Sabitlenmiş Tweet
IMO $MRDN is a true asymmetric set-up with a rare disconnection between SP and valuation. My favorite LT buy and hold that is set up for decades of global growth.
$MRDN will make $210 -$220+ mil revenue in 2026.
$MRDN 12.5 mi OS shares x $8 = market cap $100 mil.
$MRDN is trading under .5X in in a 2.5X+ sector.
At 2.5X $MRDN at 2.5X would be $500 mil market cap.
$500 mil market cap / 12.5 mil OS shares = $40 per share value.
Share structure:
12.5 mil OS shares - 90% insiders = 1.2 mil shares left
1.2 mil shares - 4% institutional = 700k retail shares.
Meridianbet and Expanse Studios appraised approximately $300 mil pre-merger. That’s without including the value of their other 4 smaller subsidiaries RKings, Golden Matrix’s GM-AG, MexPlay, CFAC, or recently acquired Fairbet. They currently have $20 mil cash on hand. Again, $MRDN’s current market cap is valued at $100 mil. That is one hell of a share price to valuation disconnection for a company that will make twice their market cap in annual revenue, has cash on hand, very little debt, and is now profitable.
With such limited shares available, any visibility or discovery will likely cause $MRDN share price to run-up very quickly. Any substantial Brazil Market capture or profitability and $MRDN will re-rate and rip similar to $RSI that ran $2 to $20 when they turned profitable after years of consolidation while executing.
Q4 2025 earnings will be released March 31st. I don’t expect $MRDN to show much 2025 net profit as they are still setting up in Brazil pre World Cup and they do not have the marketing money the bigger dogs have for customer acquisition. I anticipate they start showing considerable net profit beginning 2026 Q2 earnings or Q3 earnings in late Dec, after 2026 World Cup exposure boosts their brand recognition and their now 5 accretive subsidiaries begin cross-marketing and scaling into their newly licensed regions. With any new market capture, a realistic $220-$250 mil rev w/ $10-$20 mil net and we are looking at .80 -$1.60 EPS.
The estimated global sportsbetting handle for the 2026 World Cup is projected to exceed $70 billion, roughly 3X the approximately $23 billion total US 2026 Super Bowl wagering. With a 60% increase in matches this event is set to eclipse the Super Bowl betting handles by 200–300%, offering smaller firms a unique stage to capture a massive global audience & establish their brands in an industry-defining moment on a worldwide stage. World Cup presents a monumental revenue & branding opportunity for the online gaming companies that own and control their own high-performance AI tech. $MRDN is one of those companies with their 5th generation "Atlas" AI tech rolled out, as well as being one of less than one hundred operators able to obtain a full Federal Brazilian Gaming Lic.
$MRDN was built over 25 yrs privately with zero borrowed money and profitable the majority of their history. Unheard of in the sector. They could have sold their company and exited with $300 million but they wanted Nasdaq traded $GMGI shares, now $MRDN shares at a value of approximately $36. After the close of the merger in April 2024 they continued to buy shares and now own the majority of the company. That is one hell of a lot of confidence and skin-in-the-game to align them with remaining investors. IMO, no way they keep acquiring shares if they did not know they would continue to execute and grow.
Over a decade ago Meridianbet, wanting to control their tech and not spend on outsourcing, took the more expensive and difficult route to hire programmers and create their own AI system, knowing it would allow them to capitalize on "micro" and "live" B2C betting and create their own B2B content. They saw the tech advantages of having the ability to personalize each players account, ultimately increasing margins, as well as to comply with vast regulatory and tax requirements.
The little debt $MRDN has left is not operational, it was for compensation from their own reverse merger by $GMGI, several other accretive acquisitions, and setting up to scale in multiple new countries including Brazil, with their nearly $6 mil lic fee. This means the majority of debt, as well as one-offs, are now rear-view and they are back to profitability.
Meridian Holdings operates in over 20 countries with different currencies, languages, and regulations, processing a $2 - $3 billion dollar annual handle. They have the advantage of a proprietary tech stack as well as a closed loop ecosystem that captures value at every stage. They own their sportsbook. They own their odd's setting engine. They own their risk management algorithms. They own their casino platform. They own their content. These advantages are rare and will allow them to scale without 3rd party costs, thus driving higher margins in the long run.
$MRDN is an emerging player with multiple B2B/B2C rev stream diversity, a large regulatory and geographic moat in a rapidly growing sector, with an international market of $200 - $300 billion, expected to grow to $500 billion by 2030. $MRDN has positioned themselves early, as governments globally are fast tracking legislation to obtain the tax revenue while internet access, 5G, and cell service buildout allow for a long runway of access to capture a massive TAM.
Expanse Studios, $MRDN’s subsidiary content making company, lead by CEO Damian Stamenkovic is literally inking a new B2B partner every few days, topping 1,300 operators last year and shooting for 3000 this year. Now in over 20 countries with recent entrance into Romania, Peru, Africa, Sweden, Croatia, US, Brazil with Canada in the process. With 440% yoy growth they are doing it all: AI, Prediction Bets, Crash Games, Social Games, Casino Games, Sweepstakes Games, Mobil first, etc.
Subsidiary RKings Competitions, now Ireland’s #1, is lead by founder Mark Weir and has doubled revenue while continuing to grow. MexPlay, GM-AG, and CFAC are all continuing to scale and turn profitable. These acquisitions are “decentralized” acquisitions rather than roll-up meaning the CEO or Founder and team responsible for their success was left in place to do what they do best - continue to execute and grow.
Leadership is one of the most important factors determining $MRDN Holdings success. Meridianbet, by far the largest of the 5 $MRDN companies CEO is Zoran Milosevic. He is a steady, deliberate leader defined by an "infrastructure-first" approach. Zoran is the definition of a fiscally responsible, no-hype "execution-based" CEO, emphasizing Meridianbet is not a promised based company but an execution-based company. Exactly what I look for in a CEO.
Zoran champions capital discipline and long-term value creation. Unlike many competitors that rely on high-burn capital raises, he focuses on organic profitability and finding niche markets where the company can maintain margins. He has mentioned several times how Meridianbet simply will not operate in an area at a loss, and emphasizes mitigating risk by owning and controlling their own technology stack.
Meridianbet is not a company that is going to compromise anything to fluff the next earnings numbers. They repeatedly state they are NOT looking at the next quarters earnings, they are looking at the next 100 years. They have no intention of selling their shares and that is a big concern considering the amount they own.
Zoran has a rare strong moral and ethical code explicitly aligned with his business ethics. He believes $MRDN can increase value for shareholders at the same time as they increase value for society at large by placing an emphasis on responsibility, community impact and long-term thinking.
Aligning with Zoran’s philosophy, $MRDN is second to none when it comes to making a community impact in the regions they operate. Meridianbet conducts nearly 300 CSR, ESG, community impact initiatives, and public service programs per year—293 in 2024 across 25 markets—delivering massive impact as well as via its Meridian Donate Platform that lets players directly fund healthcare, education, sports, and social projects, thereby building brand loyalty and trust in every community it serves. Unlike others, they don’t spend a large amount of money blanketing media with expensive celebrity ads. They support making authentic positive and needed changes in their regional communities.
This philosophy has gained Meridianbet has an impeccable regulatory history with zero "red flags”. The last thing I want to see is media headlines with my investment involved in legal trouble. $MRDN decreases legal and regulatory risks by being actively involved in governments regulatory efforts to decrease predatory black market operators and add credibility to the industry.
IMO $MRDN Holdings is a multi-decade story. A miss-understood, undiscovered asymmetric opportunity. Could I loose my investment? Possibly, but I try to minimize risk by investing in companies w/a long history of fiscally responsible execution, profitable or turning profitable, multiple revenue stream diversity, a large amount of insider skin-in-the-game, and a share valuation that has not run-up.
As far as a risk profile, for Meridian Holdings to fail, they would need to quit growing after 25+ yrs of expansion into 20 countries right after they achieved Nasdaq listing and rolled out their AI tech platform "Atlas" that will increase margins. Also, right before their two largest catalysts in their history: #World Cup 2026 and being granted a coveted Federal #Brazil igaming/sportsbetting license. Highly unlikely. Expanse Studios, that is growing on steroids, pumping out new games, and on the way to doubling their partnerships would need to suddenly stop growing. RKings, now Ireland's #1 and is growing double digits, would need to come to an unexpected halt. MexPlay, Golden Matrix’s GM-AG, Fairbet and Australia’s CFAC would need to stop growing in their incipient stage.
I am not an advisor and this is for fun! These are simply my personal opinions.
$ONDS $CIFR $DLO $GRAB $IRMD $MELI $IREN $META $NU $PDEX $TSLA $TSM $ZETA $ELRA $AMZN $SOFI $HIMS @James_Wolff3 @Pickza10 @LouBasenese
@PaulYuen521 @BullishBeppels @SmallCapGmGi @RyanCox92826936 @Cameron29620977 @jasonmiller7270 @PaulYuen521 @russino_brian @ZacksSmallCap @DirectorsTalk
@GMGI_Official @meridianbet_ofc
@expanse_studios @meridianbet @meridianbet_br @MeridianbetPE @meridianbet_ng
English
