wconfidence

@Gold_Cryptoz $bch thesis invalidated?

Can’t think of a single bullish case right now. Actually that’s a lie. A complete 180 from Trump would be the trade of the month. However this isn’t my base case and I believe that’s becoming increasingly low likelihood as time goes on. Trump had stayed consistent with his rhetoric: contemplation of sending ground troops and people close to him saying this could likely last til September. On top of this we have oil at $110 and stocks coming off. People talking about BTC relative strength, that’s all well and good, but we also had our 10/10 moment which wiped many players off the board. Don’t think for a moment that if what we see stays consistent that we will miraculously shoot to the moon. These are difficult conditions and nobody is forcing you to trade them. Seriously, go outside and smell the fresh air. You will intrinsically know when things shift. For me the only way I would be an active player again would be a complete 180 from trump as mentioned earlier. DIRECTLY from him. We have seen many moments during the last week of news breaking of ‘talks’ ‘a want to end the war’ only to be told that was a lie an hour later by the opposition. And, market also sees that as a lie.

@Gold_Cryptoz I think longing here still valid, doesn't it?

That’s me done, I was willing to give back a small portion of monthly profits on this. It’s been absolutely fantastic start to the month, and now my win streak has come to an end Good luck out there

I relonged $BTC here Alt positions: $PEPE + $BONK. Both of these down 20% from the highs after a spectacular run up. We got the pullback to $90k, and currently holding $91k I think next move will be very telling. If we break up towards $93k then $100k comes next. If we break back down below $88k then it’s looks pretty over again for a while and we’re in for some more chop Very clear invalidations here for me. This is my last set of positions, I’m willing to give back some profit at this point in the hope we do infact push higher

@playrisk whats your target?

@ryzzqq would you mind sharing your current market view?

pretty much on track so far

doing good so far

@LDNCryptoClub looking forward to hearing your thoughts of current view on that

Looks like it’s going to be another day explaining why their will be no massive JPY carry trade unwind 🙄

@0xSleuth_ is there any alt you holding or accumulating?

unfortunate chart but thats expected with a hyped launch + limited liquidity and with the token being essentially a memecoin i did a drawing before launch as to what i thought the chart might look like prelaunch and it was fairly similar it definitely was still possible to make money trading the swings, but im sure overall most people lost money

@BaroOdyssey im liquidated.. and lost all I made over 3 years.. not sure what to do now.. do not have penny now to buy anything to eat.. but maybe good luck to you

GM The PA on BTC and the overall market isn't normal at all, and I am sure no one could tell why or could have predicted it. Only some of those who were bearish around $112k are still claiming clout. What I mean by PA isn't normal is that in perpetual futures, the market is a two-sided contract: If you take a long, someone else must take a short. Even if 70% of traders want to long, the remaining 30% may be much larger in size, or market makers can take the opposite side. So after the long liquidation cascade, Why does price often go UP? This is the part most people misunderstand. A liquidation event removes the long position but it leaves the opposite shorts still open. When $1B of longs are liquidated, the equivalent $1B of shorts remain open and are now in profit (because the liquidation filled their position) What do profitable shorts eventually do? They take profit. And closing a short = buyback. Another reason is that the orderbook becomes thin during a violent cascade: Bids get cleared, the orderbook becomes empty and liquidity disappears When selling stops, even small buy orders push price extremely fast upward. which is called a liquidity vacuum. Now here is the part which isnt normal. According to Coinglass, since oct 10 we have a total of around $20B long liquidation cascades on different days, and yet the price is still continuously falling. October 10–11, 2025 $16.7 billion November 3, 2025 $1.072 billion November 17, 2025 $0.95 billion November 21, 2025 $1.78 billion Yet there is no relief, and the market has been so easy for bears that all they have to do is just keep shorting it. Until the selling pressure isn't ended, which is mainly spot selling of BTC. We won't bottom out, and in such conditions, NO TA works. Every major HTF support has been broken so easily if it meant nothing.

@Gold_Cryptoz toshi good too

For the first time in a while I’ve nibbled on some memes. These have filled the October 10 wicks and I think can easily pull 50%-100% move on a BTC relief bounce. $USELESS $SPX $FARTCOIN are my picks Small size with this idea. Even in the most brutal downtrends we have pity bounces

@MacroCRG check $glm guess you like it

$XPL fastest horse on the bounce... again

@playrisk still hold strk?

@sell9000 do you bid btc or alts?

@BaroOdyssey because i cannot find any alt setups.. what alts do you watch for?

Really don't know, brothers, what is gonna happen next, but if I have any knowledge of this market and my system is gonna work, then we're most likely at the bottom around $94k region, may go down later, but first a relief rally should come, and relief rallies do turn into proper reversal sometimes. $BTC

@BaroOdyssey alts relief rally too? or just btc?

@Gold_Cryptoz still holding your btc long?

The sellers

@YippoNoodle maybe add to longs at 98k?

Cut these incremental adds for small loss. Still have the other longs though

My current sense is that BTC and alts may just chop or drift lower over the next few days. I still hold around 30% of my BTC and alt longs from $99k and would look to compound if i) we get another leg down or ii) we flip the trend from the last few weeks and grind higher mid-week. > No real trend shift yet. Monday has once again marked the weekly high (so far). In each of the last 5 weeks, we have failed to grind up mid-week (see my last post) > ETF volumes were abysmal on Monday, showing little fresh demand. Saylor is expected to be active at some point this week, but unclear if it’s worth trading around. > A lot of shorts have already been cleared out, limiting squeeze potential. There are now more liquidations available to the downside > Candidly, I am a bit weary about the potential deluge of backdated economic data that will get released this week and next week > The government shutdown ending was one of the “bricks in the wall of worry” we had to climb. Crypto acted as the only release valve for that weekend news since equities were closed

@YippoNoodle youre my quant

I have added a bit to BTC and alt longs here

@omzcharts where do you lev trading silver?

Closed $Silver swing longs +$1,200. 🔥🔥 No #BTC trades for now, waiting patiently.

Giving away $500 to 2 winners, $250 each Follow @EarnEliteCrypto, me and retweet! Winners announced next week. Good luck!

@YippoNoodle you mean 15% of the whole pf or 20% minus 15%?

Looking good. Trimmed ~15% because group chats getting euphoric

Quick update on Bitcoin There are perp bids stacked below price (first image) and similar action on spot (second image). Many of the spot asks were pulled which could mean they were either i) spoofing to push price down and get their bids filled or ii) they don’t think their asks will get hit and would rather market sell instead. The last image shows a clear pickup in fresh shorts right at the lows which sets up a decent opportunity for a short squeeze if we get any spot participation. I’m still mostly flat outside of my IBIT calls but started nibbling on some light leveraged longs across BTC and a few alts (~0.3x perps book). I’d look to add more if we see shorts press the lows, spot buyers step in, we get a mechanical bounce off the ~$98k zone and if signs of progress on the government shutdown start to emerge. We’re still at the mercy of equities here but BTC has been comparatively resilient. Also, remember that BTC has bottomed on Thur / Fri last 4 weeks before pumping into Sunday. Separately, if equities continue selling off today I’ll be adding to my high conviction stocks.

@BaroOdyssey youre my quant

Expecting some good pumps across the market tonight and tomorrow. $BTC $101,500 $SOL $158 $ETH $3370 There has been enough damage done last week; we are ready for a relief pump.