Farzad
5.1K posts
Farzad retweetledi
S&P Dow Jones Indices and trade[XYZ] have joined forces to launch the first official S&P 500 perpetual contract, available exclusively on Hyperliquid.
For 69 years, the S&P 500 has been a defining reference point for global finance. Until now, access to that benchmark has been shaped by market hours, intermediaries, and geography. Today, that changes.
The S&P 500 perp is now available 24/7/365, anchored by the official index data required for deep liquidity and institutional confidence at scale.
SPDJI helped define modern indexing. They are stewards of an iconic benchmark, the standard against which portfolios across the globe are measured. We are honored to bring that legacy on-chain.
Trade[XYZ] is bringing the world's most iconic assets towards a future of global, continuous markets — a future powered by Hyperliquid.
English
Farzad retweetledi
Farzad retweetledi
Crude futures aren't telling the full story.
See Dubai physical swaps (white, balance of the month) vs Brent prompt futures (blue) below.
Normally they're pretty close, but right now there's a MAD bid for physical crude in the region—$100/bbl futs, $140/bbl physical barrels.
English
Farzad retweetledi
Farzad retweetledi
Farzad retweetledi
I spent 100 hours over the past week researching, writing and editing the piece we just put out.
It’s a scenario, not a prediction like most of our work. But it was rigorously constructed, dismissing it outright requires the kind of intellectual laziness that tends to get expensive.
And we’ve released it for free. Hopefully you enjoy it.
citriniresearch.com/p/2028gic
English
I worked on a fun project the past few days, and a new module added to our stock terminal.
The issue: A few times a year there's a major market-wide movement (think: 90 day tariff pause, "Trump: time to buy stocks," etc..) - one of the most convex payouts in these situations is with same-day (0dte) SPX options.
Traditional interfaces (IBKR, Schwab, etc) are not set up for scalping these options unless you've already selected a contract, pinned it on your watchlist, and keep it updated throughout the day as the market moves.
The manual alternative is immediately opening the options chain on news, searching SPX, waiting for it to load (add a few seconds if it's volatile), picking a strike, and marketing in. In most cases it's better to just slam your stock shortcuts, which trad brokers do support (eg: long SPXL, TQQQ, levered indices) - if you're really looking to get in ASAP. What you make up for in speed, you lose in these extreme r/r profiles.
We've had options shortcuts for a while in our terminal, for single-ticker news:
What I wanted was a module for SPX (and other indices) that would solve every part of this - automatic contract selection based on options Greeks, automatic sizing based on the ask price, and automatic rotation to optimal contracts as price moves - all without any user input.
I've also realized this isn't something I want sitting on my screen every day if I'm only going to use it a handful of times a year. In addition to implementing a fleshed out shortcut panel in the terminal UI -- we've also added plug & play Streamdeck support:
The new shortcut panel with StreamDeck support is not limited to SPX options, but that's my use case: a physical device on my desk where I can ape into SPX 0dte calls or puts with a single press:
This will be released in our terminal build next week. Below are some examples of SPX 0dte movers with recent headlines that moved the whole market, thanks for reading!
English
Farzad retweetledi
This was the highest volume day on $IBIT, ever, by a factor of nearly 2x, trading $10.7B today. Additionally, roughly $900M in options premiums were traded today, also the highest ever for IBIT. Given these facts and the way $BTC and $SOL traded down in lockstep today (normally SOL trades with beta) + the relatively lower liquidations on CeFi exchanges, this leads me to believe that the nexus of the problem lies with a large IBIT holder. IBIT has become the #1 venue for BTC options trading, so my guess is that a hedge fund trading IBIT options is the culprit.
If you look at the 13F filings for IBIT (I like whalewisdom dot com), you'll find a number of interesting names that have the majority of their fund in IBIT. In fact, there are a few in there (not naming names) that have 100% of their fund in IBIT, which likely means no cross margin. In fact, the biggest reason to set up a fund to hold a single asset would be to isolate margin, so that if the trade blew up, the brokers wouldn't have claim to any other assets.
Interestingly, most of these giant, single asset funds are based in HK.
We know that Asian traders, particularly in China, have been deeply involved in the Silver and Gold trade. Silver was down 20% today, which was the 2nd largest 1 day move in a very long time (largest on Jan 30). We also know that the JPY carry trade has been unwinding at an increasingly rapid pace.
This leads me to think that the culprit for the IBIT blowup today was 1 or more HK-based non-crypto hedge funds. As @FranklinBi pointed out, the fund(s) being non-crypto would explain why no one sniffed them out. They would likely have few/no crypto counterparties, meaning complete isolation from CT.
The last small piece of evidence I have is that I personally know a number of HK-based hedge funds that are holders of $DFDV, which had the worst single down day ever, with a meaningful mNAV decline. The mNAV had been holding steady surprisingly well throughout this pull back until today. One of these fund(s) could have been connected to the IBIT culprit, as I highly doubt a fund taking that large of a position in IBIT and using a single entity structure would only have the one fund.
Now, I could easily see how the fund(s) could have been running a levered options trade on IBIT (think way OTM calls = ultra high gamma) with borrowed capital in JPY. Oct 10th could very well have blown a hole in their balance sheet, that they tried to win back by adding leverage waiting for the "obvious" rebound. As that led to increased losses, coupled with increased funding costs in JPY, I could see how the fund(s) would have gotten more desperate and hopped on the Silver trade. When that blew up, things got dire and this last push in BTC finished them off.
I have no hard evidence here, just some hunches and bread crumbs, but it does seem very plausible. Let's see if some more concrete evidence floats to the surface here soon. The smoking gun will be a large fund fitting this profile filing a 13F showing a giant IBIT holding going to zero. Unfortunately, if a fund had their IBIT position liquidated today, they wouldn't have to disclose the position change until 45 days after the quarter end, so we'd be looking at mid May for the smoking gun from 13F filings most likely.
Hopefully some of you out there with too much time on your hands this weekend can snoop around more. My guess is that word will start to get out, because something of this size is just too hard to hide. Additionally, if the broker was not able to liquidate the fund in time, the broker may have a hole in their balance sheet, which would be even more difficult to hide.
English
