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YAROSSLAV
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YAROSSLAV
@undefinedKi
Prediction Markets Enthusiast | @zscdao member
Prediction markets addict Katılım Mart 2015
711 Takip Edilen216 Takipçiler
@undefinedKi @PolymarketTrade @Polymarket flipping from strike to ceasefire is the real edge - trade the narrative, not your opinion. most people marry one side and lose
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This Polymarket trader already cashed $66K betting on the US strike on Iran
Now he's putting $43K on the opposite side - YES on a ceasefire by March 31 and April 15
4 predictions. $80K all-time profit
He's not picking a side. He's following the money as the narrative shifts.
Strike trade worked. Now he thinks the diplomatic window is opening.
Profile link > @nothingeverfrickinghappens?r=yarosslav#fJ5HxoG" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">polymarket.com/@nothingeverfr…
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@banan_crypto @Polymarket pretty sure thats backpacks own market maker, loses on polymarket but prints on volume fees and dumping BP into the hype he created
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He has definitely lost faith in Backpack after the loss on its FDV market
Backpack FDV market on @Polymarket has reached a resolution
Only ‘>$100M’ and ‘>$200M’ resolved as YES
And trader ‘KKStone’ who bought more different outcomes got a -$169,336 there
I think he’ll be more careful with overconfidence next time XD
banana0x@banan_crypto
The whale on the Backpack FDV market has -$319,502 on his shares there Backpack believer bet $650K on the FDV market on @Polymarket Shares that he bought: FDV >$200M - $426K in shares >$300M - $230K >$100M - $9K >$500M - $20K But now his shares are at a total loss of $319K There’s still half a day left before that market resolves Who knows mb everything will change Does he still believe in Backpack? XD
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We’re all used to watching success on social media
But not everyone understands it’s mostly just curated highlights
Your brain gets tricked - until you become aware of it
Your only real competitor is yourself - until you realize that
If you want to stop feeling like you’re not successful:
> Remove "rich lifestyle" content from your feed ASAP
> Or better - just delete social media
After that, you’ll start to notice real change
You’ll begin to see progress and value in your own actions
You’ve seen a lot of "successful" people - but ignored your own growth
And it all starts with your mindset
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@shtanga0x @Polymarket fee expansion basically wiped out the thin margin arb bots, only the ones with real edge survive now
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Less than 1% of bots will survive on Polymarket
50% of bots died after launching fees in January
Nowadays fees aren’t just charged on Up/Down markets
But on literally every type of markets (except Iran-related onrs)
And it means there'll be almost no bots left on @Polymarket
Bots that actually worked used to take a small % of the profit per trade
Something like 0.2–0.5%. And there were a lot of such trades
That's how the profit was generating
But now the avg commission across the markets is 1.2%
The profits the bots used to generate may not exceed the commission
This results in unprofitable trades and low bot efficiency
And some bots will only show losing trades and stop working
So if you have your own ClawdBot, be sure to check it and correct its strategy if necessary
Btw, there won't be any decrease of them in CT in any case :)
Lunar@LunarResearcher
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@slash1sol the three bot setup running in parallel with different strategies is actually the right architecture
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CLAUDE BUILT ME 3 ICE-COLD POLYMARKET BOTS IN JUST 18 MINUTES
Woke up to +$2,847 in my wallet.
Zero clicks from me.
No amygdala screaming "SELL" in 12 milliseconds.
No FOMO chasing tops.
No revenge trading after a loss.
Just three emotionless machines running 24/7:
[
-> MACD Momentum Hunter - catches volume before the crowd wakes up
-> RSI + VWAP Reversal Sniper - enters against the panic
-> CVD Smart Money Follower - follows the real money, not the price
]
Each bot on its own account. Running in parallel.
Scaled through Research -> Backtest -> Incubate.
This is exactly how Citadel, Jane Street and Renaissance have been eating the market for years.
My live Polymarket bot is already printing.
Direct link: polymarket.com/?r=cryptotrade
Manual trading in 2026 is officially dead imo.
Full breakdown + ready code in the article below.
You don’t need to build it yourself anymore.
The exact same cold, autonomous system I run is now live and open for copy trade via @join" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">kreo.app/@join
Same brain. Same edge. Same 24/7 printing.
Just connect your wallet and let the machine work while you sleep.
Copy the bots here: t.me/KreoPolyBot?st…
Systems > Emotions. Always.
Save this alpha so you don't lose it.
zostaff@zostaff
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maybe you're worrying about a future you don't even exist in, so start trading on Polymarket
-> polymarket.com/?r=firstbet
slash1s@slash1sol
I JUST FOUND ONE OF THE MOST MIND-BENDING SOLO DEV STORIES IN THE QUANT SPACE RIGHT NOW. One dev built a fully autonomous trading bot for Polymarket optimized for micro bankrolls ($100-$500) using GPT-5-nano inside AutoResearchClaw, Qwen 2.5 inside MiroFish, and Opus 4.6 + Codex pipelines inside Antigravity. The craziest detail: the final bot runs with zero AI under the hood. It’s pure mathematics. No models, no prompts - just hard-coded logic engineered to sit in the order book 24/7 and harvest tiny spreads and inefficiencies created by other traders. He calls the architecture PICO - a solo-operator framework for small-budget prediction market trading. Here’s how he actually built it: -> Research stage: fed the basic idea into open-source AutoResearchClaw with GPT-5-nano. It produced a full academic-grade paper from scratch, complete with risk management, slippage modeling, backtesting realities, and protection against emotional trading. -> Validation: ran massive multi-agent simulations in MiroFish with Qwen 2.5. Market makers, informed whales, momentum players, noise traders and the bot itself interacted in realistic Polymarket conditions. The system proved consistent small profits under brutal real-world stress. -> Implementation: fed the finished paper plus simulation results to heavy Codex + Opus 4.6 pipelines in Antigravity. They output clean, production-ready bot code. The bot doesn’t try to predict events. It’s a relentless harvester of dust on spreads and other participants’ mistakes. Full PICO paper: drive.google.com/file/d/1dRjNNT… AutoResearchClaw framework (the exact open-source tool used for the research stage): x.com/slash1sol/stat… I’m honestly starting to feel myself dissolve watching this new reality. With nothing but a laptop and internet, the barrier to building sophisticated, validated quant systems has basically collapsed. Save this if you’re into AI-augmented building - the entire pipeline is pure template material.
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@ninedol @Polymarket @PolymarketTrade 56% win rate but still printing means the sizing on winners is doing all the work
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This trader turned $463 into $11,800 by trading only the weather
No sports, politics, cryptocurrency, or other markets - just day-to-day trading in the weather market.
His most impressive wins:
>$6 -> $300
>$33 -> $700
>$50 -> $400
Last month, he earned $9,000, and his win rate is 56%.
His profile: @wegotit2green" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">polymarket.com/@wegotit2green
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@0xInari_ @PolymarketSport nice trade man that second set turnaround was the whole market right there
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and here it is!
Rybakina makes the semifinals
insane match, super tense from the start
Pegula dominated the 1st set, winning games confidently and getting breaks
2nd set Rybakina took full control of the game and kept it until the end
huge respect to Pegula for a great match, congrats Elena
and shoutout to @Polymarket for the juicy odds
ps:
hesitated for a while but bought Rybakina before the match
good decision 🙂↕️
The Tennis Letter@TheTennisLetter
The moment Elena Rybakina beat Jessica Pegula in Miami to reach her 13th WTA 1000 semifinal. She’s now won 13 of her last 14 matches against top 10 players. Miss Terminator still doing her thing. 😮💨 🇰🇿🩵
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@gusik4ever @Stitch3_ai rewarding actual influence in a niche over follower count is a completely different model, curious how they measure it
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been thinking about why most creator platforms feel kind of gross to use
it's because they pay for noise. post this, tag that, here's $2 lmao
doesn't matter if your take is good, matters if you have 50k followers and post fast>>>
i found @Stitch3_ai and noticed that they are doing something structurally different
> they built a graph on Bittensor that maps actual influence within niches
> not vanity metrics, but who genuinely moves conversations in spaces like prediction markets
> and ONLY those people are eligible for rewards
so instead of "shill this to your audience", it's more like if you already think and post about prediction markets, and people in that space actually engage with what you say, you can get rewarded for the analysis you'd be doing anyway
it's a different model than infofi, that's why it caught my attention.
kind of refreshing honestly
i like it
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WHITE HOUSE EMPTY?
> Record low pizza orders
> US invasion odds are near historic highs
> Iran says no peace talks are happening
A fresh wallet just put over $70,000 on an invasion
Potential payout: $125,000+
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turned $1,100 into $5,000 with a Polymarket bot
sat with a friend and ran one of the setups going around on twitter
we already knew the logic
just wanted to see if it could actually make money live
few hours later my friend had it running
5 days later his balance was at $5,000
nothing magical about it
> scan contracts
> filter noise
> hit cleaner entries
> kill risk early
same market
same contracts
same info
difference is execution
people still think the edge is having better opinions
starting to look like the real edge is just speed
Kirill@kirillk_web3
Claude Bot on Polymarket — Full Guide The same setup turned $1,000 into $1.5M. 2 hours. Nothing complicated. Bookmark this so you don’t lose it.
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> you're giving your agent computer access
> it can read your email, open your browser, run terminal commands
and the first thing most people do is install a lot of useless skills without reading a single line of code
one bad SKILL.md and it's not your agent anymore
sopersone@sopersone
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@martynov014 clean structural edge, basically free money if the timing holds
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i earned $56 in a few minutes on fireplace by 15m market
another one free profit at Up or Down 15m markets
that's simple guide how to earn free money:
- deposit $400 at fireplace
- 1 day before market starts i buy at 51-52c
- when market launching i sell at 58-62c by limit order
statistically, in the 1st minute bet is already sold by limit order, because at the begining the market odds at Up increases
p.s. it's only at 9 00 - 9 15 am et market
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@MisterNoComents hilbert transform is a wild choice but if it works it works
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🚨My friend made $25,944.74 on Polymarket in one day.
A bot based on Claude + Hilbert transform + Kelly Criterion makes 100-170% from one trade in 5 minutes.
It all started after he watched a video Kirill posted about micro-inefficiencies in prediction markets.
Instead of manually mimicking 5-minute "Bitcoin Up or Down" contracts, he launched a high-frequency bot in Claude that evaluates probabilities in real time.
It's completely hardcore.
The core model relies on tick analysis using MACD and RSI to estimate instantaneous momentum.
But the pure alpha return lies elsewhere: the bot uses a Hilbert transform to calculate cycle phase and filter out noise, combined with custom 0xomega logic for the final evaluation.
Together, these metrics generate a real-time probability of a precise candle close.
But spotting a setup is only half the battle.
The bot effectively extracts liquidity from the market using the built-in Kelly Criterion.
The algorithm dynamically calculates position sizes based on precise mathematical advantages.
The profit and loss plan speaks for itself: the machine accurately identified a contract with a 4900% profit, allocated $374 based on the Kelly Criterion, and earned $18,300 in a single trade! When probability is absolute, the algorithm confidently fills volumes of $2,000-$4,000, generating 100-170% profit in just 5 minutes.
NO EMOTIONS, JUST A FLAWLESS STREAK OF WINS, ONE AFTER ANOTHER.
Kirill@kirillk_web3
Claude Bot on Polymarket — Full Guide The same setup turned $1,000 into $1.5M. 2 hours. Nothing complicated. Bookmark this so you don’t lose it.
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how it feels when project rugged you, but you still made a profit
Spivach@0xSpivach
Made another $1.7k scalping Backpack FDV without touching the airdrop Entered this market 9 days before launch betting NO on "Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch" My idea was simple: terrible airdrop distribution + negative community reaction = a failed launch. But here's the thing - I wasn't confident enough to hold through resolution. Why I exited early: $200M FDV isn't that high of a floor. It was obvious that whales could easily manipulate the price during the launch to hit that number. So I took my +79%, $1.75k profit two days before launch and stepped aside. What happened next: Market was trading at ~70% YES the day before resolution. And then it suddenly shoots up to 99% YES, right at the last moment. The manipulation played out exactly as expected, everyone who held NO got rekt. Sometimes the smart play isn't predicting the outcome - it's predicting the manipulation and exiting before it happens. 79% in profit instead of -100%, am i cooking? If you want to copy or follow me, you're free to do it, here is my profile: @0xspivach?r=0xSpivach" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">polymarket.com/@0xspivach?r=0…
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@Lummox_eth the implied probability arb when odds sum below 100% is the cleanest edge on the platform, no opinion needed
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BEST RISK/REWARD TRADER FOR COPYING ON POLYMARKET
I used Claude to filter 15k traders and find the best
“It took 25 minutes to find them,filter all traders with 75%+ WR, choose best markets”
Claude showed me 37 traders and Swisstony with $5,6M PNL
Wallet : @swisstony?r=Lummoxeth#bj425Dl" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">polymarket.com/@swisstony?r=L…
I looked through him and saw some strategies which is always used
He turned $5.68 -> $5,604,411 for last 8 months
His best strategies :
1. Buy & Hold to Settlement
Volume : $494M | Return: ~1% |
Net : ~$4.96M
Example : buy at $0.61 → settles at $1.00 → +$0.39
2. High-Frequency Symmetric Hedging
Trades : 5,500+ | Avg profit: $156/trade
Buy ↑ + ↓ simultaneously
Example : ↑ $0.52 + ↓ $0.45 = $0.97 cost → win $1.00 → +$0.03
Median size : < $6 | Mode: 24/7
3. Implied Probability Arbitrage
Example : Team A 56.8¢ + Team B 39.4¢ = 96.2¢
Always pays $1.00 → locked profit +$0.038
Only works when sum of odds < 100%
I have already started using these strategies
Made 430$ for last 48 hours
Try it 100%
Lummox@Lummox_eth
SMART COPYING IS ALL YOU NEED TO MAKE MONEY Claude helps you to find the best trader and his formulas Top traders usually use 2-4 strategies in trading.Quality > quantity in the situation 100% RN1 is the best example account : @RN1?r=Lummoxeth#8mpAcXl" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">polymarket.com/@RN1?r=Lummoxe…
He made $6,3M for last 8 months with total WR about 79% I analysed the trader using Claude which looked every his bet In ten minutes it showed me his 2 best formulas for trading : RSI : RSI = 100 - (100 / (1 + RS)) RS = Avg Gain / Avg Loss (N=14) RSI > 70 → Sell | RSI < 30 → Buy MA Crossover : SMA = (P1+P2+...+PN) / N EMA = P×k + EMA_prev×(1-k), k = 2/(N+1) Fast MA crosses UP → Buy (Golden Cross) Fast MA crosses DOWN → Sell (Death Cross) I have already started copying him and my results are good 150$ -> 270$ for last two days English
strong opinion:
tether deserves a lot of accolades for the way they have been moving lately.
as someone who tracks crypto fundraising, i’ve noticed that they are going hard in supporting new protocols, they are investing heavily in crypto startups.
not only that, they have also just hired auditors to audit the USDT reserves.
(if you’ve been here for a while, i’m sure you can relate to the scandals surrounding their reserves)
like they used to say, let your apologies be as loud as your criticism.
i’m giving them their flowers 🫡 a +EV to the space
Onyx 🦣♦️@web3onyx
coffee news with onyx EP 64 ======================================= >>Bitcoin faces 20% crash risk as japan yields hit 27-year high >>Circle issued $500 million of its USDC stablecoin on the Solana network on March 24, boosting the total supply on that blockchain to over $8 billion >> CT sigh relief as elon musk pauses an update that gives more weight to creators impressions from their home region >>OpenAI shuts down sora video platform app >>Pudgy penguins launches pengu card on visa in partnership with KAST >>Solana frontier hackathon 2026 announced for April 6 – May 11, 2026 >>Epic Games lays off over 1,000 employees (including dedicated developer) amid fortnite slowdown and the gaming industry headwinds >>Silver futures volume on crypto exchanges nears $4.6B >>Zama, T-REX launch privacy layer for wall street RWAs >>Binance smart chain overtakes solana in DEX volume fueled by 'alpha' incentives >>Tether has hired a Big four accounting firm for the first full, independent audit of its USDT reserves >>On-chain investigator ZachXBT has uncovered evidence suggesting a Russian Over-the-Counter (OTC) broker assisted a ransomware gang in laundering $4.7 million >>Silo V3 targets institutional capital with new liquidation model >>Circle plunges 16% as rate hike fears pull bitcoin below $70,000 >>Tether invests $1.5B in AI health company eight sleep >>Ethereum targets 2029 for quantum-proof security with public roadmap >>BlackRock eyes AI for crypto growth, calls altcoins 'nonsense' >>BitGo taps susquehanna to launch institutional prediction markets >>The Royal Government of Bhutan is liquidating its sovereign Bitcoin treasury, transferring over $72 million in March 2026 as its total holdings have fallen by more than 58% from their 2024 peak >>Chinese regulators have barred the founders of AI startup Manus from leaving the country, jeopardizing Meta's planned $2 billion acquisition >>Perle labs token $PRL will be listed on exchanges today at 11:00 AM (UTC) Exchanges includes MEXC, Kucoin, Bitget, Coinbase, Binance Alpha that is all for today, which of the headlines and news caught your attention?? ONYX OUT
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