Vivek Iyer

Why Iran's Hormuz toll proposal isn't bluster Hormuz carries 21 mb/d of oil and LNG Total bypass capacity: ~5–6 mb/d The remaining ~15 mb/d has nowhere to go That gap is the leverage

India’s IT sector is saturated with AI narrative. But when we studied what companies are actually doing — talent, delivery models, productivity, and economics — a very different picture emerged. The next winners in Indian IT are not where most investors are looking 🧵👇

Unless you can get the exceptional stock with phenomenal growth at 1 PE

@persistencecap This assumes a reasonably diversified portfolio of 15-20 stocks.

Naturally some stocks will be multibaggers a few years out. My point is that the base rate of success for picking those is much lower today when the bulk of rerating is already done for the broad market. Small and micro caps got rerated because they went from 0 percent roe in 2018 to 12 percent today. I doubt that’s going to repeat.

Rare miss by an otherwise astute commentator. NIFTY Smallcap 100 Price to book at 2018 peak was 2x and 2025 trough is 4x. Base rates of success in picking multibaggers are going to be far lower in the next 5 years

@ActusDei 20 percent TCS on LRS is a formidable hurdle

Ideas like Turkey Index Fund, why aren't these discussed more by AMCs? I hope GIFT City will change this India-only narrative.

It’s a phase. In a few years, if the current massive capital expenditure in AI starts to look foolish, these buybacks will be viewed as savvy capital allocation decisions. The aggregate global capital expenditure in AI increasingly resembles a black hole, and much of it is poised to deliver subpar returns, if any at all. Identifying which projects will emerge as spectacular successes amid such a rapidly shifting landscape is akin to searching for a needle in a haystack. In stark contrast, buybacks provide much greater certainty in outcomes compared to investing in an unpredictable industry rife with swift changes and fierce competition. If investors are dissatisfied with the company’s capital allocation decisions regarding buybacks and would prefer that funds be channeled into AI investments, they always have the option to sell their shares on the market or in the buyback offer. They can then use the proceeds to invest in companies that are indeed focusing on AI. There’s nothing preventing them from doing that.

@bhavesh531 @ActusDei Hi Bhavesh, the top 5 names in our portfolio trade at 2.6 x FCF on a 1 year fwd basis assuming gold at USD 3500 per ounce. We cannot share the exact names due to confidentiality

@ActusDei Have you checked and confirm if the price to free cashflow is less than 3; I read an article and it seems it’s P/FCF is more than 30, even if we assume it’s FCF triple in next 1 year.

A tiny AIF in GIFT city is betting big on gold miners. Their stocks have already rallied but the AIF sees further scope. The only other alternative, DSP World Gold Fund is not accepting flows due to RBI limit. It has rallied almost 84% in the past yr. thefynprint.com/iKUu-W-jy Clarification: 7k not 70k by 2030

RT @ActusDei: A tiny AIF in GIFT city is betting big on gold miners. Their stocks have already rallied but the AIF sees further scope. The…

@soicfinance Optically high would be if price to book and return on equity was depressed like in 2018-2019. 30 + PE at 12.5 percent ROE is very high - unless this time is different :)

A really good view on optically high looking small cap index PE ratio.. One can find ideas bottoms up which are showing 20%+ PAT growth with PE that is much lesser than the index

Update Gold 3 month - 2.3 percent GDX 3 month - 20.5 percent

An entire market gets re-rated. 3.5x price to book used to mark euphoric tops for the last two decades. Since 2020, it has become the floor rather than the ceiling for valuations. I doubt investors will ever experience such a re rating ever again.

@WeekendInvestng Does anyone actually “deposit” the electricity bill anymore ?

The Gen-Z quote that "I run a family office" may mean 1. I have no job or work or skill to pursue anything. 2. I am spending generational wealth of my parents 3. I cannot be held responsible for any activity 4. If I screw up , it was the markets or the advisor 5. In reality I get up at noon and spend the day watching business channels and learn what to talk about markets at parties 6. The most productive thing i did today was to deposit the electricity bill. 😂😂😂😂😂

Gold return 3 year- 50 percent 1 year - 49 percent 3 month - 17 percent Gold miners (GDX) 3 year - 18 percent 1 year - 49 percent 3 month - 37 percent This is the phase in the gold bull run that miners go vertical and outperform gold

@vivekgujrati This was the first ever listed US gold ETF so data only goes back to 2004

@viv423 U need to check last 100 years data to understand this.. Also historically central banks were not so aggressive buyers for Gold which we have seen since 2021

Gold usually forms a long term top when the holdings of the world’s largest ETF cross 1300 tonnes. We are currently at 900 tonnes. It has just begun

@safiranand Admitting mistakes only works when one becomes successful in spite of them as this fund manager is finding out

My book on mistakes has inspired a fund manager who wasn’t in the book to come out and admit mistakes. I’m honored 🤣

@InvesysCapital Q4 results to be underwhelming?

Going by past precedent the lows made in #Mar25 on Indices should not by broken for 12 weeks at least , that is till May25 End Let's see what's on market's mind this time.

I’ve invested in large caps and I’ve invested in small caps and I recommend buying bitcoin 15 years ago