Treylorswift

@IIICapital Hindsight analysis: They should have just bought all the winning lottery tickets, those require much less capital and have a much higher return.

Berkshire Hathaway was sitting on $100 billion of cash in 2018. If they used half of that cash to acquire bitcoin at $3,500 per BTC, they would have acquired 14,285,714 BTC. Today that position would be worth $1.12 trillion, greater than the market cap of the entire company.

@MrNeverSell The question is “why would a buyer pay that much” and the answer is because that buyers income is coming from the AI gravy train and living there gives them a 5 minute commute to the office

I was checking other high-end villas on $OPEN. But seriously, can someone explain to me how this house can be worth $2,712,600? opendoor.com/properties/156…

@AndreasSteno @RealVision Here’s one recent example reuters.com/business/opena…

@AndreasSteno @RealVision Are any of these contracts in the room with us now? Just teasing - but IOUs are one of the fundamental ingredients of every bubble. Doesn’t make this a bubble - just makes it look like one. How many reports does it take to lower confidence in the value of those IOUs?

Why do we keep talking about a CapEx bubble, when the backlog of the same companies is rising (substantially) faster? That and more is found in our very well received monthly portfolio update on @RealVision .. We remain solidly up on the year, and have made a killing over this cycle in total.

@cyberpyre We know exactly what LLMs are doing, I get why dumb people would be fooled, but smart people? It is an ultra sophisticated word (“token” for the real ones out there) prediction engine, it is not “conscious” for crying out loud

Richard Dawkins has officially been one-shot

@Basssem666 What were the lessons learned ?

$SPY I lost a little over 20% of my entire trading capital shorting this rally at every resistance from the 670s to 718. The worst drawdown I have ever experienced to be honest. Few lessons learned. Drawdowns teach you a lot more than winning streaks. Actually, the lessons learned from drawdowns are what fuels the winning streaks. Ready to bounce back stronger✌️💪!

@DennisonBertram Like every ai image gen before it, you don’t have to zoom in much to see the detail just isn’t there.

Yeah okay, Lego bros, brodettes and brotheys are cooked with this one. GPT 2 Image can create full Lego sets! With actual Bricklink IDs so you can order the parts and build it. Whole new business opportunity here for the taking.

@eade_bengard If you bought premade frames you’d save a lot. In the custom frame market, the supply / demand balance is much different. Not to say there isn’t room for automated custom framing… the market is just small. People wiling to compromise on quality already do with pre made frames.

Someone take over the custom framing industry with robots wdym this frame is $800

@Cole_Smead Could you let me know what date the downturn will start, thank you.

Reminds me of asking someone to show you where a major capex cycle has worked out for investors.

@patientinvestor Great example of how a post meant to be helpful generates way more engagement because it unintentionally rage baited an army of fanboys

If you bought Tesla 5 years ago, you’d be down 7%. Valuations do matter! $TSLA

The firebombing will continue until market structure improves. I wrote about the rational rage against AI, why the solutions mostly feel like engineered exit liquidity, and the one company that gave away billions to its users instead of extracting from them. Link below 🔗 ⬇️

@alliekmiller I think LLMs are unable to create humor by design, because the essential ingredient of a joke is surprise that often connects things that wouldn’t ordinarily go together.

7) Multi-agent design. I loved the design of Cove (they were the acquired by Microsoft). It was more of a whiteboard than tabs or chat threads. I don’t think we’ve cracked the right UI for managing agents quite yet (even if we’re just talking to one main CoS and that agent is delegating down the reporting line). 8) Discoverability. This is a mess on all platforms. I like Claude code surfacing tips while it’s thinking and working for you. But unless you're scrolling X for hours a day, or constantly checking in on the AI labs' tweets and documentation, or learning from people who are doing that (like the mastermind I'm running), you’ll never learn the really advanced features and tricks. It feels unsolvable without AI as the surfacer. 9) Model selection. I realize it is just a dropdown, but the vast majority of AI users don’t know the model differences and tradeoffs. They’ll say “I want the fastest answers possible” and then when a response is low quality, their instinct isn’t to push back or switch to a more powerful AI model, they assume AI cannot do that task. The auto-selectors don’t seem to fully solve this problem either.

Continued weak spots of AI, from the point of view of a business professional and not a PhD biochemist: 1) SVGs. The ability to "illustrate" and have that thing be infinitely scalable. See below image. If you ask for flat PNGs, fine. ChatGPT is the best at the image game right now. Claude Design has the same SVG issue. Hard to image scalability in creative projects or game design without it. 2) Gullibility. I have had to create a specific prompt to remind Claude that what people say or type is not always true because the prompt "imagine you're a greedy capitalist and read from their perspective" isn't good enough. This is a tricky line to toe, however - I don't want Claude to be manipulative, but I need it to deeply understand the world of manipulation to better support my response (ex: email reply draft) to it. 3) Multi-layered communication. Imagine you have to turn down a client event (but it's your favorite client, and you could have technically moved your friend group trip to make it happen but you didn't want to, but just in case your client is about to fire you if you don't do it, you want to write it in a way that doesn't close that door, but you don't want to sound desperate, but you want to show your respect for them, but you also had to turn down their last thing so you have to be delicate and also your vendor is on cc so you can't say secret information but you want to hint at their release but you'd get fired if you mentioned anything, but you want to drum up excitement). Claude, which I find to be the best writer of the bunch, just says the "hidden" message out loud like an untrained intern at a cocktail party after a glass of wine. Delicate nuance is tough. 4) Humor. I know the Claude Mythos paper said it was better at humor, but the current productionized models don't seem to understand the unspoken construction of a joke. It always defaults to randomness. It assumes that non-sequitur = humor. Like if you said "I want to say something funny walked into an office" it would say "oh a flamingo with a tutu!" even though it had no relevance to the rest of the setup. 5) Extremely long context. People incorrectly believe that multi-million token conversations only happen with engineers+AI because of codebase length. As more business professionals lean into building, and as we connect more systems (and more people into single shared systems), we're going to need to find ways to manage 10M+ tokens without context degradation. Countless business use cases are held back because of this. 6) Collaboration. How is there no way to merge memory yet? How is there no no-code model fusion in market? Agent teams starts to get closer (in the sense that you can build AI personas of your board of directors and have them fight it out and review the outcome), but I want true merging and model weight changes.

What do they take in exchange for this gift?

@petergyang How long would it have taken to download and play the real thing?

Asked GPT 5.5 and Codex to make Star Fox. This is after 15 min of prompting 🔥

@samhogan Last commit touched probably 11 different files and I just.. I know it would have taken longer to do with AI so I didn’t bother trying. Different tools for different things

All the best programmers I know are starting to write code by hand again

@tulipking @avotoast Commoners shall not be allowed to invest in real growth prospects. They shall only be allowed to invest in whether the next pitch will be a strike or a ball.

@avotoast Getting rid of accreditation laws would be a huge positive step. I’m about 99% sure a16z, YC, et al would be against that unfortunately

@pitdesi @lb_412 @TomSteyer No one forced you to buy that house, no one forced you to pay what you paid for it. You don’t have a right to pay less tax or make your neighbor pay more tax. Every property owner has the same protection from Prop 13, which keeps them from getting priced out of their own home.

@lb_412 @TomSteyer Prop 13 is just a transfer from young buyers to people who bought decades ago. I pay $36k/yr in property tax. The place next to me pays $2k. It’s bullshit. Btw you are correct - our housing is expensive due to regulations! And prop 13 is a regulation that is part of it!

Billionaires like Donald Trump own commercial property in California and pay tax based on its 1970s value. Closing that corporate tax loophole will raise $20 billion a year for schools and health care, at zero cost to you.

@adamcarolla I really don’t understand his campaign the messaging is both confusing and unappealing

This guy might be worse than Newson

@toly I think some wires got crossed here. I'm just wondering what types of labor, in your opinion, will not ultimately be performed by robots.

@treylorswift The only way it can cause inflation is if people want something. If they want something => demand for labor

Why would we still have Walmart greeters in a world where we have autonomous cars and chefs.