Mr Blonde

@GavMcCracken Thanks, makes sense, through commons or calls too?

@wcrelease $MAI.V I expect to go to $17 CAD within 24 months. $PGDC.V is my portfolios slightly in the money call option on gold. If gold skyrockets, this could easily 10x or more. If gold goes flat it's a 2.5x or so. $SU is, yes, diversification. If oil prices go over $200, miners crash.

Ok I DM'd 20 random finance people that all work on wall street. Consensus (14/15 replies) is Iran has no choice but to fold, they've played all their cards, impossible for them to continue. That's what we're betting against if we buy oil ladies and gentleman.

@ArrakisGlobal He’s going full chamath, “it’s €30 coz I say so”

Never mind… more Ackman antics… would be surprised if it moves a lot.

Everyone who went long and used me as a contra is welcome 🤗 $UMG businesswire.com/news/home/2026….

seems relevant

@leevalueroach Take a look at $wulf instead, high teens unlevered returns on deals backed by Google. They’re the real operators. Granted also still in build out phase but they actually have a shot of delivering unlike $iren 3% roic deal with $msft

Whoops

@CasinoCapital No they’re both buys, rea will also come back for rmv

Rough six months for everyone's favourite property and car portals Rightmove -45% Autotrader -40% Is AI really going to displace them?

@ryu_tay Property classifieds unlikely to be disrupted, search isn’t a time save, people enjoy the process an don’t want “one home to look at”

Some thoughts from Gem on the SaaSpocalypse locally. $WTC, $PME appear to be the strongest moat $EOL comes next Classified ones are in grey zone Surprisingly $OCL and $XRO are in muddy water

@Uzocapital They’re both buys with any lt horizon, $rmv.l has a big chance of $rea coming back for it too

Rightmove $RMV.L & Autotrader $AUTO.L trading on 13x GAAP PE 2027….growing UK monopolies with pricing power, 50% free cashflow margins. Struggle to see why a dominant 2 sided network + destination website gets disrupted by ai vs layering ai tools themselves? What am i missng?

@TomSmith839 Fast casual vs qsr different skillset lets see how the roll out goes and if toast is successful.

@wcrelease Applebee’s?

Two interesting points from $PAR at Needham Conference Full service dining outperforming quick service (guess which two players mostly serve the former) 2025 was a though year for restaurants but seems to improve since December

@TomSmith839 Managing an enterprise scale rollout eg BK is very very different to catering for a local coffee shop. $toast has shown zero ability to have pmf at the enterprise level

I have no strong opinion on $PAR and some very smart investors own shares, but I can’t imagine a future where Toast doesn’t eat its lunch

@bobspaysubstack Makes sense re $afrm I guess something like $zip.ax may be more protected as it’s a pure bnpl model, no traditional instalment products in the US, similar to $xyz with Afterpay.

You could look at it that way, and they would definitely get a boost, but if there’s increased scrutiny on APRs on credit products then that could eventually be trained on $AFRM and other BNPL providers. >70% of $AFRM’s GMV in the most recent quarter was interest bearing, with some APRs quite high.

Regulatory firestorm for the credit card industry $V and $MA Okay, so my posts have been a bit meandering today, but here’s a recap: President Trump has thrown his full weight behind the credit card competition act, which also had the support of his vice president in the past. I have no way of handicapping whether this will pass or not, but the odds are certainly higher after today and a vote almost certainly will happen in the Senate. The purpose of the bill is to drive down the cost of credit interchange by allowing merchants the option of processing a credit transaction over two unaffiliated networks. The technical implementation of such a thing would likely be complex and lengthy. Lower credit interchange would have far reaching consequences. Significantly pared back or eliminated rewards programs is the most obvious. On the other hand, it would be a big boost for PSPs $PYPL $XYZ $TOST $SHOP that charge a gross fee to the merchant and interchange is a cost of goods sold, driving up the transaction margin. Also sitting out there is the threatened 10% cap on credit card interest rates. Still think that is unlikely to go anywhere but $JPM certainly painted a dire picture of what the industry would look like if it happened (hint, a significant reduction in access to credit for a large portion of the population). Right now, it looks like the ire of the Trump administration is squarely focused on the credit card industry. If you’re a bull you’re relying on President Trump’s preferred style of negotiation which is to make big threats to extract some (small) movement and claim victory. I still think that’s the more likely outcome. Needless to say, if both of these measures passed or were implemented the industry would cease to exist anywhere near its current form.

@compound248 BNPL names will explode due to this

Good luck getting a credit card approved if your FICO is 750 or below. Perhaps 780 or below. In housing, we create demand where there isn’t enough supply. Here, we are going to cut supply where there is tons of demand for low income credit.

@investingluc $zip.ax too

I was laying in bed last night thinking about the news regarding a 10% cap on credit card interest rates. And there's a huge winner. (but it’s not shorting $V or $MA like everyone’s screaming about) It's the BNPL trade. Why? If credit card issuers get forced into a 10% cap, they’re going to pull back on risky borrowers...really fast, which instantly removes access to credit for millions of people. But (obviously) those consumers can't just stop spending, so they just migrate to using something else. ...and the only place for them to migrate is *buy now, pay later*. Trump's announcement becomes a *structural* tailwind for BNPL adoption. Without access to credit, people get pushed to alternative "credit" rails. We literally just saw record numbers of BNPL activity over the holiday season. Demand is there. So you have tightening credit, record demand, and a political catalyst that steers millions of consumers into BNPL by default? aka an entire sector is on the verge of re-pricing... I'm watching a few BNPL names: One. $AFRM...cleanest pure BNPL exposure in the usa with a huge merchant network, and a direct volume lift coming Two. $KLAR...largest BNPL platform in the world, recent IPO, eating market share in the US quickly Three. $PYPL...massive distribution, "PayPal Pay Later" is already everywhere at checkout Four. $SQ (owns cashapp + afterpay)...exposure to BNPL + consumer lending rails...secondary winner But my top focus is $AFRM. > more direct exposure & sensitivity to the U.S. credit tightening catalyst > affirm is overwhelmingly us-centric > stronger U.S. merchant penetration > direct $amzn integration > exclusive partnership with $shop I like $KLAR too, but if this 10% cap only applies to the USA, then $AFRM is the most direct, immediate beneficiary. This theme is about to really heat up. $AFRM is currently $81.80.

@656hjhfgvt The biggest risk to all of these miner to hpc plays is execution, $hut hasn’t done this before. But outside of $corz (due to capex being funded) this deal is the best in the space by a mile. We’re also long

9/9 $HUT HUT 8 climbs to a top 10 holding in my portfolio. I’m planning adds to push it higher. Am I missing anything? Dissenting voices are encouraged to add their take…

1/9 $HUT Overlooked, some investors are still looking at the wrong metrics, treating the stock like a BTC miner. It’s not. $HUT isn’t just pivoting to AI, it is turning into an AI infrastructure operator with long term revenue tied to big tech. Breaking $60 today, feels legit 🚀

The btc miner to HPC transition sees a lot of grift and promotion. Some good deals in the space, $wulf with fluidstack, $cifr with AWS+ FS, and some less good deals, $iren with $msft, $corz delivery issues with $crwv. The recent $hut deal stands out at River Bend, Louisiana

Discl: we don't own the stock yet, just found the deal interesting and doing more work

Valn: Given $goog FULL credit backstop, argue these cashflows could be capped at 20x vs ~17x today (assume NOI = EBITDA) plus upside from expansions. Risk is execution and delivery, dont know this mgmt team or operational expertise, any thoughts welcome.