Mister Shark
5.7K posts
@vx_shark
Narrative driven crypto investor with a deep focus on macro economics. Follow me only if you want to be top 1 % investor.
@vx_shark u think gold and btc could both send?
Charlie Munger: "One of my favorite tricks is the inversion process." "If somebody hired me to fix India, I would immediately say, 'What could I do if I really wanted to hurt India?' I'd figure out all the things that could most easily hurt India — and then I'd figure out how to avoid them." "It works better frequently to invert the problem."
Let this sink in: WOMEN outnumber MEN in the workforce What’s the cost? -fewer stable marriages -more children in daycare -more anxiety/depression among women -declining birth rate -work, not home, as central to life -weaker care economy What else am I missing?
Main street maxis dreaming of 2022 and a traditional recession while not understanding those are NOW replaced by blackswann credit events. Which leads to unlimited Fed QE thus driving capital towards "unproductive" assets like $BTC making k shape economy worse. Welcome 2020.
Wars, credit events, blackswann (like covid) really helps $BTC thrive. These events shorten the business cycle, compresses recessions and gives rise to bond market volatility. Focus shifts from interest rates to balance sheet and money rather than flowing to economy goes to $BTC
ALL roads lead to unlimited Fed QE. Exponentially greater than covid crisis.
Jerome Powell's term as Fed chair ends May 15th. Kevin Warsh takes over, assuming Sen. Tillis stops blocking the confirmation over the DOJ probe into Powell. If Warsh isn't confirmed in time, Powell serves until he is. Here's why this matters for crypto specifically. Powell held rates at 3.5-3.75% last week, 11-1. Dot plot signals one cut in 2026, one in 2027. No printing yet but Powell has spent two years threading the needle between inflation and growth with no room for error. His entire posture has been patience. Warsh's posture is different. He's publicly backed rate cuts. His nomination was Trump's answer to months of pressure on the Fed to move faster. The market consensus is that Warsh leans more dovish in the near term, whatever his historical record as an inflation hawk says. The earliest Warsh could chair an FOMC meeting is June 16th. That's the first meeting after the May transition. If the confirmation clears in time, the June meeting becomes the first real read on whether the rate narrative shifts. Now here's the part most people aren't talking about. As has been mentioned by giga-chad @rektdiomedes, a massive amount of liquidity is currently locked up in housing. Homeowners sitting on mortgages have zero incentive to refinance at current rates, and therefore no reason to release that capital into other asset classes. The moment rates start dropping meaningfully, millions of homeowners can refinance, unlock equity, and redeploy it. That capital has to go somewhere aka our bags. This is what happened during Covid. The government printing narrative got all the attention, but a huge driver of market performance was actually the refinancing wave that released trapped housing equity into the broader economy. Stocks pumped. Crypto pumped harder. Issa pattern worth paying attention to. Lower rates don't just mean cheaper borrowing. They unlock a reservoir of capital that's been sitting frozen in real estate for years. Crypto is the highest beta risk asset in existence. Do the math.
