Origin Financial

Bad financial advice has existed for ages. Origin’s AI Advisor changes that.

A new Gallup survey found that a record 55% of Americans say their financial situation is getting worse — one of the most negative readings we’ve ever seen, outside of the Great Recession. This is now the…fifth straight year more people have said their finances are deteriorating rather than improving. The reason isn’t especially complicated: it’s still affordability. About 31% of Americans say inflation or high prices are the biggest financial problem facing their household, with energy and housing costs right behind it. Healthcare, transportation, and basically anything that shows up on a monthly statement are all part of the same story.

Economists' first projection for Q1 GDP growth just came in at 2% annualized — roughly in line with expectations. This was a big rebound from Q4, and in contrast to a downward trend in projections leading up to the release. But — on the flip side of that growth is another kind —because today, the U.S. national debt officially crossed over the 100% of GDP threshold. We have roughly ~$31.265 trillion in publicly held debt, while last year’s GDP was about $31.216 trillion. This wasn’t unexpected by any means, and there’s no switch-flip from 99% to 100%, but crossing this line is both psychologically and economically disturbing. We surpassed 100% briefly back in 2020, but the U.S. hasn’t officially ended a fiscal year above this milestone since 1946 — and there’s no sign of a reversal coming this time.

For several decades now, the job of bonds has simply been: When the market goes down, these should offset my losses a bit. But over the past 5-6 years, bonds have grown more interlinked with the markets — what used to be an alternative has now become just another asset to sell. So, what changed? In the old setup, bad news for the economy usually meant lower growth, lower rates, and a boost for bonds. Since 2020, though, the dominant risk hasn’t just been growth — it’s inflation. When inflation is the problem, that relationship breaks. A shock that hurts stocks can also push yields higher, forcing bond prices down. So instead of acting as a hedge, bonds start moving in the same direction as equities — especially during periods of stress. At the same time, bonds themselves have become a bit less “safe” than they used to be. Governments are issuing more debt, central banks are stepping back from being consistent buyers, and investors are demanding higher yields to compensate.

The middle class is shrinking — but is that bad, or good? New research from AEI found that the share of Americans in the upper middle class has surged over time — from about 10% in 1979 to roughly 31% today. At the same time, the share of people considered poor or near-poor has actually declined, falling from around 30% to 19%. But it’s not a singular narrative all the way through, because the gains haven’t been evenly distributed. Income has grown across the board, but it’s grown faster at the top — meaning the distance between groups is still widening. So is this good, or bad? It really depends on how you define progress.

Nearly half of college students say they’ve spent a meaningful amount of time thinking about changing their major because of AI, and about 1 in 6 have already done it. That’s a pretty aggressive response to something that, at least so far, hasn’t actually played out in the way people keep describing it. If you look at what AI can do right now, it’s not replacing jobs in clean, obvious chunks. It’s just getting better at pieces of them. MIT’s latest work has models handling around 65% of text-based tasks at a “good enough” level, with that number likely to climb over time — but “good enough” still comes with a lot of caveats, and most of it still requires a person involved somewhere along the line. So the reality is slower and more uneven than the narrative. Jobs aren’t disappearing overnight — they’re getting chipped at, reorganized, and in some cases, made more valuable depending on how the work changes. Students don’t really have the luxury of waiting to see how that shakes out, though. If you’re in school right now, you’re making decisions based on what you think the market will look like in a few years, not what it looks like today. And right now, the signal you’re getting is a mix of “learn this immediately” and “this entire category of work might not exist,” often in the same conversation.

New web apps on Mobbin this week. Featuring @useorigin, @OpenAI, @letsavee, and 1 more. Check them out on mobbin.com

March’s CPI print came out on Friday, and it came in hot at 3.3%. That’s an 0.9% month-over-month leap, and the highest level we’ve seen in two years. We don’t really have to sit around and wonder what caused it, either: Energy prices were up 12.5%, gasoline 18.9%, and fuel oil up 44.2% year-over-year from last March, a drastic acceleration from what we saw in February, pre-Iran conflict. Core inflation, which excludes volatile categories like food and energy, came in at 2.6% — that’s an uptick of just 0.1% from last month and under the 2.7% forecast — compared to the 0.9% leap that headline inflation took.

Car loans are quietly starting to look a lot like home loans — just without the appreciation. New vehicle prices are up roughly a third since 2020, pushing the average sticker north of $50,000. What used to be a $300–$400 obligation now averages $760, and nearly one in five loans now clears $1,000 a month — so the traditional four- or five-year auto loan has stretched into six, seven, and even eight-year territory. Americans now carry roughly $1.66 trillion in auto debt, up hundreds of billions from five years ago. Delinquencies are climbing fastest among lower-credit borrowers, and repossessions have surged back to levels last seen after the financial crisis.

The labor market just defied expectations — again — with the BLS reporting 178,000 new jobs for the month of March. This has become a recurring pattern this year: For three months in a row, the jobs report has either under- or overshot what economists expected. January’s report was unexpectedly good and was later revised upward to +160,000; February’s was already tragic (92,000 jobs lost), and then it was revised further downward to 133,000 jobs lost. March’s report is no different. The consensus estimate amongst economists was around ~60,000 jobs added, another decent rebound month, with unemployment holding steady at 4.4%. What we got instead was double that, and unemployment declined slightly to 4.3%.

The people with the most schooling are currently the least impressed with the job market. According to new Gallup data, just 27% of college graduates say now is a good time to find a quality job, versus 44% of non-graduates. Among workers specifically, the gap looks even uglier: only 19% of college-educated employees say it’s a good time to find a quality job, compared with 35% of workers without a degree. Which feels backwards until you look at where the hiring weakness actually is. Hiring has slowed, and it’s slowed most in the kinds of jobs degree-holders tend to chase. Software developer listings were down 29% from pre-pandemic levels in March. Marketing jobs were down 27%. Media and communications roles were down 36%. Meanwhile, manufacturing and healthcare postings have held up much better. So yes, some of this is probably just vibes. White-collar workers do tend to be a little more online, a little more exposed to AI discourse, and a little more prone to reading three headlines and deciding civilization is ending by lunch. But some of it is also just math: If you’re a college-educated worker, especially in a professional field, the market really does look worse than the headline unemployment rate suggests.

Streaming services are veering dangerously close to that “bill you hate paying, but you just have to pay it” vibe. Prices across the major platforms have climbed fast over the past few years. Since 2019, Disney+ is up 172%, Apple TV is up 160%, Peacock is up 120%, Hulu is up 58%, and even Netflix — the most stable of the bunch — is up 38%. But the price hikes aren’t slowing demand. U.S. households now subscribe to an average of four streaming services and spend roughly $40 a month doing it. It’s become a bit of a tangled mess, and as a result, the streaming economy is also drifting back toward bundles — which is…exactly the same structure everyone once ditched cable to escape.

Thanks to rising markets and automatic enrollment, retirement balances have climbed to record levels. Vanguard account holders are (apparently) a bit better off than others — their average 401(k) account hit roughly $167,970 in 2025, up about 13% from the year before. Yet...simultaneously, a record 6% of workers took hardship withdrawals from their 401(k)s in 2025, according to Vanguard. That’s up from 4.8% the year before and roughly three times the pre-pandemic average. The median withdrawal was just $1,900, most commonly to avoid eviction, foreclosure, or cover medical expenses.

ETFs are no longer a wrapper around the market. They are the market. Last year, U.S. ETF assets climbed to about $13.5 trillion, after another year of record launches and inflows. Over the past decade, roughly $3 trillion-plus has flowed out of traditional mutual funds — and almost the same amount has moved into ETFs instead. Passive vehicles now account for around 60% of U.S. equity fund assets, a level that would’ve sounded extreme not that long ago.

On Friday, historical data and some technical anomalies suggested the market was due for a potential relief rally after a brutal March, and... here you go. Happy Monday.

After February’s dismal jobs report, which showed the US shed 92,000 jobs, new data from January show that total openings actually increased by 396,000, but it didn’t translate into much actual hiring. The latest JOLTS data shows about 6.9 million openings nationwide, while hiring remained flat at roughly 5.3 million and quits barely moved — a labor market where jobs exist, but fewer people are actually changing them.

February’s inflation data came in as expected (2.4%) last week, but the real data that the Fed was waiting on (PCE) arrived on Friday. Core PCE came in at 3.1%, the highest it’s been in over two years. This divergence from headline CPI does not bode well for potential rate cuts, and the Fed will likely confirm that decision at their meeting tomorrow.

Gen Z is investing instead of buying homes. Home buying used to be the pinnacle of the “American Dream,” but now, it’s more like an afterthought. The share of 25- to 39-year-olds transferring money into investment accounts more than tripled over the past decade, rising to 14.4%, according to JPMorgan Chase Institute data. Among 26-year-olds, that figure jumped from 8% in 2015 to roughly 40% by 2025. And that excludes 401(k)s — this is brokerage money. With Gen Z’s homeownership rate sitting at just 16% and first-time home buyers at an all-time low, it’s not hard to see why. The average $400,000 home now carries a $2,170 monthly mortgage — roughly a third of a median household’s after-tax pay. For many young investors, the market simply feels more attainable than a mortgage. So instead of stretching for a down payment that keeps drifting further away, many young adults are opening brokerage accounts that take five minutes to fund. Housing used to be the default wealth engine. For Gen Z, the market increasingly looks more attainable than a mortgage.

With all of the conflicting signals, good news is starting to feel like a fake-out — but that’s exactly what February’s inflation report delivered. Kind of. After cooling to a 2.4% annual rate in January, February delivered the same: 2.4% year-over-year (YoY) CPI, and Core Inflation again came in at 2.5%, analogous to last month’s print. The real intrigue here is likely to be the Fed's preferred inflation gauge —the Personal Consumption Expenditure index, which comes out on Friday (PCE lags one month, so it’ll be January’s data). Recently, it’s been running hot — PCE came in at 2.9% for December, and most estimates expect the same for January. So, although headline inflation is closer to 2%, the Fed’s preferred metric is now. The Fed’s board of governors will convene again early next week, and they’re not expected to budge on interest rates just yet — oddsmakers currently give a 99% chance of a “no change” outcome yet again.

Last month’s jobs report showed the U.S. labor market unexpectedly adding 130,000 jobs — the highest monthly gain in over a year, mind you, after adding just 181,000 total jobs in the entirety of 2025. Great, a pleasant surprise, we love to see it. But…hold your horses — February just inserted a reality check. The BLS released last month’s job numbers on Friday, and it wasn’t pretty — a net loss of 90,000. Economists were anticipating more like ~50,000 added, so this report missed the mark by orders of magnitude. Unemployment ticked up slightly, back up to 4.4%, and the U.S. economy has now minted a net loss of jobs in three out of the past six months — sweet.

Stocks have traded green and red days like punches this week as investors navigate global ambiguity. Crude oil futures are up 20%+ this week, and gas prices are already rising accordingly. Bond yields have ticked up as buyers worry about inflation again, and subsequently, assume the possibility of "higher for longer" interest rates if so. TL;DR: Things are in limbo — don't get jumpy.