umr

‘‘90 percent of the game is 5 inches wide, the length of the space between your ears.’’ — Bobby Jones, Golfer 1932

@ZigsOnTheBid I have it disabled for safety reasons. 😁

Does anyone actually use this tilt confirmation button? 💀

google’s desperation to squeeze ads into everything has been getting out of hand for a while now. somewhere along the way, they decided it was acceptable to hijack a user’s click and turn it into a full-screen pop-up ad. the first time i saw it, i honestly couldn’t believe it was google. its the same company that once famously limited adsense publishers to just three small ads per page. they’ve been exploiting the golden goose for far too long. nothing good is going to come from this.

As someone who has personally spent $500k / mo+ on Google Ads for years, I can tell you with certainty: This revenue growth in Search is artificial & extremely unhealthy for Google’s business long term Search volumes are declining as legacy search is being increasingly cannibalized by non-monetized LLM queries Google’s response? Manufacture revenue growth via short-sighted, highly extractive, customer-hostile tactics. I.e. charge advertisers more for lower quality clicks, including clicks they do not want and explicitly did not approve Google to charge them for A few examples to illustrate: For all of its history until recently, Google operated on a 2nd price auction model I.e. if you bid $5 CPC and the next highest bidder bids $1 CPC, Google charged you $1.01 for the click (one penny more than the 2nd highest bidder) rather than the $5 you bid This was a genius move by Google early on as it incentivizes advertisers to input their true maximum willingness to pay rather than trying to play the game of bidding low and constantly adjusting to try to stay just ahead of the next highest bidder while still not paying too much However recently, Google silently deprecated the 2nd price auction and began charging advertisers as much as their bid and budget caps allow, regardless of what anyone else is bidding It’s a short-sighted cash grab at the expense of the long term health of the advertiser ecosystem Making thing worse, Google also recently nerfed keyword targeting precision Google previously had precise keyword targeting settings that allowed advertisers pick individual search phrases to bid on, defined down to the character w/ exact match or phrase match targeting This was one of the core features that made search advertising magic, enabling advertisers to run extremely precise campaigns based on exactly what their target customer typed But now, even if you bid on a specific term or phrase using the strictest exact -match targeting settings, Google will show your ad across 1000’s of unrelated keywords, labeling them as as “exact match (close variant)” The definition of “close variant” means whatever they want it to and changes constantly. The result is advertisers get billed for clicks that are totally irrelevant to their business and that their targeting settings explicitly forbid Google from targeting. Google does it anyway and there’s no ability to turn this off So now exact match is broad match, and broad match is just meaningless spam This is all very bad for advertisers, but for Google, it allows them to show your ad and bill you for clicks across 1000x more searches that were previously going unmonetized (mainly because they’re garbage queries no one wants) This is how you grow revenue atop declining search volumes Lastly, and perhaps most egregiously, Google quietly stopped respecting budget caps by a factor of 2x. For example campaigns we’ve been running for years with $1000 daily budget caps suddenly began spending $2000+ per day And the extra spend is entirely on the garbage keywords Google arbitrarily throws in as “exact match (close variants)” which have no value to our business, but can’t be turned off Google offers no refunds nor any recourse for overspend or spend on keywords you explicitly did not target These are not the actions of a healthy business. These are the actions of company whose core business is in decline but desperately needs to pump quarterly earnings so Wall Street will continue to fund insane capex while hopefully looking through their rapidly deteriorating negative free cash flow Google operated a benevolent monopoly for the better part of 25 yrs Meaning the value Google captured from Search was but a small fraction of the value it created, and that spread produced a potential energy that justified expectations of high earnings growth far, far into the future This is now no longer the case At the alter of AI capex, Google is sacrificing the golden goose

i have been having a blast building a full end to end ML quant engine... from research to execution. i definitely feel like i could knock out a few solid research papers on this now. 😁

✅ #AUDUSD

#codex ftw.

@the_delta_dog this is all intra-day. labels are various. based on RS vol SL/TP. and with a max hold time.

@trader_umr this is awesome. what frequency?

this could be true, but try and find a few features that have some predictability in ranking some fwd return of some coins/stocks/you name it against each other. obviously finding the features is hard, best way is prob to obtain all raw data you can and just start to model

@the_delta_dog any robust short strat is gold. longs are relatively easier to find.

@trader_umr if you compare decile 1 (short) in the chart to decile 10 (long) you see that the long side contributes more, but short side is not bad

hmm... when retail is extremely long, short. when extremely short, long?

If your 2FA codes are stuck in @Authy, which has no supported desktop app, browser extension, or export tool, send Twilio/Authy a GDPR data request. It takes a while, but it works. After years of pain, I can finally move to better options like @enteio or @Bitwarden.

@macrocephalopod . . . . . . US500

Objective ranking, in order of most sophisticated to least sophisticated: - ES - E-minis - Spoos - SPX - S&P 500 - SPY

@jxnlco projects and their respective threads can use different colors backgrounds. and once gain fast mode should be per thread, not for the full account.

If you're using codex desktop app today, what features do you feel like are still missing? Let me know and I’ll summarize all the feedback and share internally.

@Rachid____fx psst. that's amateur stuff. this is minimum criteria to call yourself any good. no cap. fr.

Before the usual ‘overfitted’ comments arrive - It’s important to clarify that this portfolio was not built through brute-force optimization, parameter mining, or curve-fitting techniques. No genetic optimizers. No excessive parameter sweeps. No retrospective tuning designed.

i actually sold a lot of USD stuff when price dipped below 60 cents. and since then have been focused on hedged ETFs instead of unhedged. worked very well as you can see.

i have turned bearish #AUDUSD. after remaining bull since it was priced @ 65 cents. in near future, i expect it to at least dip into 6900s.

@richiemcilroy how dare you call me out like that.

"Is that code AI generated? If it’s AI generated I don’t want it"

@daaniyaan do it

Thinking about building an exchange using the FTX front‑end with Hyperliquid Builder code for the engine and back‑end.

@btraut /fast mode would be thread based, and not apply to full account.

Now that I've joined the Codex team, it's so freakin' cool being able to fix paper cut bugs that I was running into before the switch. What paper cuts are you running into? I'll see what I can do.