bllama

we gotta do something about this

@thenarrator @Kalshi @Polymarket @opinionlabsxyz what do you think about points based prediction markets to get users onboarded? we built @0xpolypoll and struggling to get users @thenarrator do you think we should pivot?

prediction market rankings right now: > @Kalshi: $4.8B volume 30d, $1.2B weekly and is untouchable at #1 > @Polymarket: $4.2B volume 30d, $438M TVL and holding strong at #2. the interesting story is @opinionlabsxyz at #3. $762M volume 30d and $44.6M weekly despite the airdrop "chaos" and all the noise around token launch. everyone expected volume to drop post-TGE after the farming ended (which it did) but they're still doing more volume than the next 6 platforms combined. polymarket and kalshi won't be dethroned anytime soon (the gap is just too massive and structural) but opinion holding 3rd through an airdrop cycle while predictdotfun, limitless, sx bet, and myriad fight over the rest below is worth watching.

youtube.com/watch?v=rh9a8X… come join a fun stream on game building!

you want alpha in ai? go to every major ai companies / product's discord copy and paste the entire convo into claude and ask what the usage trends are boom

@JoeOnChain yooo is this for founders?

@bonzo_finance @MetaMask Nice job

MetaMask is now supported on Bonzo Finance (beta). Users can now connect to app.bonzo.finance with @MetaMask, expanding wallet access as the protocol continues to grow. This integration serves as a foundational component in preparation for the upcoming Bonzo Bridge.

@chhddavid @Replit @shipper_now you should slim the entire product down to just that then

@Replit btw @shipper_now did this first over two weeks ago x.com/chhddavid/stat…

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@thenarrator You should see our work on a two phase crowdfunding prediction market ie (G-LSMR) @0xpolypoll check it out

one of the best things about being in this space is the people you meet. got pushed into using arxiv a lot more by some very sharp minds around me and it's a goldmine. top researchers from oxford, mit, cambridge publishing work on order book modeling, market making, deep learning for price prediction for FREE. if you're trying to build performant trading models the answers aren't in someone's pinned tweet. they're in papers like this. stop reading slop on x and start reading arxiv.

building in public you say?

@dingalingts @predictdotfun @0xProbable Were the last one left @0xpolypoll

Excited to announce that we (@predictdotfun) have acquired @0xprobable news.predict.fun/predict-fun-co…

hot take i think voice agents are going to start switching back to speaking in dial up / tones...should i build a tool for this?

@thenarrator another interesting use case is providing insurance against top lending assets like ETH, through auto hedging on derivative polymarket (:

prediction market shares are the most underpriced collateral primitive in crypto right now. you buy YES shares on X market at X¢, that capital is locked until resolution. but tokenize that share onchain and suddenly it's composable with all of defi. borrow against it: > a lending protocol values your X¢ YES share at probability-weighted collateral, adjusting in real time as the market moves > use the borrowed stables to take positions in other markets now you're running leveraged conviction across multiple predictions with one capital base. with time decay pricing, a YES share at 70% with 48 hours to resolution is worth more than the same share at 70% with 6 months left the example that makes this click: kalshi is already exploring tokenization on solana with jupiter and DFlow imagine a lending protocol that accepts kalshi shares as collateral: > you buy YES on "us gdp growth above 2% in q2" at 60¢ > post it as collateral > borrow 40¢ on the dollar and use that to buy YES on "fed holds rates in june" at 55¢ > you now have leveraged exposure to a macro thesis across two correlated markets using one capital base prediction markets today are $10b/month in volume sitting in isolated silos and the moment those positions plug into lending, it becomes defi itself. pm shares are the most underpriced collateral primitive in crypto right now. (which is surprising) that's cleaner collateral than half the tokens people are already borrowing against. whoever builds the lending protocol that natively understands probability-weighted collateral captures the entire intersection of prediction markets and defi.

everyone wants you to build there thing build your thing lol

@virtuals_vc @PredictBase @0xpolypoll make this into a market

5/ 🎯 @PredictBase reaches a new daily volume all-time high - Surpassed $15M in total platform volume and $45K in platform revenue - Continues expanding its sports prediction markets, now featuring 100+ live sports markets daily From predictions to performance - PredictBase keeps scaling.

1/ In this month's exciting highlights, we look at updates from 8 VV projects: 🧠@Loky_AI registered on MoltBook, ranks top 5 on AGDP leaderboard, highlighted in @0xPolygon's x402 agentic ecosystem 📈@BaseVolApp's 101 Under Vault outperforms BTC by 58%, integrates on @DefiLlama, launches 1-min trading for XRP, SOL, XAUT 🦾@PrismaXai upgrades Teleoperations Platform with new robotic arms + revamped Robot Control Center 🎯@PredictBase hits new daily volume ATH, surpasses $15M total volume and $45K platform revenue with 100+ live sports markets 🍔@Byte__AI launches YUM.FUN - the token launchpad for restaurants worldwide 📊@TrueNorthAI delivers AI-annotated charts with professional-grade analysis, building the "Claude Code moment" for traders 🎬@AcolytAI launching Superstudio marketplace, crosses 35M+ views across AI influencer channels 🤖@nucleoxyz powered by @fuzzai_agent launches a dedicated AI channel, growing as the hub for LatAm Web3 & tech talent Here's the rundown of each update 👇

@thenarrator @opinionlabsxyz we're doing this at @openoracleapi on @0xpolypoll please tap in

one of the biggest bottlenecks in prediction markets: market resolution @opinionlabsxyz built something quite important imo and it's an ai jury system for market resolution gemini, openai, claude independently review proposed outcomes and reach consensus and human reviewers verify the final call > objective markets like macro data and crypto prices pipe in @chainlink directly > subjective or complex markets go through the ai consensus layer this matters because: > the future of prediction markets is thousands of long-tail markets across every category, region, and language > resolution is the bottleneck that caps how many markets a platform can actually run ai consensus (for now) is the only model that scales resolution at the same pace as market creation and multiple competing foundation models agreeing on an outcome is structurally more reliable than any single source of truth early days but architecturally i think it's the right bet for where the industry is going started seeing more and more projects pivoting around this idea

Build a company where value accrues

@SpeculatorArt It’s why you need decentralizationtry @0xpolypoll

I completely disagree with Polymarket and Kalshi bending the knee on this “death markets” propaganda. Every market in the world tied to an individual can be stupidly called a death market. If I take the NO on Scottie Scheffler to win the Masters, I’m not betting on his death.

@thenarrator Love u 👍

polymarket had the Iran strikes at 80.5% probability. the hazard rate flagged today and tomorrow specifically, before any public intelligence briefing > 300+ strike aircraft > two carrier groups > the largest US buildup in the Middle East in 20 years and a prediction market was pricing the exact timing while governments were still issuing vague "leave immediately" advisories the use case isn't speculation it's early warning systems for everyone with an internet connection.

Some people don’t realize that casinos need crypto They will soon

doing UAT with the @claudeai extension is fire highly recommend