Juan M. Sánchez

In 2025 I’ve written my first paper where rational expectations are not the only benchmark. Instead, we incorporate rational learning and estimate diagnostic expectations using the Survey of Consumer Expectations. My coauthor/student Stefan Song first brought diagnostic expectations to my attention. I thought they could be helpful to understand how households struggle with credit card debt. Key takeaway: these expectations account for roughly half of delinquencies and one-third of bankruptcies. Paper: ideas.repec.org/p/fip/fedlwp/1… #econtwitter #credit #delinquency #bankruptcy

We currently have four open roles on the team: - Research Engineer (job-boards.greenhouse.io/anthropic/jobs…) - Research Economist (job-boards.greenhouse.io/anthropic/jobs…) - Transformative AI Research Economist (job-boards.greenhouse.io/anthropic/jobs…) - Research Operations (job-boards.greenhouse.io/anthropic/jobs…) 6/6

We finish fourth in the league phase 👊

Below Brighton and Bournemouth in the premier league. Above Real Madrid and Barcelona in the Champions League. Tottenham Hotspur ladies and gentlemen

@stlCITYsc @TampaBayRowdies That is Alex Jundt next to Löwen, right?

All smiles because we play tomorrow 🙂‍↕️ 🆚 @TampaBayRowdies 🗓️ Wed, Jan. 28. 🕙 10:00AM CT ℹ️ Follow our channels for updates.

Departing from rational expectations sharply reduces the impatience needed to match credit card default. Thus, diagnostic expectations—estimated directly from expectations data—substitute for the extreme impatience common in default models.

This is my favorite figure. Consumption as a function of income under diagnostic expectations and rational learning when households can’t tell whether income shocks are permanent or transitory.

In 2025 I’ve written my first paper where rational expectations are not the only benchmark. Instead, we incorporate rational learning and estimate diagnostic expectations using the Survey of Consumer Expectations. My coauthor/student Stefan Song first brought diagnostic expectations to my attention. I thought they could be helpful to understand how households struggle with credit card debt. Key takeaway: these expectations account for roughly half of delinquencies and one-third of bankruptcies. Paper: ideas.repec.org/p/fip/fedlwp/1… #econtwitter #credit #delinquency #bankruptcy

@IaVardishvili @MLSNEXT @SLSGSoccerClub The sunset was beautiful

@vediense @MLSNEXT @SLSGSoccerClub oh, wow, so beautiful.

Proud dad moment: Took my son Jose to Phoenix for MLS NEXT Fest ⚽️ Spent the day working with the great economists & students at ASU, then cheered him on the field. The next day, he took the SAT there at ASU while I worked in the library. Proof you CAN balance elite sports & academics 💪📚 Watch his 30-sec highlights! #MLSNext #YouthSoccer #StudentAthlete #SoccerDad

@MLSNEXT @SLSGSoccerClub

By the way, the @MLSNEXT Fest in Phoenix was fantastic—lots of St. Louis families, strong competition, and real college coach presence. @SLSGSoccerClub had four teams at each age group.

Nothing better than seeing your work presented by younger coauthors like Miguel and Pascal. We are hoping to have the first draft ready very soon. Stay tuned!

Incredible season for @LadueSoccer: 2024 Class 3 State Champions. 2025 Moved up to Class 4 → Finished #3 in the state ranking. Proud of these Rams! 🐏⚽️💪