Burgerflipper

Equity perps are where crypto perps were before basis arb matured. Today: high carry, thin books, messy execution. Tomorrow: deeper liquidity, tighter spreads, lower funding, once spot access and arb capital show up. I am in both (hl/lighter)

How profitable was it to buy Bitcoin since 2020, after it was down ~25-30% in a week?

Don't be a hero. The Bitcoin 2022 bear had a single weekly candle down 34%. We're in full capitulation/unwind mode. If you're buying for "the long term", OK not a horrible spot. But ask yourself, is it really going to be for "the long term". Often people will convince themselves they are only to puke the eventual bottom.

REVENUE SHARING Buybacks for JUP don’t work just because they’re buybacks. They don’t work because people currently don’t see a reason to hold JUP. What happens? People sell into the buyback bids. IMO, the process should be: 1️⃣ Give people a reason to hold the token Give them hope and a clear narrative for why the price could go up. This is currently missing with JUP. You obviously have: One of the best teams and the best products But the token isn’t tied to the company. So even if the company is extremely successful, people have realized that it won’t necessarily benefit the token (deeper issue: token ≠ equity). 2️⃣ Do buybacks (after 1️⃣ is fulfilled) Buybacks and burns are still among the best deflationary mechanisms we have — but they take time. They’re often an exponential process: People only start noticing and pricing in the deflationary effect at a later stage. So what should be done right now? I still think ASR in $ (jupUSD) is the key. Currently: 50M JUP (~$10M) is distributed as staking rewards every quarter These funds come from unclaimed ASR, Jupuary, etc. The problem? Most people dump these tokens to offset losses. The solution? Jupiter uses 50% of its revenue to buy JUP tokens for the Litterbox. Each quarter, they buy between $10M–$20M worth of JUP. However, as described above, the effect has been minimal, even when combined with burns. A potential alternative What if we redirected those $10M toward staking rewards, instead of buying JUP for the Litterbox? At current prices, this could result in roughly 25% APY — which is insanely attractive. Even though this isn’t a directly deflationary mechanism, I’m confident it would benefit the token price more than buybacks alone. ps. this is my personal opinion and I could be wrong but I genuinely love Jupiter and the whole community