typerbole

Here is a thread with pointers to my #Bitcoin analysis work:

@openoms I was using a gradient-boost decision tree model to identify JoinMarket and Wasabi transactions, which I don't want to open source as it could be used for chain surveillance. The Whirlpool transactions are easily identifiable with some SQL heuristics so that's why I can share it.

@openoms I agree that the comparisons were in theory useful. But in practice, less so because the JoinMarket numbers were lower precision (included "false positives") and the Wasabi numbers did not include 2.0

Hi friends. 1. I shut down my lightning node. My seed was backed up on LastPass so I had to close all channels and sweep funds. Apologies to all my channel partners.

3. I am rotating Nyms and will no longer use this identity 🤙

2. I shut down bitcoinkpis.com. The project was costing me time and money and I want to focus on other things going forward. My sense is that people are mainly using it to track Whirlpool stats which can be obtained by running the query below. github.com/ty-perbole/bit…

@dannydeezy bitcoinkpis.com/scaling

where are the best charts that show the growth trajectory and trends of the lightning network?

@zackvoell tbf he's having a vegan thanksgiving that's worse than jail imo

FTX exploded two weeks ago. SBF is having Thanksgiving dinner in a penthouse with his family. The NYT will interview him next week. Amazon is already planning an eight-part mini series about it with two Marvel directors. ... "clown world" doesn't even begin to describe it.

@ki_young_ju @Bitstamp The discussion seems to point to a high likelihood of those coinbases being false positives. If you were aware of this why would you send such a tweet to 300k followers? 😤

@typerbole @Bitstamp Spent on 2017-11-03 includes 2 Patoshi coinbases along with 58 non-Patoshi coinbases. Discussion is here on github github.com/janoside/btc-r…

Update

@alexbosworth Still lagging behind where segwit was at a similar time, but trending in the right direction.

P2TR spending has doubled in the past few months and in Oct it increased to 1% of all BTC transactions. LND since 0.15.1 defaults to P2TR for regular addresses but channels use SegWit v0. Hoping to see P2TR channels in LND 0.16 and work is in progress to make P2TR default in Loop

@dannydeezy This tweet aged poorly cause the merge was just a few hours later and much heistier imo

ppp loan fraud was the biggest heist in history

Finally got around to migrating to a new data source for Lighting Network data on bitcoinkpis.com after ln.bigsun.xyz was deprecated. I wrote scripts to pull the data out of my own LN node, but the numbers are lower than what I was getting earlier.

@sassal0x Didn't an EF researcher coin the term "ultra sound money"? I remember he had a whole soundbank of garrish effects on this podcast (freeze, vaporize whatever) to demonstrate how bullish 1559 was. 🤮 podcast.banklesshq.com/57-ultra-sound…

I very rarely, if ever, see the Ethereum core devs/researchers talking about the price of ETH (in fact, they actively discourage discussions around it) And yet all the haters are now saying that the only reason The Merge is happening is to pump the price of ETH Give me a break

@nopara73 @nvk 1. I have no affiliation with Samourai. 2. You are absolutely right that the JoinMarket volume on bitcoinkpis is the least accurate of the three major coinjoin implementations, I tried to convey this uncertainty with my disclaimer.

@nvk FTR that website is a scam setup by scamourais and it reports fake "proprietary" Wasabi volumes. Regarding its report of JoinMarket volumes, it's also completely off, though if you want to be charitable you can say that's just a mistake on their part. Let me explain👇

JoinMarket doesn’t have a centralized coordinator…

@RainDogDance @arbedout @nixbitcoinorg Only ~100 of the 1.6k makers in the nix order book have a bond.

JoinMarket liquidity and maker count seems to have jumped up a bit recently 👀

@arbedout twitter.com/typerbole/stat… I noticed this as well. Seems to have nearly doubled overnight on August 3. Hopefully just a quirk in the data collection from @nixbitcoinorg otherwise it looks awfully like a sybil attack

Does Tornado Cash provide *any* privacy if you signed transactions with a wallet that uses Infura or Alchemy? Presumably those two companies could (be forced to) unwind a significant portion of TC volume using IP logs. Has anyone talked about this? Seems inevitable.