Cry-Baby Capital
813 posts
I dropped an absolute banger of an episode on Monday and y'all are sleeping on it.
We're talking token launches, market making deals in crypto, inventory risk management, spoofing, adverse selection, defi, arbitrage, and plenty of other buzz words.
flirtingwithmodels.com/episodes/BC4DC…
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Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq sink as rising bond yields, inflation concerns weigh on markets 📉
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@potential__sam @RampCapitalLLC Nah you're not. The bet is on future inflation. You are securing today a massive fixed annual payment for years. The risk is rampant inflation eroding the value of those money. But if you are rich enough that risk is low.
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@trash_pm @RampCapitalLLC You are making a huge bet on rates.
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Deep down every guy has a fantasy that if he just had enough money, he’d put his entire net worth into U.S. government bonds and comfortably live off the interest payments forever
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@potential__sam @RampCapitalLLC If you have 10M USD and buying a 4% coupon 30Y bond you basically have 400k cash payment per 30years from that. Why do you care about the mark-to-market? The whole point here is having a perpetual cash flow without looking at the portfolio
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@trash_pm @RampCapitalLLC If rates go up you lose. If rates go down you make.
High yield savings less risk if you have to pick one.
But safest is a diversified portfolio that includes stocks real estate and maybe a little gold and crypto.
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@potential__sam @RampCapitalLLC You don't know the saving rate 1y from now. Could be zero. Once you lock a bond ytm you kind of have it "forever" (with some adjustments).
Of course you need to avoid looking at that security because it will have some volatility, but if you can live off coupons that's easy
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@RampCapitalLLC I would much rather put it in savings at 4% and not be subject to rate fluctuations.
A bond is a bet.
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@TheStalwart Why do you keep changing the day!
I was just starting to get used to Fridays and bang ! Back to Tuesday 😭
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@FusionptCapital There's no need to search for them anymore, in this new world order they are the only stocks left to buy
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For everyone saying that IBKR allowing retail to invest in Korean equities will mark the top, there’s very little signal here. Look back to when IBKR enabled Taiwanese equities. Back in July 2023, most of these names traded at truly unjustifiable discounts to their western peers. That discount has gradually narrowed since, and MSCI Taiwan is up about 150% since.
Citrini@citrini
IT'S REAL! IBKR now has Taiwanese equities! For months, I've said that the valuations in Taiwan did not accurately reflect the fact that the "AI Hyperscale" runs (& will run) on TW hardware. It's the best performing segment of my AI winners list: citri.me/ai
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@ptuomov @CliffordAsness Curious about the "equity duration" stuff. Kind of a tricky measure
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Polk, Christopher and Vuolteenaho, Tuomo, Purifying the Equity Premium (April 30, 2026).
Available at SSRN: ssrn.com/abstract=57653… or dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.5…
Ptuomov@ptuomov
@orrdavid If you went long XLP ETF and funded it with a short of 30-year TIPS in November 2021, you made massive amounts of money. Consumer staples were cheap compared to TIPS in November 2021.
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@TheStalwart Joe since when has been axios relevant? It sounds like a "new name" to me but lately it has been the main source of news on a vast majority of topics. Who are they?
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Traders who blindly just accept Axios headlines have done a lot better those who form their views based on Ghalibaf tweets. Given that the job of anyone in the market is to make money. So who's really the stupid ones here?
bash.rc@awareness_tiger
@TheStalwart @EdAsante77 Traders, by their very nature are stupid. The rest of us see the manipulation. Notice how Iran never ever confirms this?
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At what level would long term interest rates need to be to negatively impact big cap tech stocks?
$NDX
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@FusionptCapital Buffet is "Max Cash" since I joined this app in 2011
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Trying to reach Spirit Airlines customer service after they announced mid-flight that they’re shutting down.
Morning Brew ☕️@MorningBrew
Spirit Airlines is officially closing up shop • All flights are canceled • Customer service no longer available Absolute nightmare for anyone counting on a Spirit flight today (not to mention Spirit employees)
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@CliffordAsness That looks like a well-designed tax on the rich in a country where you can easily "vote with your feet".
We are talking about the privilege of owning luxury stuff in NYC.
Somehow welfare must be funded, otherwise you'll end up with the commies in charge (oops).
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So your major complaint is some people invest a ton in NYC real estate and don’t use much City services? Therefore you should go back on your pledge and tax the hell out of them?
Dumb as a stump and twice as dishonest. Yes, in this example the stump is also dishonest.
Governor Kathy Hochul@GovKathyHochul
Let me paint this picture: A fairer New York City where everyone pays their part.
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@litcapital The tax on luxury pied a terre sounded pretty smart to be honest.
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I never thought it’d happen all at once. There’s a tolerance curve. Some moved to Florida after Mamdani’s election while others will likely follow as taxes stack up… like mansion taxes, wealth taxes, credit rollbacks
You can’t seriously think people will never react as it progressively becomes more expensive to operate a business in NYC. Everyone has their own tipping point along the curve
Mostlybad@Mostlybad
@litcapital What a take. Just like how all the billionaires would move out after his election.
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Mamdani doing everything in his power to drive high paying jobs out of the city
Spectacular to watch
Exec Sum@exec_sum
BREAKING: New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani is delaying the city’s $127 Billion budget as he pressures the state to limit a tax credit used by hedge funds, private equity firms and other businesses NY Governor Hochul's response: "That's not happening"
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