Ulrich Hildebrand

QUESTION: WILL THE NEXT WORLD ORDER BE BUILT ON GOLD OR AI?

@MOSSADil Netanyahu is contrary to Europeans: “Leaders are tasked with the task of seeing danger in time and acting on it.”

@gnoble79 Financial Apocalypse - Always the same story, always the same outcome. Too much cheap money, too much leverage, too little discipline, and a financial credit product sold as "safe" to people who didn't understand what they owned.

Private credit didn't blow up because of Blue Owl or bad software loans or AI disruption. Those were SYMPTOMS. The disease is the same one I've seen 3 times in 45 years on Wall Street: Too much money, too much leverage, too little discipline, and a financial product sold as "safe" to people who didn't understand what they owned. Private credit grew to $3 trillion on a simple lie - that you could earn 9-10% yields with "semi-liquidity" on assets that have no liquid market. That's not investing. That's volatility laundering. And the Street dressed it up beautifully. "Private credit." Sounds so exclusive, so sophisticated. Illiquid loan sharking would be more accurate. And don't get me started on "private equity", another Wall Street rebrand designed to make LEVERAGED BUYOUTS sound like fine wine. They changed the name because the old one scared people. The risk didn't change. Just the marketing. Wall Street has always been brilliant at one thing: rebranding risk as exclusivity and selling it to people who don't know what they're buying. Now add oil at $113 a barrel and watch the whole thing come apart. The Strait of Hormuz is shut. The IEA is calling it the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market. The Fed held rates steady yesterday and the market just RIPPED AWAY expectations for even a single cut this year. Oil is the fuse. But the TNT was packed years ago. Oil above $100 means inflation stays sticky. No rate cuts. Every overleveraged borrower inside these private credit portfolios gets squeezed harder every single month. Interest coverage ratios deteriorate. Defaults tick up. Valuations get marked down. And when valuations drop, the leverage stacked on top of that leverage (the "back-leverage" that banks provide using those same loans as collateral) starts to unwind. And JPMorgan already started. They marked down software loan collateral and restricted lending to private credit funds. When the biggest bank in America pulls back, that's a SIGNAL. High-yield spreads just surged to 470 basis points. The widest in years. Credit markets are screaming what equity markets haven't fully heard yet. I've watched this exact pattern before. - Junk bonds in the '80s - Dot-com leverage in 2000 - Structured mortgage products in 2007 The product changes every time but the architecture never does: Wall Street creates something complex, sells it as safe, layers leverage on top, markets the yields to retail investors, and collects enormous fees on the way in. Then something breaks and the gates go up. The people who built the machine are fine - they already got paid. The people who bought the brochure are trapped behind locked doors. $265 billion in market cap already wiped from the major PE firms. I don't think we're close to done. And you know what? That's FANTASTIC. Perhaps we'll finally get some real price discovery. Just say no to mark to model. Holders of this fine merchandise will get the returns they deserve. The pension funds, endowments, and insurance companies that piled into this garbage should take the hit. No bailouts. NONE. This nonsense has gone on far too long and moral hazard is the predictable result. The only way to end this insanity is to let Mr. Market operate. Allow price discovery. Allow bankruptcy. No more money printing. No more crony capitalism. No more extend and pretend. Blow it all up. That is the only way. "But what about the individuals who get hurt!" Better to take the hit now and reset than continue down this road. Hyper-financialization is destroying our economy and enriching the fortunes of the few. This must stop. NOW. But I have little confidence it will. We'll get more of the same: Rule changes. Special accommodations. The inevitable big ease will come. Count on it. AND BUY GOLD

🚨 NETANYAHU: BYPASS HORMUZ & STOP IRAN BEFORE “APOCALYPSE” PM Benjamin Netanyahu called for new regional energy routes to bypass key chokepoints: What’s needed are “oil pipelines, gas pipelines going west… right up to our Mediterranean ports,” eliminating reliance on the Strait of Hormuz and Bab-el-Mandeb. He warned of the growing Iranian threat, quoting Churchill on the “jarring gong of danger,” adding: “That’s not a jarring gong. That is an apocalypse… Don’t let it happen.” Netanyahu emphasized urgency and leadership: “Leaders are tasked with the task of seeing danger in time and acting on it.” He also backed U.S. partnership: “America is not fighting for Israel. America is fighting with Israel… to protect civilization against these barbarians.” He added the war could end “a lot faster than people think.” Stay connected, follow @MOSSADil.

@elerianm @TheShortBear Shorting private credit reminds me of Michael Burry 2007.

@burrytracker Remember GFC - finally - every credit crisis ends up being a banking crisis.

@zerohedge Maggy 7 are benefiting first from AI by optimizing their own operations.

@EricLDaugh German chancellor might be afraid about Islam in Germany.

🚨 BREAKING: NATO SecGen Mark Rutte has just STUNNED the world by coming out in full support of President Trump and DEMANDING that our allies step it up "What the US is doing at the moment is degrading that capability of Iran, and I think that's VERY important!" "This is important for European security, for the Middle East, it is vital for Israel itself." "Then when it comes to the Hormuz trade, everybody agrees this trade cannot stay closed! It HAS to open up again as soon as possible." "This is a crucial world economy. In my contacts with allies, what I'm seeing is that they are intensely discussing amongst each other, with the United States and amongst each other, the best way forward to tackle this huge security issue." He gets it! The allies must step up. 🇺🇸

Remember, if the big banks are "offering" you a way to make money, you're the exit liquidity.

@elerianm AI “eats” the labor market.

Better labor market news for the UK going into a more challenging period due to the spillover effects of the Middle East War: The UK economy added 20,000 jobs in February, building on an upwardly revised 6,000 increase in January. Both were better than expected, as was the unchanged unemployment rate of 5.2%. Less good is what the labor market will have to deal with in the period ahead due to the stagflationary wind blowing from the Middle East War. #economy #uk

This, from Bloomberg, is not good news for a market segment that is already challenged to separate signal from noise, let alone properly differentiate among funds/firms in this space. #markets #privatecredit

Capital intense vs light Instead of the “old” economy investing in tech, it’s now tech investing in the old economy Capital-intensive stuff-makers are back in the driver’s seat, which is pretty remarkable, considering that that really hasn’t been true for pretty much the entirety of the 21st Century.

Meta Plans 20% Layoffs To Divert Capital To Data Centers zerohedge.com/markets/meta-p…

@Barchart Banking Crises looming Cockroaches everywhere in Privat Credit - will finally lead to bank failures as they finance the middleman.

Deutsche Vormachtstellung Der Satz „Am deutschen Wesen mag die Welt genesen“ stammt ursprünglich von dem Dichter Emanuel Geibel. Er veröffentlichte die Zeile 1861 im dritten Kapitel seines Gedichts „Deutschlands Beruf“. Das Zitat wurde später oft zu „Am deutschen Wesen soll die Welt genesen“ umgedeutet und politisch instrumentalisiert. Wichtige Fakten zum Hintergrund: Originaltext: „Und es mag am deutschen Wesen / Einmal noch die Welt genesen“. Kontext: Geibel schrieb dies in der Zeit des Vormärz, um für die Einheit Deutschlands unter preußischer Führung zu werben. Interpretation: Ursprünglich war es ein Aufruf zur Einigung und als friedliche Wirkung des geeinten Deutschlands gedacht. Verbreitung: Später, besonders zur Zeit des Kaiserreichs, wurde der Satz in ein Schlagwort für eine deutsche Vormachtstellung umgedeutet.

Die ganze Welt ist verblendet, nur wir nicht. Atomkraft, nein danke! Und es mag am deutschen Wesen einmal noch die Welt genesen.

BREAKING 🚨: JP Morgan $JPM forced to mark downs loans and has decided to reduce lending to private credit groups 🤯 Blue Owl, Blackstone, BlackRock, now JP Morgan 👀

@zerohedge Shadow bank runs are increasing.

Loans To Non-Banks Threaten Banking Crisis zerohedge.com/markets/loans-…

@tomdabassman Due to an ideological malady, Germans have a very slow learning curve.

++EIL++EIL++EIL++ Von der Leyen: Reduzierung von Atomkraft war strategischer Fehler - EU stellt Gelder für Entwicklung neuer Atomreaktoren bereit youtube.com/watch?v=36DtHs…

@Schuldensuehner Watch airline stocks - might become a buying opportunity.

Airline stocks have slipped into a bear market as soaring oil prices pose what analysts call an “existential” threat to the industry. Deutsche Bank warned that the recent spike in fuel costs could severely undermine carriers’ profitability. The bank pointed out that the industry was badly hit the last time fuel prices surged in 2005, a shock that ultimately pushed Delta Air Lines and Northwest Airlines into bankruptcy. finance.yahoo.com/news/airlines-…