Bittractor

The 60MW to $NVDA from $IREN seems to be in Gross MW’s Why? IREN says they are deploying the NVIDIA Blackwell chips "within 60MW of existing data center capacity."  "Existing Capacity" is code for "Total Grid Power Available in our old buildings." Thus, the NVIDIA deal is almost certainly 60MW Gross. NVIDIA is hiring IREN to run their internal R&D workloads. This requires a massive software/operator layer (Mirantis) which justifies a much higher price per actual "chip-watt” Standard Air-Cooling PUE: ~1.15 to 1.20. That would mean IT load is more like 51MW which equals $13.33M per MW of IT for B300’s (Nvidia) vs the $9.7M per MW of IT for 200MW IT of B300’s (Microsoft) That would be a 37.42% Increase from the Microsoft deal 😱 In the 1-3 pictures attached you can clearly see that they refer to “existing data center capacity” as MW gross. Math: 150MW Gross referred to as 100MW IT in the second slide. 250MW existing capacity is gross because 250MW + 150MW/100MW IT= 400MW Gross left available at Childress Childress is 750MW Gross: 350MW Contracted + 400MW Available = 750MW Childress: 290MW Gross - Microsoft (LC) 60MW Gross - Nvidia (AC) 150MW - Liquid Cooled (LC) 250MW - Air Cooled (AC)

$IREN UPDATE: Looks like IREN sold ~$1B of its $6B ATM at ~$43 a share issuing approximately 24M new shares

How tf is $CIFR 10% up even after missing earnings A whole lotta stuffs not adding up in this markets lol

If Lively/Baldoni can do it … Iran mustn’t be far … As I said this morning: $SOUN $IMSR $SHMD $DGXX $CNTMD … in no particular order …

$CIFR 2026 Price Prediction Revised 🚨 As new information has come out in Q3 and the fundamentals have only gotten stronger, I have the urge to redo my prediction and bring a whole new level of sophistication With this current drawdown as well, $CIFR at $14.36 with a market cap of $5.67 billion has become the most compelling opportunity in the market today So let's begin… Part 1 HPC 🏭~ At $366.7 million in annual revenue over the 15 year term, the $AMZN contract generates approximately $1.22 million per MW annually At $300 million annually in base revenue over the 10-year term, the contract generates approximately $1.79 million per MW Combined, the AWS and Fluidstack contracts represent $8.5 billion in total contracted revenue a figure that exceeds $CIFR entire current market capitalization and provides unprecedented visibility into future cash flows $CIFR unveiled the formation of a joint venture to develop “Colchis,” a 1 gigawatt data center site in West Texas Under the joint venture terms, $CIFR will provide the majority of financing, resulting in approximately 95% equity ownership assuming standard lease and development terms At scale, Colchis represents transformational value creation assuming similar revenue economics to the AWS and Fluidstack deals (approximately $1.50 million per MW annually) Beyond Colchis, $CIFR maintains an extensive development pipeline totaling 3.2 GW of site capacity 300 MW: Allocated to AWS contract 244 MW: Allocated to Fluidstack/Google contract 1,000 MW: Colchis development 1,656 MW: Remaining unallocated capacity for future opportunities Using conservative industry valuations of $10 million per MW for development sites with secured power agreements, a standard benchmark for data center M&A transactions, this pipeline carries an embedded value of approximately $16.6 billion I will do all the math once we go over the next section Part 2 $BTC Mining ⛏️ ~ As of Q3 2025, the company operates at 23.6 EH/s of self-mining hashrate across five industrial-scale data centers, having successfully completed the energization of its flagship Black Pearl Phase I facility The company deployed 114,000 mining rigs by September 2025, with fleet efficiency of 16.8 J/TH, positioning it as one of the most energy efficient miners in North America🇺🇸 As of September 30th $CIFR maintains a strategic Bitcoin treasury position of 1,500 BTC Valued at approximately $171 million at current prices but worth $262 million at the assumed $175,000 $BTC price Which leads to my next point: I will be lowering my $BTC PT from 200 to 175 to make this more “reasonable,” as right now 200k implies over a 100% move, which I think can happen but I wont put my Giga bull bias into this and will keep it at 175k Part 3 Calculation 📚~ MINING OPERATIONS (23.6 EH/s) 📊 Current hashrate: 23.6 EH/s Annual production calculation: Q3 2025 production: 689 $BTC Quarterly baseline × 4 = 689 × 4 = 2,756 BTC Annual production: 2,756 BTC baseline with a potential 2× hashrate boost from efficiency gains: 2,756 BTC × 2 = 5,512 $BTC per year Mining Revenue = 2,756 BTC × $175,000 = $482,300.00 Profit margins: Energy cost ≈ $0.027/kWh Energy cost per $BTC ≈ $17,000 Since energy cost ≈ $17,000/BTC or ~$0.027/kWh Profit margins: 72.5% (industry-leading efficiency) Mining Profit = $482,300,000 × 0.725 = $349,667,500 Mining Business Valuation: $349.7M profit × 8x EBITDA = $2.80 billion HPC 📈 - AWS/ ( $AMZN ) Contract value: $5,500 million over 15 years Annual revenue = $5,500M ÷ 15 = $366.7M Gross Capacity: 300 MW NOI margin = 82.5% Annual NOI = $366.7M × 0.825 = $302.5M profit CapEx: $10M per MW Total CapEx = 300 MW × $10M = $3,000M total investment Implied payback = $3,000M ÷ $302.5M = 9.9 years ROI = 10.1% per MW annually Valuation: 20× EBITDA (contracted HPC premium) = $302.5M × 20 = $6.05 billion HPC 📈 - Fluidstack/ ( $GOOGL ) Contract value: $3,000 million over 10 years Annual revenue = $3,000M ÷ 10 = $300M IT Load Capacity: 168 MW NOI margin = 82.5% Annual NOI = $300M × 0.825 = $247.5M profit CapEx: $10M per MW Total CapEx = 168 MW × $10M = $1,680M total investment Implied payback = $1,680M ÷ $247.5M = 6.8 years ROI = 14.7% per MW annually Valuation: 20× EBITDA (contracted HPC premium) = $247.5M × 20 = $4.95 billion TOTAL HPC (Contracted): Annual Revenue: $666.7M Annual NOI: $550.0M Total Valuation: $11.00B A 20x EBITDA multiple is well supported and likely conservative for $CIFR contracted hyperscale/AI hosting platform, given the premium paid for long-term, investment-grade, and mission-critical data center deals in the current market environment Colchis Development (1,000 MW) 🏗️ Capacity: 1,000 MW Ownership: 95% (JV structure) Additional capacity: 1,000 MW (in addition to the 468 MW) Revenue per MW (avg of deals): Fluidstack: $300M ÷ 168 MW = $1.79M/MW AWS: $366.7M ÷ 300 MW = $1.22M/MW Average: $1.50M per MW Annual revenue per MW: $1.50M Colchis revenue = 1,000 MW × $1.50M × 0.95 = $1,428.8M Annual NOI per MW: $1.24M Colchis NOI = $1,428.8M × 0.825 = $1,178.7M Total additional revenue: $1,428.8 million per year Total CapEx required: 1,000 MW × $10M = $10,000M = $10.0 billion Valuation multiple: 14× (development discount from 20×) Note: 30% discount for development risk and 2028 timeline Undiscounted value = $1,178.7M × 14 = $16,502M = $16.50 billion Present Value Calculation: Energization: 2028 (2.5 years) Discount rate: 10% Discount factor = 1 ÷ (1.10)^2.5 = 0.7880 PV = $16.50B × 0.7880 = $13.00 billion 1,000 MW × $1.50M/MW × 95% ownership × 82.5% margin × 14x multiple × 0.788 discount = $13.0B Just thought I would put the equation up there, as this was the hardest part to calculate Additional Pipeline (1,656 MW) 🚀 Total development pipeline: 3,200 MW = 3.2 GW Allocated: Remaining unallocated: 3,200 - 1,544 = 1,656 MW Pipeline valuation: $10M per MW (development site value) Industry standard for sites with secured power Total pipeline value = 1,656 MW × $10M = $16,560M = $16.56 billion Probability adjustment for development pipeline: Base case applies 70% probability to reflect: -Site development risks -Tenant leasing uncertainty -Longer time horizon Probability-adjusted value: $16,560M × 70% = $11,592M = $11.59 billion Treasury $BTC in holding 💰 Holding: 1,500 $BTC Price assumption: $175,000 per $BTC Treasury value = 1,500 BTC × $175,000 = $262,500,000 = $262 million TOTAL ENTERPRISE VALUE (Sum of All Parts): Mining Business: $2.80B HPC Contracted (AWS+FLS): $11.00B Colchis Development (PV): $13.00B Additional Pipeline (70%): $11.59B Bitcoin Treasury: $0.26B TOTAL EV = $2.80B + $11.00B + $13.00B + $11.59B + $0.26B = $38.65 billion Adjustments: Convertible Notes Outstanding: $1,300M Terms: 0.00% interest, due 2031 Conversion price: ~$16.03 Capped call protection at $23.32 Effective net debt treatment: $1,300M × 50% = $650M (Conservative: treat as 50% debt / 50% equity equivalent) Enterprise Value: $38,654.84M Less: Net Debt: -$650M Equity Value: $38,004.84M = $38.00 billion Basic shares outstanding: 395 million Dilution from convertible notes: Potential new shares: $1,300M ÷ $16.03 = 81.1M shares Less: Capped call reduction (~40%): -32.4M Net dilution: 48.7M shares Fully diluted shares = 395M + 48.7M = 444 million shares VALUATION PER SHARE: Equity Value ÷ Shares = $38,004.84M ÷ 444M = $85.66 per share (UNRISKED) Risk Adjustment: Probability weighting for execution and market variables: 75% Risk factors considered: -Colchis development execution (2028 timeline) -ERCOT interconnection approval -Tenant leasing for remaining pipeline - $BTC price realization -Energy market dynamics -General market conditions Risk-adjusted calculation: $85.66 × 0.75 = $64.25 per share As you can see that is some serious upside... we are CRIMINALLY priced right now The future has never been brighter; if price action and drawdowns scare you, do more research and reassess your conviction Let me know what you think about this calc and prediction! thank you so much if you got this far :)