Gedik Ahmet

@HeartBreakMelz Privatize MTA. Charge at least $10 per ride.

The city of New York gotta do something about getting these homeless people with mental health issues off the train durning the morning & afternoon rush hour commute. It's no reason people should have to deal with these crazy people on their way to & from work or school .

A food for thought: why is there a such a negative and linear correlation between UST yield and stock prices once we cross ~5% yield threshold? Are investors OK buying overpriced equities if the alternative risk-free yield on treasuries is less than 5%?

Almanya’da ekonomi halen aile kontrolundeki diversified holdinglerin dominasyonu altinda. Yani cok fazla non-core sayilabilecek, dusuk karlilik getiren sektorlerde operasyon gosteren ve 1-2 ailenin kontrolunde olan devasa holdingler. ABD bu modeli 80’lerde, junk bond-LBO doneminin baslamasiyla asti. Milken/Drexel’in junk bond marketini arkasina alan KKR (ve diger oncul PE’ler), bu tarz faaliyet gosteren ve potansiyelinin altinda kalan bir dolu sirketi satin alip, de-conglomeration surecinden gecirip verimliligi artirdi. RJR Nabisco bu target’larin arasinda en populerlerinden biriydi (filmi de eglencelidir). KKR bayagi ABD’nin 1988’de en buyuk 20 sirketinden birisini $20 kusur milyar dolar LBO ile alip, 10 parcaya ayirip teker teker satti. Turkiye de halen bu 19. yy congolomerate modeli ile devam etmeye calisiyor. Japonya, Guney Kore falan yine ayni gemide. ABD ise sadece kendi sektorune yogunlasan, herhangi bir ailenin kontrolunde olmayan, surekli bir activist investor ya da hostile takeover tehlikesi altinda calismak zorunda kalan sirketler doneminde son 30 yildir falan. Bu da yuksek karlilik ve shareholder return anlamina geliyor. Yoksa ABD’deki burokrasi de en az Almanlar kadar dumpkoff ve hantal.

Bunun en az dogru oldugu ulkelerden biri Turkiye. Bayagi OSS gibi standardized bir sinava girip yuksek puan alan her ogrenci, hangi mahalleden hangi babadan okursa olsun Tr’nin en iyi okullarina girebiliyor. Aileden gelen parayi kullanmak da utanilacak bir sey degil gerci. Tr’deki sikinti, elit maas verebilecek sektorlerin (iste high tech, high finance, biglaw falan) buyuyememesidir 2000’ler sonrasinda.

At one point USPS must have commissioned Albert Speer to design its buildings.

Interesting enough, the earliest primary account we have about Islam and Muhammad, Doctrina Jacobi also portrays Arabs/Muslim armies in alliance with Jews during -at lest the initial phases of- the conquest of Palestine.

@thisisomerr Yok direkt analist de aliyorlar. Zaten Stanford + GS staji yeterli olmustur.

@turanicstorm Konudan bağımsız olarak sadece staj deneyimi ile KKR’a nasıl girmiş? Genellikle basvuru sartlarında 2-3 yıl IB deneyimi isteniyor.

Turkiye’de double major kolaylastirilmali. Ozellike computer science + econ/finance yapmis bir ogrencinin ekte oldugu gibi degerlendirebilecegi is imkanlari inanilmaz fazla. Koc bu konuda Tr’nin en iyisi. Devlet okullari her zaman oldugu gibi laggard. Bilkent’in “biz zaten iyiyiz” kibri var, o yuzden geri kaliyor. Ozyegin, Bilgi, Yeditepe gibi tier-2 ozellerin bu konuda proaktif olmasi kendilerine avantaj saglar. Not enflasyonu da artirilmali.

David Morgan (Uni of Wisconsin-Madison) Mogol Imparatorlugunu “Turco-Mongol” olarak nitelendiriyor. Cengiz’in Turk geleneginin disinda gorulmesi hatadir.

“Flight to quality” concept from Bernanke’s 1996 paper in play: riskier leveraged loan yields have gone up by ~120bps while BB rated corporate bond spreads grew only by 60bps. US banks have had a trend of increasing their commercial loan exposure to riskier mid-market companies since the last rate cycle to protect NIM. Many banks have been explicitly targeting higher C&I loans over CRE. Shifting away from this strategy will likely to slow down loan growth in Q1.

Yields of USD-denominated bonds of Turkish banks shot ~100bps up since the war broke up. CDS spreads also moved up at around the same magnitude for Turkey. After a long FX deleveraging period in 2018-2023, Turkish banks had finally tapped into debt capital markets with a pent up demand in the last 24 months, but the recent sell off will curb their appetite.

Wall St seems still optimistic about TRY. Recommending selling TRY cross-FX swap payers signals expected real appreciation in TRY and/or increase in TRY interest rate differentials.

Finansbank’in bir donem ufak da olsa isleyen bir IB ekibi vardi. Sanirim 2013 gibi tamamen durmasinin sebebi Saruhan Dogan’in ayrilisi.

Hizlica baktim, TRY inflation swap oranlari savas sonrasinda %5 civarinda ziplamis gorunuyor hemen tum maturity araliginda. Reel faiz orani iyice negatif alana kaymis. Tr’de nedense reel oranlarinin pozitif oldugu inanci var ama yok boyle bir sey.

Breaking news. Even floating such rumors of Citi acquiring PNC or Truist will encourage many other peers to jump on the bandwagon. Trump administration is a golden window for any bank to carry out transformative deals.

TCMB’nin net yabanci varliklari bir ayda $70bn seviyesinden $17bn’a indi. Bunda hem altin fiyatlarindaki dusus hem de $43bn civari bir FX mudahalesinin etkisi var. Bileteral FX swaplari ve IMF SDR’larini cikarinca elde kalan altin haric FX rezervi $24bn civari. $113bn altin rezervi de ek olarak var, bunun muhtemelen $30bn civari Bank of England’da tutuluyor ve lirayi proplamak icin her an kullanilabilir. Son iki haftada $7.8bn civari altin satildi TCMB tarafindan.

Despite the modest increase since beginning of the Iran war, cash holdings of investors are still near all time lows. Broadly speaking, this implies no immediate appreciation in broad-based asset prices unless there’s an outflow from one asset class (such as bonds) to another (like equities).

Can’t recall any successful takeover of an American IB by a Japanese bank. Nomura acquired parts of Lehman and then full Greentech, which miserably fell short of expected synergies. Mizuho again took over Greenhill in the summer of 2023, and since then Greenhill has been going downhill. Jefferies -for better or worse- has an aggressive and ambitious culture, which obviously would conflict with a Japanese board known for prudence and hierarchy. I’d have expected Japanese banks to be much more successful in commercial banking in the U.S. but strangely they all prematurely quit the American market (the last of which was MUFG-controlled Union Bank which was acquired by US Bank in 2022 for $8bn).

My two takeaways from the article: i) US administration (along with a large chunk of Wall St) severely underestimated Iran’s capabilities to disrupt energy markets, ii) no one is certain about where the war will lead into. A tail risk that I think many analysts are still blind to is an emboldened China exploiting the current weakened international law and norms to blockade (or even outright invade) Taiwan. Prussian annexation of Alsace-Lorraine in 1871 was essentially a declaration of the end of post-Napoleonic world system with its boundaries and norms. Russian invasion of Ukraine coupled with the US interference in Venezuela and Iran also effectively shattered the post-1945 dominant political paradigm. This’s a dangerous world where pulling back on exposure to equities might be an optimal allocation strategy.