West Michigan Weather

@BlayneWX @NWSDetroit Glad everyone is okay! Sorry about all the damage!

@NWSDetroit a tornado hit my family farm here in Tuscola County on 5389 Bay Park Rd. Tree damage and roof blown off of the shed. All debris was thrown to the west.

@WxWiseApp the new alert update did not work for me today in a SV.W and an SP.S Also, this persistent, repeating notification is a bit of a nuisance.

📢 SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT Areas: Isabella Until: 4:45 PM EDT Sun, May 17 Issued by NWS Grand Rapids MI Max Wind: 40 MPH | Max Hail: 0.75 in. | Headline: A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Isabella County through 445 PM EDT Storm Motion: Moving NE at 29 mph If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Areas along/north of I-96 are being monitored for potential watch issuance. Thunderstorms are beginning to develop, with the strongest storms this afternoon/evening capable of large hail, damaging winds, and possibly a tornado or two.

🟡 9:00 AM Update: SPC has upgraded areas north of I-96 to a level 2/5 "Slight" risk for severe weather. This upgrade is driven by the introduction of a 15-29% probability of damaging wind gusts and large hail, and a 5-9% probability of a tornado. The tornado risk update in particular also includes a Conditional Intensity Group (CIG) 1 parameter, indicating that the reasonable max intensity of any potential tornado would be EF-1 to EF-3. This is shown by the area of black hatched lines north of a Holland to Lansing line.

Partly sunny skies are expected today with highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s and variable winds shifting to the south/southeast later this afternoon and evening. A warm front pushes into the area today, which may fire off some scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. Some of these storms may become strong to severe, especially along and north of M-46. All severe hazards will be possible with any stronger storm that develops, as a supercell or modified supercell storm mode is expected. Large hail and damaging winds would be the main concern, but as mentioned yesterday, a sneaky tornado or 2 could be possible, especially if a storm can latch onto the warm front. --- Join West Michigan's #1 weather team on Patreon! Free memberships or paid subscriptions are available. Everyone gets FREE notifications for critical forecasts, and paid members get early/exclusive access, discount codes, behind-the-scenes looks, and more for as little as $1 per month (just 3 cents per day!) New members get 50% off their first month for a limited time with code 07C51. Join today at patreon.com/westmiwx

ℹ️Severe Weather Update: Here is our latest update on severe weather threats for the remainder of this weekend and into early next week. First and foremost, we need to note that our confidence, particularly with regard to Monday and Tuesday, is low, if not very low, at this point in the forecast period. Models cannot seem to agree on much, besides the fact that instability (storm fuel) will be present. Bottom line, expect some revisions to these forecasts. Rest of Today: (Image 1) The rest of today and overnight tonight should remain dry for most. A few isolated showers and thunderstorms may develop with lightning and brief downpours being the main concern, though some gusty winds and perhaps a small hailstone or 2 may be possible. Sunday: (Image 2) The NWS Storm Prediction Center has added areas along and north of I-94 to a level 1/5 "Marginal" risk for severe storms. Given the amount of instability that will be working it's way into our area tomorrow, we can't rule out some thunderstorms developing in the afternoon and evening hours. A couple of these could become strong to locally severe. Main threats with this activity would be damaging winds up to 60 MPH and some small to perhaps large hail, as well as frequent lightning. This will be driven by a warm front moving into the area, which could result in a sneaky tornado threat, so we'll be keeping an eye on this. Not overly concerned about this right now, but be sure to check back in tomorrow morning for an update! Monday: (Image 3) Monday has been the day we've been talking about for the last several days. Normally, by this point, we are starting to get a halfway decent idea of what to expect. However, this system is a bit tricky, and our computer models can only seem to agree on one thing: storm fuel. Storm fuel, or instability, is a measure, at a basic level, of how strong the updraft of a storm can be. The stronger the updraft, the stronger the storm. Normally, we like to see instability values of 500-1000 J/kg for strong to severe storms. For Monday, we are currently forecasting anywhere from 1,500 to 3,000 J/kg. So more than double what we like to see. The problem is wind shear... we don't have a lot of wind shear to support storm organization being shown in the vast majority of the models. So the location, storm mode, and hazard types are still a really big question. Additionally, early morning showers and storm activity may be ongoing. This could do a lot of things, including eating into our storm fuel and lowering our overall severe threat, or create remnant outflow boundaries that could serve as a spark for severe storms later, or any number of other things to further complicate the forecast. Right now, the good news is that the lack of shear will keep the tornado threat very low. However, damaging winds and large to very large hail could be a bit of a higher threat than normal. Timing is all over the place with this threat, but we can realistically say that any time after lunch, and especially closer to dinner, is the time frame to watch right now. Of course, this is all subject to change, so be sure to stay tuned, especially later tomorrow and Monday morning, for our final forecasts! Tuesday (Image 4) Finally, the SPC has added areas south and east of Grand Rapids to a new Day 4 Outlook. The cold front that drives our activity on Monday is forecast to stall out on Monday night and then slide through our area on Tuesday. The front moving through will act as a spark for additional storms to form in an environment still very much unstable, with instability values of 1,000 to 3,500 J/kg. Not only will the front serve as a spark, but it will also increase wind shear, which is lacking from Monday's threat. Due to this increase in wind shear, the damaging wind threat and tornado threat could be a bit higher than on Monday. Confidence is low for this forecast, too, however, because it will really come down to how Monday goes before we have a clear idea about the extent of Tuesday's risk. For now, this is something to watch.

⚠️ A Severe Thunderstorm Warning has been issued for parts of Ionia, Clinton, and Gratiot Counties!

Showers and thunderstorms will continue to work through the area this morning. As we approach the lunch hour, clouds will begin to decrease giving way to partly to mostly sunny skies and highs in the lower 70s to lower 80s.

Severe thunderstorms continue to appear possible, perhaps even likely, on Monday. We're still 4 days out but our local risk appears to be increasing at least a bit. Questions about wind shear and storm mode remain and future updates will be needed so stay tuned!

On this day in Michigan weather history: May 15, 2025, a squall line of severe storms brought widespread damaging winds of 70-90 MPH through West Michigan, also spawning 11 tornadoes across the state. Watch our recap video here youtu.be/XwdU2ExmEUI?si…

Partly sunny skies are expected today with highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s. Can't rule out a stray sprinkle and maybe a rumble of thunder, especially this morning, but most of the day should be dry thanks to a rather dry low level. The same low relative humidity in the lower levels of the atmosphere that will keep most of the day dry, combined with warm temperatures and breezy south/southwest winds, will lead to a slightly elevated fire danger today. This means that conditions are more favorable for rapid/unpredictable wildfire behavior should one be sparked. Burn restrictions may be in effect. Check with the DNR and local/county officials prior to outdoor burning. --- Join West Michigan's #1 weather team on Patreon! Free memberships or paid subscriptions are available. Everyone gets FREE notifications for critical forecasts, and paid members get early/exclusive access, discount codes, behind-the-scenes looks, and more for as little as $1 per month (just 3 cents per day!) New members get 50% off their first month for a limited time with code 07C51. Join today at patreon.com/westmiwx

We are watching a return to a more active weather pattern beginning this upcoming weekend into early next week, including some potential chances for severe weather. We are watching a low-end chance for isolated severe weather on Saturday afternoon, with a Level 1/5 (Marginal) risk across far Southwest Lower MI. Overall our concern is low for now, but isolated damaging winds and large hail cannot be fully ruled out. Our main focus is on this coming Monday, where severe weather concerns are a bit higher in nature. The majority of our area is in a 15-29% probability risk for severe weather in the extended-range outlook from the SPC. Still plenty of details to work out this far in advance, so continue to monitor for forecast updates as we draw closer to Monday.

Our severe storm risks for this weekend and early next week, particularly on Monday, appear to be increasing. Full article on our Patreon at patreon.com/westmiwx with more to be released here on social media in the coming days!

ERROR in the post above: Corrected statement below. Join West Michigan's #1 weather team on Patreon! Free memberships or paid subscriptions are available. Everyone gets FREE notifications for critical forecasts, and paid members get early/exclusive access, discount codes, behind-the-scenes looks, and more for as little as $1 per month (just 3 cents per day!) New members get 50% off their first month for a limited time with code 07C51. Join today at patreon.com/westmiwx

Let's take a look at the next 5 days together. Dry conditions are forecast for tomorrow and for much of the area on Friday, thanks to high pressure over the area. Plenty of sunshine and a steady warming trend will carry us into the weekend. By Saturday, we will see even hotter air start to work into the area. This air will be a bit more moist and hence will favor some chances for isolated showers and thunderstorms. This will continue on Sunday, and highs both days may reach the lower 80s for some areas. Storms on Sunday have a chance to become strong to severe. Aside from the thunderstorm chances, Saturday has the potential to feature an elevated wildfire danger, primarily across our northeastern areas, thanks to breezy winds, warm temperatures, and low to moderate relative humidity values. Finally, let's look at Monday. This is the day we are most focused on/concerned about at this point. Monday will feature even hotter, moister air and even better chances for strong to severe thunderstorms, especially in the evening. All hazards, including damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes, will be possible with this activity. Highs could push 90°F on Monday! Stay tuned for updates on our severe threats! Give us a follow or sign up for our Patreon page (see details below). --- Join West Michigan's #1 weather team on Patreon! Free memberships or paid subscriptions are available. Everyone gets FREE notifications for critical forecasts, and paid members get early/exclusive access, discount codes, behind-the-scenes looks, and more for as little as $1 per month (just 3 cents per day!) New members get 1 month free for a limited time with code 07C51. Join today at patreon.com/westmiwx

Mostly sunny today with highs in the upper 50s to mid 60 and north winds around 5-15 MPH.

We're keeping an eye on the end of the upcoming weekend and the early part of next week for severe thunderstorm potential to make a return to West Michigan. Full article out on our Patreon page now, and we'll be sharing more here on our social media pages as the event draws closer. patreon.com/posts/watching…

Mostly cloudy skies are expected today. It will be notably cooler with highs 10°F-15°F below yesterday. Breezy conditions will continue, this time with northwest winds, and gusts could top 30-35 MPH today.