Matthew Wiley

Been seeing a lot of policy rumors on a #WTI export ban -- & here is why that would actually be counterproductive to oil prices [The core paradox] If the US banned WTI exports to "keep cheap oil at home," it would create numerous issues. [a] The majority of US refineries were built to process heavy, sour crude, which is mostly imported, & WTI is a light, sweet crude. So banning the exportation of WTI actually does nothing for domestic oil production, but rather hampers supply globally... This would leave WTI piling up at Cushing with nowhere to go -- collapsing the price of WTI domestically. However, the spot price of WTI would not touch any distillates, and would exacerbate the blow-out of #ULSD etc... #oott

PGA DFS & Betting | VALSPAR CHAMPIONSHIP | 3/18 - GOLFLANDIA x.com/i/broadcasts/1…

#natgas & the decision point [technically] Bullish case — price holds channel support from $2.81–$2.95, and price bounces back toward the midline of the channel around $3.10–$3.15 Bearish case — the lower high structure on price [blue dots] combined with weakening momentum suggests the channel is about to break down. If $2.81 gives way on a closing 4hr basis, the next meaningful support is considerably lower. ------------- Why Shoulder Season Is the Tell Shoulder season — April through May — is when natural gas demand hits its seasonal lows. Heating demand has faded, and cooling demand hasn't kicked in yet ... you're in the lowest consumption window of the year. & During shoulder season, the market is almost entirely in injection mode — producers are pumping gas into storage to rebuild inventory ahead of summer cooling demand. This is when the EIA weekly storage reports in this window are the clearest read of the structural supply/demand balance, because demand noise is minimized. So pay attention!