Two Natural Capital

Wrote this week on Revolution Medicines, a company doing fascinating stuff on the RAS inhibition front twonaturalcap.com/p/revolution-m… $rvmd

Interesting description of the CML market from Terns Pharma's AR $tern One of the clearer/well-written biopharma annual reports I've read, which is perhaps a signal in and of itself!

Wild that when Celcuity went public in '17 it was a diagnostics company In '21 licensed a drug from Pfizer that was in Phase 1b trials. Will now likely be a 1B+ plus asset and a step change for those with certain types of locally advanced/metastatic BC Not a bad pivot! $celc

Bicycle $bcyc seems an interesting enough company to merit being worth more than only 0.5x cash?

@ReustleMatt Did not know that! Gotta figure out a way to get one of the co-founders on ILTB

@two_natural I believe co-founder healthcare focused? These are all things you probably know!

Wish there was more known about Adage Capital. You'd think there would be given they manage ~65B!

@ReustleMatt Yes, definitely agree. Interestingly they also seem heavier than the average generalist fund on the biopharma side of things.

@two_natural I know Bob was (is?) a stud Industrials investor. Harvard seed and friendly fee structure definitely help the cause.

Does it make sense to just buy $tern and hope for a competing bid? presumably limited downside risk

Strangely prescient comparison to make in a 2020 S1 filing! $rlay

If you want to invest in D.E. Shaw but can't get into their quant funds you can instead buy shares in Relay Therapeutics $rlay

Always good to see stocks reacting positively to FDA approval $rytm

$mrna up ~120% since this was published in November '25.

Interesting to think about whether if you'd done a bunch of KOL research on RAS inhibitors you would've come away with the impression that Revolution Medicine's multi-selective inhibitor would've caused side effects too severe for patients to continue

Interesting to conceptualize RAS multi-selective inhibitors as in some sense a shift away from a targeted therapy philosophy of treatment back towards a broader chemo-like approach.

Was today years old when I learned that both Wittgenstein and Bertrand Russell spent some time in prison during WWI

If Anthropic is truly a believer in AI they should put in an offer for Papa John's at greater than the $64 a share Apollo offered, rip out PAR, and then vibe code their own POS from Voss Capital's Q425 quarterly letter

For those interested in reading up on UniQure's miRNA technology: twonaturalcap.com/p/uniqure-hope…

Holy moly

Columbia's Olive Lab on why Revolution Medicines' pas-RAS inhibitor hasn't led to more significant side-effects Would think inhibition of non-mutant RAS would pose much more of an issue! $rvmd