Wendel Trio

If #EU is serious about #1point5 and equity, it needs to reduce overall emissions before 2030 in order to have any space for a carbon budget after 2030. Even then, unless radical changes occur, net zero by 2035 will become almost unavoidable

This surplus will continue to be accumulated in the coming years. Very simply said, this could lead to a trajectory were the EU in fact would only need to reduce emissions by -40% to reach the -55% target as indicated in the graph below

At launch of #IPCC #AR6 Synthesis Report UNSG @antonioguterres called upon #EU and others to “reach net zero as close as possible to 2040”. #EU needs new targets for 2030/2035. I'll explain why @TimmermansEU @vonderleyen @CharlesMichel @pcanfin @EUClimateAction @CANEurope

Also note that economic impacts of climate change will be hardest felt by southern and eastern European countries

Note that most of the negative impacts will be felt by future generations. A clear example of how current generations are pushing the bill forward to their children and grandchildren. It is about time our leaders take the cost of inaction into account when making decisions

New briefing comparing costs to reduce GHG with economic impacts of climate change: current EU policies lead to GDP loss of 7%/year by 2100, the FF55 55 proposals bring GDP loss to 2.5%/year, while 1.5°C pathways would increase GDP by almost 1%/year bit.ly/3Snx43N

And complements domestic carbon budgets with additional financial obligations based on a more equitable share of the remaining global carbon budget, as shown in below table with biggest contributors

This new briefing identifies domestic carbon budgets for each European country on an equal per capita share of the budget, as shown in below table with biggest emitters

What does the limited remaining carbon budget mean for Europe? New briefing identifies needed emission reductions and climate finance commitments for 42 European countries, based on a 1.5°C compatible global carbon budget. #FitFor1Point5 bit.ly/3Bp5Vra

EP #ENVI amendments to EU climate policy proposals (#EmissionsTrading #EffortSharing #LULUCF) would reduce EU's emissions budget for 2021 to 2030 by 8%. This would cover 1/3rd of the gap between #Fitfor55 and what is needed to achieve #Fitfor1point5. See my calculations below

Want to know more about temperature projections with current pledges action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions? Have a look here: drive.google.com/file/d/1KFCz3Y…

Let's hope 2022 will bring progress in tackling global ghg emissions. 2021 pledges brought temperature estimates down, but still far from 1.5°C, as below graph indicates (link to more info at bottom). All countries need to revisit their pledges in 2022. All, as in also the EU!

The Commission's statement that the EU will not revisit its 2030 climate target, despite its commitment to do so in Glasgow, will negatively impact other countries' action. On top, find seven arguments on why the -55% is not fit for 1.5°C, here: drive.google.com/file/d/1_wApHI…

40 GtCO2 is 10%/13% of the 1.5°C budget. Compared against 5.8% of the world's population now and 4.4% in 2050, the EU's targets are not #FitFor1Point5. And including its historical responsibility and capacity to act they are neither #FairFor1Point5. See:drive.google.com/file/d/1ncu_71…

When calculating annual emissions under the Commission's June 2021 ETS/ESR/LULUCF proposals, combined with a linear reduction from 2030 to NZ2050 and assuming the share of CO2 to remain stable, the EU's total carbon budget would be around 40 GtCO2

The size of the EU's carbon budget under its #FitFor55 and #EUGreenDeal proposals would be double the size of its per capita share of the #CarbonBudget available to stay at 1.5°C. See next tweets and drive.google.com/file/d/1ncu_71…