VON HALE

@astocks92 Yes /ES has the 1256 tax advantage. All futures do.

#TTP: Stick save Friday or doomsday? $570 $645 x.com/i/spaces/1wxWj…

@TheJokerTradess Hey Joker will this be recorded? Thanks in advance.

@VolSignals 🙏🏼

@vonhale this is excellent, glad to hear - will certainly try to adapt this style going forward every now and then to make sure you guys are mastering the nuts and bolts

SPX DEALER GAMMA [How to understand it and use it in your trading] Last week, average dealer gamma was +$7.9bn, according to Bank of America Let's break down what this means, bring the number down to earth- and explore how to use it in your own trading approach >>

@astocks92 Hey AJ. Will this be recorded? Having a holiday dinner with the fam but don't want to miss this one.

@astocks92 Looking forward to it!

Spread trading space tomorrow 4:30 EST. Holding it for the subs. Come join and learn basics to advanced strategies!

@astocks92 YES!!!

Anyone interested in seeing #FLOW grabs from FRIDAY?

@OptsMillionaire They must be losing money and or traders must be taking lots of payouts. They constantly shift the rules against the traders. I execute with jigsaw so when they moved to topstepx only is when I moved on.

Topstep adding this to their terms. 5 days for each payout $5k payout cap Now this. These rules are not trader friendly.

@trentkelp @YouTube I use Spot Gamma. I should put these in the pill when you’re running your spaces. It’s invaluable.

Options Flows After the Crash youtube.com/live/_ypqb_7qb… via @YouTube

@astocks92 Yes please continue. I picked up some real gems from you today. Cheers

Much love ❤️ to the 400+ constantly tuned into the spaces all day, ~300 near close. I like to run these more. Should I? Did you guys find the alpha useful, and insightful? thank you to new ones who joined! Heart ❤️ and comment if you want.

@outlieroptions This sounds amazing. I would very much like to be a part of this. Cheers

5pm PT tomorrow is one of the monthly pro plus zoom workshops. these are opportunities to work alongside other traders in a close knit space led by myself. we're focusing on planning for 2026 - creating trading objectives and reverse planning on the general approach to achieve them. if you're at a point where this kind of session would be really useful to you, please comment below and I will select for a guest seat at the workshop.

@Bigkev451 Man that hits hard. Brutal truth.

Your boss will never pay you enough to be his neighbor....🤫 Read that again 😵

@astocks92 Yes please!

$HIMS $PLTR $UBER $SPOT $U $SMCI FIRST set of #EARNINGS next week. Want a detail breakdown in 🧵 with positional analysis and what to watch for and S1/R1 and T1 🎯? Chat 💬 decides.

@outlieroptions Great post. I've noticed the same.

I spend a lot of time reading, I find myself generally interested in a lot of things. Something that I find fascinating is the breadth of successful traders. I personally know some that are average intelligence doing simple things that they don’t fully understand why they occur. But they trade the patterns they see and it works. Then there are traders that are incredibly smart, closer to the quant world. They might model the volatility surface, then calibrate it to market data via nonlinear least squares to extract implied parameters like long-run variance or vol-of-vol. They can decompose an option’s price into vega, volga, and vanna components, simulate the path-dependent PnL distribution under different volatility regimes, and compute expected PnL as an integral over joint distributions of spot and implied vol. Both can also do very poorly. Trading requires finding the balance between understanding and practical application.

@realFatCat1 @QendrimSh06 Excellent post! I started my tradecraft journey this weekend. Looking forward to getting the most out of it. Thanks

@QendrimSh06 This video which is a bit older gives a run down: youtube.com/watch?v=8-okPw… Ill be making more content, like a tag series to give traders ideas of what tags to use. Also this wednesday Ill live stream going through stats as it's been requested by someone else.

Here's this weeks session: I want to talk about holds vs scalps, since this week had two larger holds. Obviously one being a fucking behemoth. I've struggled with an identity crisis for years and years and years. Trading buddies in the early years would always ask "how did you do?" and I always said "Fine if I just stuck to scalping" However getting the taste of holding is like heroin or some shit. Not that I ever done that. However I see how addictive it can be. When you get a good read on the market, get into a hold that just works based off your narrative. You didn't guess, but you analyzed and had so many confirming factors of support, it's something I can't describe. All I know is I want to keep doing that. After all most of us are men and a big trade is like a dick measuring contest. Something about it feeds the ego, whether you want to admit it or not. Holding a trade is fucking hard. It is one of the fucking hardest things I've ever dealt with. Lets look in the tradecraft.club dashboard and compare holds vs scalps. AKA Aggressive vs Conservative: Pink is the holds or aggressive trades. They can be point 2 points which are not holds not scalps. Or they can be scalps held too long. Either way they fall in here. Blue is the conservative trading or pure scalps. Blue has a sample size of 503 Pink has a sample size of 391 Since using tradecraft.club back in November 5th 2024 I have a total of 943 trades. Notice how smooth conservative scalping is on the equity curve. The pink line is very erratic. While there are times it leads the conservative trading, at this point there's a 27k difference. It would be larger if I didn't hit 15K on a hold this week. Scalping is less psychological. Its easier to predict the next few seconds over the next few minutes, let alone fucking hours. The issue with holds, is the EV shifts. I'm pretty in tune with price action. It talks to me. The issue is when the price action goofs around and causes drastic shifting where I know a trade can fail. However in the hold you have to account for the unexpected. Sure you have to do that for a scalp and usually it's a simple cut. However on a hold those can shake you out. Pushing a hold requires sitting in some harry situations, at least from a scalpers perspective. After all you must let the trade breath on a hold. There's no getting around that. That breathing may require some oh shit moments. ----- I want to shift to something else. Most traders. Actually virtually none of you know proper analysis on tags. Part of building tradecraft.club was to use it as a teaching tool. I believe in the power of data. Look at baseball. You ever seen money ball? They run stats on players and poached undervalued ball players. Look at the book MVP machine. They talk about how they cultivate talent through stats. Why the fuck is this not being used in trading!? It is but it's not talked about enough.. Either way I'm here to hopefully leave my mark in trading, and make this more popular. One would look at my equity curve and they don't dig any further. However through the power of tags, and tradecraft.club rich filtering abilities - by the way I do know I post the URL a ton - Trying to rank in google okay. Yes I have interest in selling more Trade Craft. However I believe it can alter a trader course substantially as you'll see below: I cloned the equity curve with our clone feature. Then I ran a filter on each one. The first window - #1- is impulsive bad trades. The actual filter in this case is our rating system. I use the red star for impulsive or just pure shit trades. When I have psychological issues this is what happens. Naturally I'm more aggressive. Part of this could be revenge trading. Something we could filter down more with a special tag combo I have on contentment. Sample size is: Blue 43 Pink 91 Next -#2- is yellow star filter. This will be a management issue filter. Yellow star means either we are too early, too late on entry or exit. Maybe both? What this is showing us is holds are by far trickier to manage. Even when they are a solid idea. After all a yellow star filter doesn't mean it's a bad trade. It just had some management adjustment needed. We could further filter this down to see what has effected it? I could run filters with the entry tags and exit tags. Now notice that the pink jumps. That's the 15K trade. If that wasn't there the pink line would me much lower. That trade is an outlier. I do have outlier tags. I could filter that pink line out to see how that effects it on average win loss PNL. Big wins and big losses absolutely skews results that's why an outlier tag is necessary. Sample size is: Blue 152 Pink 190 Next we have window 3. This is a green star filter. Basically perfect management. And what do you know aggressive out performs conservative. However trading is hard. Getting perfect management all the time is virtually impossible. I can strive for it. Sample size is: Blue 303 Pink 106 Lets now look at all three sample sizes side by side. Blue has the highest sample size on green and is almost 2x the sample size from yellow. It's 7x bigger on green vs red. What this tells me is it is easier to nail perfect management on a scalp, because as time and distance increase more random EV is drastically introduced. It simply is easier to finesse scalping than a hold. The pink aggressive trades have the highest sample rate yellow star vs green star so 190 vs 106. Obviously this is to be expected since holds introduce more randomness over time and distance. So trying to nail a good hold without management issues becomes more difficult. Between red star and yellow star it's 2x bigger on sample size. Chart #4 is when all emotions are good and and I have pure clarity. There are no red star impulsive trades, just yellow and green. Notice how aggressive trading and conservative trading are fucking equal! Pink PNL: 172,752.52 - 164 Sample size Blue PNL: 177,786.02 - 347 Sample size 2x more scalps than holds. I did mention further filtering so lets do that now: Window 1 and 2 are aggressive master filters on top of other tags. So all tags will need to have aggressive attached to them on the trade. Window 3 and 4 are conservative mater filters on top of other tags. So all tags will need to have conservative attached to them on the trade. Window 1 and 3 are management tags. Window 2 and 4 are psychological tags. Lets look at entries aggressive vs conservative first. Perfect entry sample size: Pink: 62 Blue: 107 The PNL is higher on pink which is to be expected as they are bigger trades so that information is a bit useless for us. However I'm just cracking out better entries on scalps. Which does make sense. After all a scalp requires me to nail the better entry. So I feel I'm a bit sloppier with hold entries. Because it's a hold and I know I need to let the trade breath thus I can hit in a bit sloppy. But that's not necessarily okay. Next lets look at entry early: Pink: 30 Blue: 11 Okay now we are starting to see that when I have entry problems out of the total of 94 entry tags attached to the aggressive tag - 1/3 of them are too early. I'm simply getting in too fucking early on one third of my holds. So this means I need to wait for more fucking confirmation. Now we're on to something!! You may also be wondering why do I have 391 aggressive tags but only 121 entry tags on those? Seems like 270 tags are missing entry tags? There's a simple answer to this. This tag set is newer. I can't add more photos here as Im at my max. However on the equity curve widget I can filter by "date" add aggressive tag and all the entry tag on the series row. I can now see Nov 5 is when the aggressive tag was created. April 21st is when my entry and exit tags were created. So I could filter from that point forward but then my overall sample rate on aggressive goes down substantially. We're getting partial data here with a later tag set. I had at one point used a different entry exit tag to measure things but they we're too broad I needed to narrow them down more to a more specific combo. So I retired those older tags. I'm sure we could dust them off to investigate further. Anyways we have an idea of whats going on with partial data. However this is why it's important to maintain consistent tags for as long as possible. Sample size is fucking crucial. A trade untagged is a waste of data. Sure you see PNL but that needs to be filtered down like we're doing now to see the why behind it all. Hopefully this is clicking for one of you and you get hit with lightning and have a massive realization. This is how you get better at trading and it fucking works. You must become good at analyzing your trading data. Now if we look at the late entry sample size it's Pink: 2 Blue: 5 This doesn't tell us shit. Either way We can see late entries don't seem to be too much of an issue. Obviously this number would be much larger if I had tagged from Nov 5 as 1/3 of these entry exit tags actually cover the higher sample rate of the conservative aggress tags. Oh well... Finally Entry Should of not happened: Pink: 27 Blue: 21 This is interesting because red star trades are higher on aggressive. Which means impulsive or bad trades. However the entry should of not happened tag is impulsive as well. Seems I have an equal amount. There might be something deeper here we would filter. You can see how this shit just keeps rabbit holing. But it's important to spend the time doing this. At tradecraft.club we do plan on making the process faster. We're always building and refining the platform and since this is my product, I fucking use it every session, and I use virtually every feature. So I know from heavy use where the work flow gets all bogged down, and I want things to be faster. I think a lot of journals are built by coders who have interest in trading but don't actually use the journals to their full extent, nor obsess over stats. Because they just fucking suck, compared to tradecraft.club I had this built because other solutions would not cut it, and I got denied sierra charts uploads to a specific journal I wanted to use. So fuck em. Ill do it myself. This is how this project became. Plus their tagging was shit. You can't filter the way you can with us. Lets move on. Exits. Perfect exit: Pink: 55 Blue: 104 This confirms, that holding is a bitch. Obviously with a scalp it's just easier to grease the entry and exit. I've already explained why. Next Hold More Pink: 43 Blue: 101 This is fucking shocking actually. We can push more. I can't post more fucking photos here but on an equity curve for all the exit tags. The hold more and perfect exit tags almost shadow each other as they go up. They run parallel. This shows that I do nail a lot of good exits but I also have a lot of times where I should just push a bit more. This applies to scalps and holds. Now the problem is what is the overall fucking volatility? This can really give us some insight. Here's something I noticed. When VIX spiked in March to April to 50 or whatever. You know liberation day? Will my hold more tags started to go up. My hold more tag and held 2 long tag were created Dec 9th so these specific exit tags have way more sample size than the entry tags. Unfortunately perfect exit tag is from April 21st so this fucking skews shit. Anyways when VIX was high I could of pushed more. When it dropped my tags started to cycle into held 2 long. So volatility messes with these tags and that's why exits can be adjusted based off volatility. Now in tradecraft.club I have a histogram for every month. One side is for held 2 long the other for hold more. March and april my hold more tags spiked. The held 2 long tag dumped and march was the lowest volume month for this tag. Then in April it spiked again. Obviously the volatility pulled in quick. We could use a calendar widget to figure out which week in April The held 2 long spiked. --- Looking at the calendar widget we can see - again I can't post photos here I'm maxed. March 24 - April 4 my hold more tags spiked and there was no held 2 long tags. When you look at a VIX weekly chart you can see it rising in the week period I just shared. We now now volatility absolutely dictates holds in the tags. This just fucking proves my theory on all that stuff. What I would need to do is devlop a new tag set that measures volatility and I could possible refine my exits better. I hope you're seeing how this works! This is how you get good at trading!!!! I know some of you think I'm just trying to push tradecraft.club but I fucking believe in this product. There's too many of you who don't know how to do this work. It's my job to show you how. Nobody else is creating this content and tags are what got me good to begin with. You got to Billy Bean that shit like money ball. Some of you have potential. Just like MVP machine. You may give up on trading but had you got good at stats you may have actually lived your dream. For example Bryan Joseph Woo is a solid pitcher. However his stats didn't seem impressive and a decade ago he may have never got drafted. However some scouts watched his footage, like you should with your recordings, at tradecraft.club we make it easy to upload a recording and it time stamps it for you. No scrubbing though footage. The scouts noticed he had a deceptive pitch when it left his hand. He had this consistent release where as the ball could be a slider, curve or whatever. The release had consistency. Other pitchers might have a change up in the release for different throws. Noticing this in combination with his stats and history, scouts knew he could be cultivated. When he was drafted he was highly undervalued and should be making a lot more than what his contract says. This is you guys. Through your stats and recordings, you have un-tapped potential. This is why I'm making a prop firm and working exclusively with Chronik for the most part. This is my trader. He has potential and I'm trying to Billy Bean him into success. I know that if it wasn't for me - which he confirmed by the way - he would have given up. But just maybe. Just maybe he's the Bryan Woo of trading? His statistics are a different story which I've covered in other posts. However we know what direction he needs to go in.

@jestertrading33 I would like to know more about this. Currently trying to piece this technique together from online videos. I Look forward to your write up.

Scratching trades (when scalping) before your stop is hit when it stalls out against you is a great tactic. What Lewis said below was a game changer for me. When you are scalping it's not just about setting a tight stop and letting the trade either hit your stop or target. One of the best ways to increase your edge when scalping is to scratch the trade when momentum stalls out against you on the micro level. You can see this very well on tick charts and the DOM (and 10sec charts). You don't want to be sitting in a trade all day while it chops around just to exit for a few ticks profit. I need to talk about this more in the future and give examples.

@FuturesTrader71 What a surprise to get another Trader Bite this morning. Can’t believe it’s been 14 months. One thing for sure, it hits way differently after taking the accelerator program. I look forward to more of these. Thanks

Is anyone up for a #TraderBite live broadcast this morning? Getting back into the groove of it. Nothing as regular as before, but it is a chance to pop in and talk #futures #trading in the morning. Are you in? youtube.com/live/eGtG8t_VV… #ES_F #CL_F