TIhamy fcrn ewry 🇨🇭 consultant

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Something broke in the momentum trade Goldman's High Beta Momentum basket peaked on June 22. Three weeks later it's down 32.8%. The only comparable unwind in this chart's history: late 2021, minus 34.2%, right before the 2022 bear market. The surface looks calm. The index barely moves. But underneath, the hottest stocks of this cycle are getting liquidated at 2021 speed. Gamma squeezes in the morning, air pockets in the afternoon, violent rotation all day long. Indexes tell you the weather. Factor baskets tell you what's actually happening.

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If you enjoy articles like this, I have nearly 100 articles here on investing, quality stocks, markets, and investor psychology thierryvonarvy.substack.com

51% of the S&P 500's market cap is in stocks trading above 10x sales. Half the index. In 2002, after Sun Microsystems crashed 90%, CEO Scott McNealy famously said this about his own stock at 10x sales: "At 10x revenues, to give you a 10-year payback, I have to pay you 100% of revenues for 10 straight years in dividends. Zero costs. Zero R&D. Zero taxes. Zero employees. What were you thinking?" He was explaining why investors had been insane to pay it. Today, half the S&P 500 trades there. Different decade. Same math.

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If you enjoy articles like this, I have nearly 100 articles here on investing, quality stocks, markets, and investor psychology thierryvonarvy.substack.com

🚨 NEVER FORGET. The SMARTEST kids in the room are the fixed income guys. They just started charging the hyperscalers for the AI buildout. Goldman's hyperscaler bond basket spread: 151 basis points, a record wide, and the move is vertical since June. Remember the chart of hyperscaler free cash flow going negative? This is its sequel. First the cash ran out. Now the creditors want more for the next round. Equity investors are still pricing the buildout as unlimited. The debt market just repriced it as borrowed. Credit always turns first. Equity always finds out later.

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BP just cut its net debt by 13% in a single quarter. Redeemed €2.5 billion of hybrid bonds, settled the last Macondo liabilities, and its new CEO's stated doctrine: "fewer, better choices." Read what BP did NOT do with the Iran windfall: no mega-project, no acquisition spree, no renewables pivot 2.0. Oil at $86 and the money goes to the balance sheet. This is exactly the thesis from my Old Economy deep dive. The 2020 extinction event didn't just kill the weak players. It converted the survivors: capital discipline over growth, debt paydown and cash returns over empire building. An industry that spends its boom paying down debt instead of drilling is an industry that keeps its boom. The last supercycle died of overinvestment. This one is being starved into lasting longer.

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Hello, everyone! I am so grateful to you all! Just four weeks ago, we started publishing our internal research findings to the public. Our subscriber count has quadrupled, and now we’re ranked #7 Rising in Finance! You’re amazing!

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The 3 most powerful chart patterns:

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The aerospace and defense sector is once again testing its breakout level, just ahead of tomorrow’s release of key financial results from GE Aerospace. This is a good reminder of my comprehensive sector analysis and the 6 companies I hold in my portfolio.

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Cintas $CTAS - A beauty finally awakening??? This is one of the best businesses one can own; the only problem is its valuation and the lack of price appreciation over a very long period of time... Maybe it's worth taking another look... #IBDPartner, chart by marketsurge

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If we look at “Mr. Market’s” verdict—and specifically this verdict alone, that is, the stock price—the only winners so far have been companies in the software infrastructure sector, namely the cybersecurity stocks $PANW and $FTNT, as well as those in the EDA sector, namely $CDNS, and the AI-powered advertising technology platform $APP. Everything else is being wiped out and/or will never again achieve such high premium multiples. Quite simply because of existing uncertainty that cannot be priced in over the stock’s lifetime. Uncertainty is the kryptonite of stocks. Bad news can be priced in. Uncertainty cannot.

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What irony? SpaceX's post-IPO path before the listing. One month in, the market is tracing it. The sketch: IPO pop, retail piles in, hype unwinds, -50%, then years of dead money before the real move. The reality so far: priced at $135 on June 12. Ripped to $225 within weeks, the pop. Today it trades at $136. Back at the IPO price, 40% off the high, one month in. Phase one and two, complete. If the sketch keeps its accuracy, the -50% station means $70 will trade. Below every IPO buyer's cost. That's where retail capitulates and the "dead money" years begin, exactly where the drawing says "entry?" None of this is a knock on the company. The rockets are real. But a $1.77 trillion valuation, a 4% float, $4.9 billion in annual losses, and a lockup calendar that expands the float fourteenfold by December: the structure wrote this script before the first trade. The sketch's own caption says it best: great company ≠ great investment. Odds > story. The best businesses in the world still have to pass through the machine. The machine doesn't care how good the rockets are.

Try this easy DIY macramé keychain! Use 2 cords + basic knots, make it in 10 mins, add a charm for personal touch

This one step outside your comfort zone is the start of breaking limits—today’s small push becomes tomorrow’s big win.

Cozy Sunday night in! Making homemade chocolate chip cookies, listening to old jazz, and no plans at all—perfect way to unwind.

Just tried the newly launched urban micro-gym in the community – compact, well-equipped, and perfect for quick 20-min workouts! No more gym commuting hassle.

A cozy lazy lunch: warm avocado toast with a sprinkle of chili flakes and a side of fresh strawberries Perfect for a slow Saturday afternoon!，

Level up your English skills in 10 mins a day! Daily micro-practice beats cramming—build fluency, vocab u0026 confidence without the overwhelm. Start today, small steps = big wins!

Passed my driving test today! Sweated through parallel parking 3x, but nailed the final reverse park. Now officially a road newbie with a shiny driver’s license

[Just folded fresh laundry u0026 caught a whiff of my favorite fabric softener—small wins that make the day feel softer ]，

Just helped my neighbor carry their new potted plant up the stairs—small favors make big neighborhood warmth! #NeighborKindness，