific conditions I look for before I enter, and specific rules around strike selection and expiration that keep the odds in my favor. Get those wrong and LEAPs will hurt you. Get them right and a small account can do things most people don't think are possible. Comment "LEAPS" and I'll send you my free cheat sheet - everything I use to find, structure, and manage these trades on one page.
Jason Luongo tweet media
English
1.4K
109
2.1K
267.5K
Chris Camillo
Chris Camillo@ChrisCamillo·
UBI won’t show up as $5k monthly checks overnight. It’s already here. Quiet. Expanding. Call it shadow UBI. Some will coast. Others will use it to build, solve, and raise the baseline for everyone. That split decides everything.
English
33
12
400
62.9K
amit
amit@amitisinvesting·
$PLTR Palantir down 12% over the past 2 days, here’s what I think is going on: - I don’t think Palantir is down because of the “war being over.” Other defense contractors are up after the ceasefire and this conflict only proved that demand for defense tech will be much, much greater over the next decade. This likely isn’t the reason. - No massive insider selling over the past few weeks. Didn’t see any major selling yesterday either on the initial drop. This could be a fund unwinding part of their position and taking profits, but not huge insider selling. Insider selling has rarely affected the stock, Thiel sold 2M shares at $140 last month and the stock didn’t budge. - The major reason it seems to be down stems from a new product that Anthropic has released around multi-agent orchestration. I haven’t studied the product in depth, but I don’t think the market has either. $CRM $ADBE $NOW all software names hit a new 52-week low today. $IGV, the software index, has $MSFT and $PLTR as the top 1 and 2 positions. Naturally when there is a software selloff, those two names will get hit hard. Now, I don’t think Microsoft (even with their copilot issues) deserves to be down 30% from the highs. I also don’t think Palantir (valuation is aggressive and could also be a reason for a selloff, but valuation has always been aggressive) which is doing 70% topline rev growth with 50% adjusted operating margins deserves to be down this much either. I know people are pointing to a Burry post about Palantir (which he now deleted) comparing them to Anthropic, but I think Burry doesn’t actually understand Palantir. He still thinks they can’t be an AI company if they don’t produce a LLM. He is also short so his incentive is to make people sell. Ultimately, don’t really see the reason for this outside of Palantir being lumped in with the index and unless their growth slows down, which we have seen zero signs of and not to also mention Palantir has the BEST growth in the entire software sector at 70%, then this selloff feels more systemic across the industry vs isolated to Palantir. $130 has been good support, if we lose $120 then I can imagine things getting uglier but staying above $130 is a decent baseline for the name.
amit tweet media
English
203
136
1.7K
262K
Jake Wujastyk
Jake Wujastyk@Jake__Wujastyk·
Who wants a free Tradingview account????? Giving 4 accounts, different tiers, away. Comment: DON’T TRADE ON MARGIN To be eligible 👆
English
1.8K
121
1.4K
416.5K
Heisenberg
Heisenberg@Mr_Derivatives·
🚨 Heisenberg Contest 🚨 Let's run another contest back. And I'll make it easier this time and guarantee the winner. Guess $NVDA's exact closing price to end 2025. So the exact CLOSE on December 31st 2025. Closest to it will win about $1,000 (judging from my recent X payouts). If tied, split between the ties. I'll participate in it too. My guess is $230.69. YOUR TURN! #timestamped
English
2.6K
50
1.4K
751.1K
RyshabTalks
RyshabTalks@RyshabTalks·
Quick options update: In 4 months, added 4% cash to my portfolio. Hitting 17 out of 21 so far. Currently have 6 positions on: Nov expiry: $SEZL $DUOL Dec expiry: $ALAB, $DAVE, $APP, $RDDT Moving from trying to make 1% a month to 2% month. Let's see how this goes.
English
2
0
4
1.6K
tdubw retweetledi
Serenity
Serenity@aleabitoreddit·
Wow I cooked insanely hard with this ETF, everything is up a **** ton. Anyway, some company changes I'd make + explanations: $AMD - +10% (rerate) $FLY - +3% (new) $WLAC - +1% (new) $MU - +1% (new) $FLNC - .5% (new) $SEI - .5% (new) $DFLI - - .25% (new) _ Trim (Tax harvesting) $ORCL $LULU $META $UPWK $ETOR $SNAP Misc small caps _ Here's an explanation $AMD - Just got $100B+ in forward revenue lol, they almost doubled their quarterly revenue overnight and hasn't even been priced in yet. Extremely strong buy $FLY - $4.4B valuation doing small-medium lift launches like $RKLB. Reminds me of RocketLab when they first started, risk-reward is good. $WLAC - Neocloud IPO at $600m valuation (low) for something doing 75%+ EBITDA gross margin + 250% rev from last year + likely backstopped by Mag7 $MU - Memory in demand given the amount of infra required by Stargate + OpenAI $FLNC + $SEI - Energy Play (high risk high reward) $DLFI - Battery Play (high risk high reward) Trim $ORCL - Having trouble with GPU buildout, just goes to show the moat between hyperscalers and Neoclouds like $NBIS. Higher upside just buying Neoclouds. $LULU, $META, $UPWK, $ETOR, $SNAP. - Hasn't gone up much, we're playing as aggressive as possible with winners and will buy back once tax harvesting is done, eg. swap for $AMD, and higher return triple rate cut returns. Will buy back near EOY once tax harvesting is done.
Serenity@aleabitoreddit

I've been getting a lot of stock weighting questions. A portfolio I'd build would be: 30% $NBIS 6% AMZN 5.5% TSM 5% BTC 5% LULU 4% UNH 4% $RKLB 4% LTC 3% ORCL 3% TGT 3% GRAB 2% $IREN 2% META 2% HOOD 2% HIMS 2% AMD 2% NVO 1.5% CRDO 1% BITF 1% ASTS 1% SG 1% UPWK 1% MP 1% FOUR 1% ETOR 1% INTC 1% COIN 1% SMCI 1% MRVL 1% DAVE .5% DLO .5% MELI .5% SNAP .5% CRWV .2% ONDS .2% NFE .2% TSSI .2% BKKT .2% GRRR

English
13
4
68
46.9K
tdubw
tdubw@tracyokay·
@aleabitoreddit Do you prefer weekly puts over monthly, and why? I sold a put yesterday for META exp 10/31 $700 strike price and collected approximately $2500 for selling more time.
English
0
0
0
31
Serenity
Serenity@aleabitoreddit·
Aggressively writing options off $1m would be: +$20.24K in 5 days, 2.024% a week, 183.48% y/y return. With a $1M cash, IBKR portfolio margin example: 85 $NBIS $96 PUT, (+$5.52K premium) ($809K) 55 $HIMS $49.5 PUT (+$1.427k) ($270k) 250 $CIFR $10 Put (+$5.239K) - ($253k) 80 RKLB $42 PUT (+3.8K) ($332K) 35 TGT $85, (+$1.3k) $296k) 35 AMZN $207.5, (+$1.22K), ($725K) 50 IBIT $59 PUT (+$947.86) - ($293k) 5 META $712.5 PUT (+$869) ($335K) $1M cash, 3.31M margin. This is just something I would do if I kept cash for the next week. This is bottom timing on every stock, and predicting strikes that would not hit for this week based on fundamentals, macro timing, events, and volatility. Also the return would probably be higher than 183% if you did it earnings week lol, which is probably the most profitable out of any event. BUT AGAIN SUPER DANGEROUS, this is something I'd personally do, maybe just read for fun and try on paper accounts but not live. Also, I'm also going off the top of my head with margin maintenance (eg. you can leverage more with META, TGT, AMZN, etc. given they're low beta). You have to time bottoms then write the puts. eg. AMZN not likely hitting sub $210, BTC sort of bottoming $107k around now, RKLB not going below $43 near term, NBIS $100 support, TGT bototming, META not likely to drop 5%+ a week, etc. So hopefully this is a bit informative to active SWING TRADERS and advanced traders, if you're a newcomer with just indexes, do not try this. _ So just random thoughts 1. Do not write puts on stocks you're not comfortable buying at those levels. Don't get tempted by high premiums on OKLO or QBTS cause those could just never recover for years on a sudden drop. You need to know what a great long is already. ^^^^IMPORTANT*** ^^^^, please do not write options on random penny stocks or speculative stuff. Only stuff you're fine buying and holding since writing puts kinda means you would buy it at those levels anyway. 2. REPEAT with high IV on REALLY good stocks, eg. if HOOD IV reaches 90% or RKLB IV is 90% or NBIS IV is 90%, cause eventually IV decreases to 60% or something once things stall out. 3. Do not over-margin extremely high beta stocks, usually 1.3-1.5x margin is safer for stuff like NBIS or RKLB. 2-3x on high beta is dangerous. That's why ~1.5x margin is fine 1,664 on NBIS, CIFR, HIMS, RKLB, etc in case all of them drop aside from one. Then low beta stocks like META, IBIT, TGT, AMZN you;'re fine margining since it wouldn't really dent the portfolio much if it drops that much. 4. LEARN implied volatility and know WHY it changes. If you just do this on repeat but sell stuff on earnings week and something like TTD crashes 40%, you're in trouble. Again this only applies non-earnings week. 5. If you really want to play safe, do one strike lower. Like $CIFR $7.5 will probably not hit, but $10 strike has a small chance. But I'd want to buy it at $10 anyway + the 5.2K prem, so I chose that strike. 6. Also need to know any major macro events + risk levels. So off the top of my mind, there's probably going to be negative news about US GOV shutdown, increased chances of US recession, polymarket pricing down triple rate cut 65% -> 56%, etc. On the other hand, some catalysts like stuff like AMZN has prime day on 8th-9th so it's likely to do better around and increase in price so probably better to write options later. So I might just wait until Oct 3rd, to start selling puts instead of this week if it's too risky. _ Generally rough rule of thumb IV - <30%, not exactly worth it, doesn't really move too much like blackrock, SPY unless there's like PPI or some other event IV - 30-45%, usually tech stocks like MSFT, GOOGL, AMZN, etc. It's good to do these with extra margin on top of your 1.5x that you use for higher beta. 45%-65%, usually more 30-60% y/y growth type companies like MRVL, Coin, etc. Sometimes they're really mispriced like COIN/HOOD IV is not worth sometimes given how much they move. 65%-100%, usually your more fun retail stocks like RKLB, NBIS, it's really good sweet spot since they'll likely bounce on dips and if you know how to time bottoms + add a few percent off, it's likely 100%+ premium gain. 100%+, lol danger zone (if you're selling few days out). stuff like OPEN, OKLO, earnings. Probably a reason for it. It's good if you know WHY like NBIS increasing 40% off MSFT deal, i'd sell $85 puts back then at like 200% IV because fundamentally I'd buy at those levels. IV goes to 100%+ on stuff like NBIS if there's one or two days out and that's actually a good thing for option sellers. If it's a week out then uhh something might be extremely volatile. _ If I had to breakdown individual ones AMZN for example, as a swing trader I'd would buy calls around $210 levels, unlikely to drop past $207.5 (so breakeven is $207.15 which is -5.96%), so you want to make sure you choose a level it never hits. You also know IV + beta (how things fluctuates) is relatively low so you can change your margin based on it never hitting. For high beta for example, 85 NBIS $96 PUT, (+$5.52K premium) ($809K) IV is 92% which is so nice for option selling. You get more premium, and you don't really erxpect it to dip below $100 either. IBKR doesn't do this so I'd recommend stuff like Robinhood to see breakeven, so on this stock would need to drop 11.3% for breakeven. _ Again I'd only recommend this if you're an active swing trader with higher risk tolerance, otherwise stick with stocks that you just hold over a year. This is also for aggressive compounding option selling, not using it strategically to DCA into positions, (eg. if I wanted to buy AMZN at $120, and I think I could get it at a better position, you can write PUTS at current strike instead of way lower). Also, this kinda always works every week **UNLESS** there's a black swan event like Trump tarrifs that absolutely tank the market. So PUT sellers that week kind of got wrecked, and you might need to just take a tiny loss and restart. I do this when I have spare cash on the side since I'm more of a breakout trader type. This is just my personal trading style and flow of thoughts, again VERY DANGEROUS, even if you have some experience. This is super advanced, a lot of former quant traders + buyside colleagues of mine have cash and do this option selling style off $10m+, I'm just kinda showing how it's done and what the thought process is behind it. Feel free to ask random questions and I'll help explain.
Serenity@aleabitoreddit

So just to add to the discussion on learning option selling: 1. BROKERAGE IS EXTREMELY IMPORTANT, NEVER USE $HOOD IF YOU HAVE A LARGE PORT. They claim it's free but it's probably one of the worst for option trading since they route your order to MMs and that's how they make money off of you by screwing your fills. Unless you're selling CC's CSP on Mag7/SPY with low spread, then use $IBKR for order execution since they give you the best fill even if you sell for the lowest price. It looks like you're losing a few dollars but .2 -.4 per contract on execution makes thousands of dollars of a difference. 2. If you're a smaller account, I'd recommend margin instead of 2x leveraged ETFs because of volatility decay. (you can use google to learn why you don't hold 2x leveraged ETFs for more than a short time). You have liquidation risks if you use margin but it's still better than leveraged ETFs. Think they pointed it out already in the post 3. Learn IV of stocks. Eg. Hood probably doesn't go up and down more than 4-6% a day normally. NBIS probably doesn't move more than 7% a day. TSM doesn't really move 4%+ a day. If you're selling CCs 4 days out like on NBIS, 6*4 for example, selling 24%+ OTM for like $130 if it's $107 is usually smart and profitable. If you sell CCs for like $110, you're asking for your stock to be called away and it's usually a strategy when you try and sell it. It's also important to learn catalysts. If there's an earnings coming up the original IV doesn't apply anymore since it could swing a lot higher or lower. Earnings CCs is completely different. 4. CSP is good. If you want to do a lot of this with a small account use IBKR portfolio margin, that way you can write a sell a ton of puts way OTM on a lot of stocks. Biggest risk is either you don't know what you're doing, or there's some black swan event like random 20% tarrifs on the world crashing the market earlier on in the year. Again I'm saying this from the perspective of tons of experience, but a newcomer might lose a lot of money. Same rule for IV applies. If AMZN is usually +-5% a week, you can sell PUTS 7% OTM and likely profit every week. Earnings again is a whole new strategy. it will probably take me a whole lot of time to explain this but it's extremely profitable too. A lot of people just sit on $1M+ and make like $10k a week passively doing "safer" CSPs or DCAing into positions. And earnings week every quarter is an insane amount of money. Unless a stock gets nuked like how TTD tanked 40%. But generally important to learn if you want to compound your wealth + existing assets. Option selling is great real estate (for selling CCs, or extremely OTM put selling) ONLY if you know what you're doing + do it on legitimate assets like IIBIT, HOOD. Otherwise there's tons of risks involved. Generally great advice overall for traders to learn. Just my thoughts and nuances to the lesson from personal experience.

English
24
19
194
101.5K
tdubw
tdubw@tracyokay·
@aleabitoreddit Would you add to $ALAB at this point since the stock is down?
English
0
0
2
237
Serenity
Serenity@aleabitoreddit·
The reason why $ALAB is taking off is because Astera is the only small cap company in existence with systemic exposure to 5 of the Mag7. 1. ALAB's customer base is literally Mag 7: $GOOGL, $MSFT, $NVDA, $META, and $AMZN. 2. They're growing at astounding rates ~150%+ y/y, with 76% margins (with higher margins than NVDA, one of the highest in the semi market). 3. Capex is still increasing for AI spend, as seen with $GOOGL earnings. NVDA started at a 150B market cap -> 4 TRILLION+ because hyperscalers needed GPUs. We're the start of this effect with ALAB for the AI supply chain, and it's starting at a small 20B market cap. We could see this being the next 1000% if they execute properly and AI infrastructure buildout continues.
Serenity tweet media
Serenity@aleabitoreddit

I just bought long term ~$175k+ positions in $ALAB and plan to scale this to ~$500k as a potential $50B+ moonshot. NVDA-like profit margins (76%), 144%+ Y/Y growth, customers like NVDA, AWS, MSFT, GOOGL, NVDA, AMD at 16B market cap. Unreal customers + growth/margins.

English
2
0
5
6.8K