Our stock market is down. Bond yields are up and the dollar is declining. These are not the markers of successful policy. I am receiving an increasing number of emails and texts from small business people I do business with or have invested in, expressing fear that they will not be able to pass on their increased costs to their customers and will suffer severely negative consequences. For example, I am invested in a start up that makes cold brew coffee. Here is an excerpt of an email from the founder sent prior to China tariffs doubling: “Despite our efforts to mitigate risk, the new tariffs have immediate and significant negative implications for our cost structure, and have the potential to compress our gross margin by 60%+. Coffee and glass bottles are the largest % of COGs, and will be impacted by the following newly levied tariffs: •50% increase in cost of glass bottles (sourced from China) •26% increase in cost of chai (sourced from India) •10% increase in cost of coffee (sourced from Ethiopia, Peru, and Canada) These new coffee and glass bottle tariffs alone will add an estimated $1.53 of COGS/unit for our 32oz, reducing our gross profit by nearly 60% to a ~12% gross margin (from 30%). We are currently priced at the top of the range for our set and do not believe we have the ability to increase price to offset this impact in the near-term. What is particularly concerning is the sudden and sweeping inclusion of coffee and tea in U.S. tariffs, reversing a long-standing precedent dating back to the McKinley Tariff of 1890, which removed duties on these essential commodities. The decision to apply a universal 10% tariff on all imports -- including those that have historically been exempt -- marks a dramatic shift in trade policy and presents an existential threat to Explorer Cold Brew and other specialty beverage producers. Unlike many industries, there is no 'reshoring' solution for coffee. The U.S. simply does not grow coffee at commercial scale, and domestic tea production is virtually nonexistent. There is no viable domestic alternative in the short or the long term. We remain steadfast in our commitment to navigating these challenges. We are actively evaluating all options -- supplier negotiations, cost engineering, strategic reformulations -- but the impact of this policy is real, material, and immediate. We will continue to keep you informed with full transparency as we assess and respond to these developments. Your support and partnership remain invaluable as we work to safeguard Explorer’s future and continue building a brand rooted in quality, transparency, and innovation. Please don’t hesitate to reach out with any questions or thoughts.” If you want to support Explorer Cold Brew, you can now find it at Whole Foods. A high quality cold brew available in varying degrees of caffeination for so long as it can survive. And this one from a company that designs and installs home audio and video solutions: “You wrote, “Almost no business can pass through an overnight massive increase in costs to their customers,” and I fear this could be devastating enough to put me out of business. Will my clients tolerate a near doubling of their contract costs overnight, or will they expect me to absorb the increases my vendors are already threatening? If clients resist price hikes and my employees demand higher wages to offset their rising cost of living, we end up in a lose-lose scenario—no spending and no jobs. While I understand you may not have time to respond, I hope that sharing the fears of a small business owner adds a tangible voice to the broader implications of your posts.” If the president doesn’t pause the effect of the tariffs soon, many small businesses will go bankrupt. Medium-sized businesses will be next. A 90-day pause will enable @realDonaldTrump to accomplish his objectives without destroying small businesses in the short term. May cooler heads prevail.
