illya

Serious question for macro traders: With industrial production safe but credit card delinquencies rising, are we underestimating consumer strain? My recession tracker shows mixed signals. What are your thoughts on how this plays out for markets?

By the time unemployment spikes, the recession has often already started months ago. Leading indicators like the yield curve and PMI signal shifts before they happen, while lagging indicators like GDP and unemployment confirm what’s already transpired. I built recessionpulse.c...

My screener just flagged some interesting names today. $ARCC is trading at a P/E of 9.96 with an RSI of 56.5, suggesting it's fairly valued. $AIG looks attractive too with a P/E of 8.77 and an RSI of 53.8. But $BBY stands out as oversold with a P/E of 8.37 and an RSI of 39.2. ...

Serious question for macro traders: With the SAFE indicators pointing to stability, why is everyone fixating on the yield curve? My recession tracker shows other warning signs like building permits and credit card delinquencies deserve more attention. What do you think?

A stock market correction is NOT a recession. A correction is a 10-20% drop in stock prices, often driven by market sentiment. In contrast, a recession is defined by two consecutive quarters of GDP decline. Understanding this difference is crucial for your investment strategy....

Serious question for macro traders: With the current mixed signals in industrial production and employment metrics, how do you factor in the JOLTS quits rate? Is it a leading indicator or just noise in this environment? I track these daily. Let's discuss.

A surging DXY (Dollar Index) sounds great, but it often crushes corporate earnings. A strong dollar makes U.S. exports pricier and reduces profits for multinationals. Plus, emerging markets feel the heat as debt becomes more expensive. It’s a sign of global stress. I built rec...

Current recession indicators show most are on watch, but the Sahm Rule is holding strong at safe. People often overlook the nuances in these metrics. What do you think will be the tipping point for a shift? Let's unpack this.

Here's something most people get wrong about M2 money supply: it just contracted for the first time since the Great Depression. This is rare and dangerous. A declining M2 signals less money circulating, which can lead to deflation as the velocity of money drops. Last time? The...

Serious question for macro traders: With the SAFE Industrial Production Index holding steady, why is there so much fear around labor metrics like the JOLTS Quits Rate? My recession tracker shows mixed signals. What’s your take on this disconnect?

The Fed's Overnight Reverse Repo (ON RRP) facility dropped from $2.5T to near zero, signaling potential liquidity issues. This facility allows banks to park cash overnight, ensuring short-term stability. When liquidity shrinks, it can lead to tighter credit conditions and mark...

Serious question for macro traders: With the SAFE Industrial Production Index holding steady and the JOLTS Quits Rate under scrutiny, how are you positioning your portfolios? Are you relying on traditional indicators or looking for new signals?

Here's something most people get wrong about the ISM Manufacturing PMI: when it dips below 50, it signals contraction in manufacturing. This matters because manufacturing drives jobs, spending, and investment. A downturn can ripple through the economy, impacting everyone. I bu...

Serious question for macro traders: With the current indicators showing mixed signals—especially the WATCH status on JOLTS Quits Rate and Manufacturing Employment—how are you adjusting your trading strategies? My recession tracker has me paying close attention.

Serious question for macro traders: With the JOLTS quits rate and manufacturing employment both on watch, what do you think the market's reaction will be if we see a reversal in these indicators? Are we truly ready for a shift? Let's discuss.

Here's something most people get wrong about the Leading Economic Index (LEI): it follows the '3Ds' rule—duration, depth, and diffusion. Right now, it's flashing warning signs. With 10 components, including jobless claims and new orders, it’s a top predictor of recessions. I...

My recession tracker shows mixed signals: Industrial Production is safe, but I'm watching the JOLTS Quits Rate closely. Many overlook this indicator's predictive power. What do you think? Are we underestimating the job market's fragility?

Every recession in the last 50 years was preceded by a yield curve inversion. The 2s10s spread—difference between 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields—matters because banks rely on it for lending. When it inverts, it signals a slowdown, typically 12-18 months out. I built recess...

My recession tracker shows mixed signals. While Industrial Production is safe, the JOLTS Quits Rate and Manufacturing Employment are flashing warnings. Real Personal Income is also a key watch. What’s your take on the labor market resilience?

Here's something most people get wrong about the Sahm Rule: it has predicted every US recession since 1970, including those the Fed missed. It triggers when the 3-month average unemployment rate rises by 0.5% from its low. This simple metric has a perfect track record. I built...