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@trscbrs
Who’s being naive, Kay?
United States Katılım Ocak 2017
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Newcastle (Yenikalespor) iyi mi kötü mü olduğunu bir türlü anlayamadığım takımlardan
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Blue team is trying to save blue team from the problem blue team created for blue team by doing the only thing that creates the problem for blue team.
Tim Urban@waitbutwhy
Everyone in the world has to take a private vote by pressing a red or blue button. If more than 50% of people press the blue button, everyone survives. If less than 50% of people press the blue button, only people who pressed the red button survive. Which button would you press?
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@waitbutwhy Would you inject a “blue” virus which will kill you unless more than 50% of people voluntarily injects it?
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These people can commit horrific war crimes across the globe, yet still feel comfortable lecturing the world about international law and human rights
Mike Pompeo@mikepompeo
Inviting Vladimir Putin to the G20 would signal to the world that aggression works, and that appeasement is back on the table. America is better than this.
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Sorry folks I said I was moving on, but this framing is quite clean, and the (angry) responses to him are revealing. I’m doing a podcast episode on this stuff so I want to keep my eye on this one.
Devon Eriksen@Devon_Eriksen_
You are offered a pill. Anyone who takes the pill, dies, unless over 50% of humanity takes the pill. Obviously, you cannot be affected by the pill if you don't take it. Is the same moral scenario as the red and blue buttons?
English
Everyone in the world has to take a private vote by pressing a red or blue button. If more than 50% of people press the blue button, everyone survives. If less than 50% of people press the blue button, only people who pressed the red button survive. Which button would you press?
English
@mean_field_zane It doesn’t require a correlated equilibrium because this removes the coordination benefits from the stag-hunt game. Coordination on blue has no advantage (unlike stag-hunt)
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I actually did the game theory math on this. Unfortunately, in the standard game with no communication/cooperation, asymmetric information, and self-interested agents, red weakly dominates. Red is equilibrium.
I’m gonna now go look at what modifications of the game change this.
Tim Urban@waitbutwhy
Everyone in the world has to take a private vote by pressing a red or blue button. If more than 50% of people press the blue button, everyone survives. If less than 50% of people press the blue button, only people who pressed the red button survive. Which button would you press?
English
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European diplomacy: Sitting in a room with people you already agree with
Donald Tusk@donaldtusk
European Council meeting. For the first time in years there are no Russians in the room. Huge relief.
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Or, simply, anyone choosing blue is stupid 😂
Peter Hague@peterrhague
Amazing how lots of self appointed game theory experts confidently asserting that blue is the stupid choice. But every time this poll is run blue wins. Not only is the “game theory” answer predicting the wrong outcome, its explanatory power is based on it being able to predict the right answer. So it’s doubly wrong.
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You are offered a pill.
Anyone who takes the pill, dies, unless over 50% of humanity takes the pill.
Obviously, you cannot be affected by the pill if you don't take it.
Is the same moral scenario as the red and blue buttons?
English
Should be put in all dictionaries
Glenn Diesen@Glenn_Diesen
European diplomacy: Sitting in a room with people you already agree with
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@bariscappadocia Not a right/left wing issue; applied game theory logic; it’s a variant of stag hunt game; not identical though
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Nice example of how right wingers and left wingers think different imho.
Ters Açı@trscbrs
There are two situations (not one) in which everyone survives: 1) 50%+1 blue 2) 100% red Socially (1) and (2) are equivalent. Individually (1) is risky, you survive only if 50% also blue. (2): certain/unconditional survival. Blue: not morally superior, just unnecessary risk
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To show this isn’t altruism versus selfishness: suppose parents are required to push the button on behalf of their children who are 5 or younger. Which button do you push on their behalf?
Tim Urban@waitbutwhy
Everyone in the world has to take a private vote by pressing a red or blue button. If more than 50% of people press the blue button, everyone survives. If less than 50% of people press the blue button, only people who pressed the red button survive. Which button would you press?
English
There are two situations (not one) in which everyone survives:
1) 50%+1 blue
2) 100% red
Socially (1) and (2) are equivalent.
Individually (1) is risky, you survive only if 50% also blue. (2): certain/unconditional survival.
Blue: not morally superior, just unnecessary risk
Tim Urban@waitbutwhy
Everyone in the world has to take a private vote by pressing a red or blue button. If more than 50% of people press the blue button, everyone survives. If less than 50% of people press the blue button, only people who pressed the red button survive. Which button would you press?
English
Korelasyon çok yüksek çıkarsa, acaba bir yerde yanlış mı yapıyorum, aynı şey mi bunlar falan diye sorgulamak gerekiyor sosyal bilimlerde. İfade hürriyeti ile demokrasi skoru gibi bir şey olabilir mesela.
Sinan Alper@SinanAlper_
Bu arada şunu da ekleyeyim, psikoloji standartlarına göre .40 üstü korelasyon aşırı büyük, nadir görülen bir şey.
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