Trade Circle

This is really a strange coincidence. ▫️ In Feb 2022, the Russia-Ukraine war started. ▫️ $BTC bottomed on the same day and started going up. ▫️ After 4 weeks, Russia said it could accept Bitcoin as payment for oil and gas exports. ▫️ Markets went euphoric, and BTC pumped above $48,000. ▫️ Soon, BTC peaked and dumped 50% in a few months. Now, let's compare this with now. ▫️ In Feb 2026, the US-Iran war started. ▫️ BTC bottomed on the same day, and started going up. ▫️ After 4 weeks, Iran said it could accept BTC as toll fees. ▫️ People are getting euphoric again, and maybe this pump could sustain for a few days. After that, BTC will dump to new lows.

This is important. Almost everyone on CT tries to predict what BTC will do while ignoring equities (which are now likely to do a bearish retest then roll over and decline to a macro low late this year) while also ignoring that BTC is now ~95% correlated to equities with an additional destructive beta during equities sell offs. DXY - with implications for all risk assets - mostly gets ignored in the same way. And finally they ignore the world burning on the edge of a covid style economic crisis, because maybe the digital gold 'flight to safety' narrative will come back, or because bottom indicators are flashing (as they did at the last bear flag and as they will again at the next bear flag), or because the 4 year cycle is dead - it was all a mirage driven by the business cycle which has ticked up the last 3 months so we must be going up only. There's literally dozens of rock solid metrics that say price is going lower and will likely bottom late this year at around the same time equities and gold hit their macro cycle lows, presumably followed by a QE stimulus environment to kick off the next bull, and only a handful of small but unconvincing arguments that the bottom might already be in at 60k. Always possible, just not probable. Looks like DXY is now joining the party for at least the next month or two.

Jupiter looking extremely weak against Solana. TP at the major 4hr support, 15% lower from here. $SOL $JUP

Bearish divergences firing off on multiple timeframes, so not a bad place to enter a long Solana /short Ethereum swing trade. Wait for the 4hr structural level to be lost if you would like additional confirmation. Daily VWAP is 20% lower from here, nice confluence with the .382 level as well. $ETH $SOL

The best part of accumulating wealth is that you can start saying increasingly insane things and people begin treating them as insight instead of retardation

🌖 “Open Hormuz!” 🌗 “NATO, help open Hormuz!” 🌘 “EU, Japan, Australia, help!” 🌑 “You have 48 hrs to open Hormuz!” 🌒 “5 more days to open Hormuz!” 🌓 “You have 10 days to open Hormuz!” 🌔 “You have till Apr 6 to open Hormuz!” 🌕 “Can leave without opening Hormuz!”

Interestingly, last week multiple senior fund managers pointed out to me that this pattern has held for each of the last 3 weeks: “TACO/positive news” Monday, “uh-oh” by Wednesday, “dumpster fire” by Friday

Short TAO after an obvious CT influencer campaign to pump it. Hopefully it will revisit the shaded demand area to add to the position. $TAO

$BTC I'd like to see this week close above green Otherwise TA wise we're kinda cooked Fingers crossed even if we don't close above it's just chop

GOLD FALLS TO UNDER $4500, SET FOR ITS BIGGEST WEEKLY FALL SINCE 1983. - @FirstSquawk Gold volatility in USD is doing what gold volatility did in 1920s Weimar German Reichsmarks, which makes perfect sense once you understand our present context. Chart via @Myrmikan

I wonder what happens to Cardano when it breaks down below a 3-year support level

Tom Lee's loss on ETH with other people’s money is now bigger than the losses incurred by users in the FTX collapse

@damskotrades @grok summarize key takeaways from this thread

/ Market Outlook 1. Macro optimistic (macro cycle isn't over imo) 2. When bottom? (1/5)

how I trade "fast spike reversals" on the 1 minute timeframe a thread 🧵

Trying to teach trading is difficult cuz nothing can replace experience but you can accelerate the learning curve. My personal experience was I read nearly 100 books and watched vids and learned from ct early all while trading/blowing up for years. Was just inhaling material. I still made the same mistakes various sources told me not to but it helped me identify and correct them quickly after they had occurred like “ohh that’s what they meant”. Also some of the technical tools obvs helped after I created my own style around it. Again, insufficient on their own without experience. So education isn’t totally worthless, it helped me a lot, but it’s still very likely you will have years of suffering first. People being successful right out the gate are incredibly rare. Also if you’re someone who can’t balance their emotional state and place too much importance on money you’ll never really “learn to trade” anyways as you’ll constantly blow up or get emotional losing yourself in lapses of discipline. So those people are just perma doomed no matter what, which is most people.

the best traders don’t catch every move, they just catch the moves they know best. they aggressively play markets that they recognize. less is more is applied to this world. in the beginning, you will scrape all ends of the internet looking for indicators, books, strategies, influencers, and any sort of cheat code or one stop solution to becoming a profitable trader. you cannot skip the hard part. the parts that require spending lots of time in these markets. data, your own experiences, habits, and skin in the game. this cannot be faked the more data you have, the easier it is to navigate a market. another beginner mistake is thinking this data is somewhere out there in the world of cyberspace. wrong. the data is in your actions - both successes and failures. winning strategies and systems are put together after a series of logged trades. months of performance. the difference of knowing what works for you and what doesn’t is what most beginners ignore. hung up on the idea that the answer is somewhere out there. really, the answer is within yourself. what works for one will not work for another. we all handle stress and pressure differently, and the same goes with euphoria. identify an environment you’re good with operating in. exploit this environment. walk away when it no longer fits your criteria. forcing yourself to operate in markets that go against what produces the best results for you is how money and progress is lost. trade in familiar waters or don’t trade at all.

Our gold trading bot is still one of the top performers on Bybit copy-trading! 76% win rate, but more importantly max drawdown of only 4%. Followers have made $35,000 so far. bybit.com/copyMt5/trade-… $XAU $PAXG $XAUT

We've hit price levels I want to buy But I thought we would only hit those price levels with Saylor getting into trouble/The Epstein case being blown open much more/The stock market tanking We got none of those things and went there anyway which makes it hard to buy the dip

@Delonchain I'm long now 😁

@tradecircleio Does $Xmr care about bitcoin?

Would love to long Monero here, but with Bitcoin about to print another lower low on the 1hr that aint happening just yet folks. $XMR

This is why I loath the concept of trailing the trades of "smart money"...as you can see it can turn to dumb money real quick 🫠