Precise Market Insights.
49 posts
🚨BITCOIN'S BIGGEST TRAP IS STILL AHEAD
If you think this bear market is almost over...
I think we're entering the most dangerous part of the entire cycle
Because this is exactly where most people stop expecting another major flush
Here's why:
October 2025 marked the cycle top around $126K
Since then $BTC has done what every bear market eventually does:
trend lower for months while giving just enough hope on every bounce to convince people that the worst is over
That's exactly why I still don't think this cycle is finished
Go back to the previous cycles:
2015, 2018, 2022 didn't bottom after the first crash
Every cycle had multiple relief rallies that convinced people the bear market was over before the actual cycle low was finally printed
That's the part most people ignore
Nobody buys the first dump
Most people wait for confirmation
Then Bitcoin rallies 20-40%, sentiment flips bullish again
Influencers start calling for new highs, and suddenly everyone is convinced the bottom is already in
That's usually when the market traps the largest number of people
I think we're getting very close to that stage again
Since the October high, Bitcoin has respected this descending channel almost perfectly
Every rally has produced another lower high
Every rejection has pushed price back toward the lower half of the range
Nothing about that structure tells me the bear market is over yet
If anything, it looks like we're approaching the point where Bitcoin finally breaks above the upper trendline, gets everyone excited again...
...and then delivers one last flush.
That's why my roadmap still looks like this:
$83K -> $58K -> $68K -> $45K
The move back toward the high-$60Ks isn't what worries me
That's actually the move I'm expecting
What worries me is what comes after it
A breakout into resistance after months of bearish price action is exactly the type of move that gets people chasing again
If buyers fail to hold that breakout, the next leg lower could become the final capitulation of this cycle
A lot of people immediately reject the idea of Bitcoin trading around $40K again
But historically, that wouldn't even be an extreme bear market
From the October 2025 high near $126K, a move into the $45K region would still be a smaller drawdown than several previous Bitcoin cycles experienced
That's one reason I don't think the downside scenario is as unrealistic as most people believe.
Timing also makes sense
Previous Bitcoin cycles have typically bottomed around a year after their all-time high
If October 2025 was the top, then Q4 2026 becomes the window I'd be watching for a major cycle low
Could this cycle be different?
Absolutely.
Spot ETFs exist, institutional participation is much larger
The market is far more mature than it was in 2018
That's exactly why I don't expect history to repeat candle for candle
But I do think markets repeat one thing extremely well:
They convince the majority that the pain is over before the actual bottom is in
That's the scenario I'm preparing for
Remember that I am posting news daily and monitoring each major macro event to post and warn you
So make sure to follow me and turn notifs on
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