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We are in the end game now:
> The US–Iran war has caused the largest oil and LNG supply shock in modern history.
> Japan, South Korea, China, India are now critically short of energy.
> Russia offering to supply oil and LNG using CNY or RUB
> End of petro$, beginning of petrogold
> At the same time, the US government’s own True Interest Expense (TIE) has already reached 130% of tax receipts in February 2026 alone
> This is before adding the new $200+ billion Pentagon supplemental request for the war, Trump’s floated $1.5 trillion military budget, lost tariff revenue, or any recession.
> Every 100 basis point rise in 10-year Treasury yields adds tens of billions in annual interest expense on the ~$40 trillion debt stock.
> Yields have already risen ~40 bps in just three weeks since the war began.
> Higher oil prices are feeding directly into inflation (freight, food, consumer goods).
> By April the higher costs will be fully embedded in the economy regardless of any ceasefire.
> CPI prints spike, killing rate-cut hopes and forcing the Fed to print money to cap yields into the oil spike
> On top of this, agentic AI is accelerating job displacement at an exponential rate
> Companies facing margin pressure from higher energy costs are turning to AI as a survival tool
> compounding unemployment faster
> Private credit is already cracking (redemptions surging, banks restricting leverage, mark-downs accelerating)
> Leverage across hedge funds and the system is at multi-year highs.
> Foreign central banks and sovereigns are trading US Treasuries for physical gold at record pace
> de-dollarization
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