Will Mannon

China has 1.4 billion people and over a million foreigners. But fewer than 20 foreigners do standup comedy in Mandarin. I'm one of them. A short film about my 100th show...in Chinese.

JaimeOrtega's post replies to a chart of Uber's $31B cumulative losses from 2014-2022 before four straight profitable quarters in 2023, analogizing the endurance needed for Tesla's autonomous driving profitability. The attached image depicts Uber's stock plunging 64% in March 2020 amid COVID-19 lockdowns that halted ride-sharing, evoking shock at the sudden market reaction ("tf happened here"). This exchange underscores the high-stakes volatility in ride-hailing innovation, where Uber's recovery to $75/share by 2026 validates long-term bets despite early crashes, relevant to ongoing AV debates. h/t @grok

@growing_daniel tf happened here

imagine going through this just to have driving get automated 5 quarters into profitability

@AzeAlter Incredible

If we united. Our potential as a species is limitless. This, is the Age of Beyond.

@AzeAlter this is incredible, well done. you've got a new fan

If you discover how to prompt, AI is a window into your mind. Most of the time, it takes me a day or two, perhaps even longer to create a 5-15 second sequence with AI. Not because of hallucinations or glitches anymore. AI has advanced far to where it's not about catching mistakes like that and rerolling anymore. Every one of my videos was prompted and described to look exactly how it appears in my head. There are some beautiful instances where it spits out something you didn't expect, but flows with your project. That's the beauty of AI. The scene of the character in red is my friend as well. AI feels like magic.

I really hope to see a space habitat in our lifetime. I think AI will help us get there.

@0xaporia @dezgoldie had it first

Life is fucking electric bro. Don’t fall for the doomer shit. That’s for losers and normies scared of their own shadows. Walk around like God sent you and smile at everyone you see. Spread light and abundance. Build things and take chances. This is the best time in history!

The world will ask you what you are. If you do not know, the world will tell you. But if you know, YOU get to tell the world.

Sick of these doomer takes about the West. I've lived in China a lot recently, yes it's flashy and cool and yes I'll spend more time there. But I am a westerner through and through and my heart is and always will be with the West. So our systems are lagging? Let's build new ones! That's what I'm doing. Live Transformational Learning is the future of education and I'm helping to build that future. New institutions for the way the world is and will be. Don't complain or retreat permanently to Asia. Stay here and build. the. new.

Live Transformational Learning is the future of education. Get a sneak peek while it's still early: ltlstudios.co

In the evening I have a headache and I'm lying on the couch with Johanna, talking about autonomy. One way to think about human beings, at a very abstract level, is that we're information processing systems born with certain needs into a certain world. To meet our needs in this world, we have to build various mental models—both of how we work, what our needs are, and how the world works. We build mental model whose goal is to predict the world and ourselves well enough that we can make decisions that meet our needs. We try, in various ways, to seek pleasure and minimize pain, and so on. A lot of this happens through reinforcement learning. We cry, and then we notice that the people around us get stressed and can't meet our needs, so after a while we iterate our way to a different strategy, which is to suppress our tears. We crack a joke and nobody laughs and it's uncomfortable, so next time we do it a little differently. The goal of this process isn't to find "the truth" or the "optimal strategy," but simply something that's good enough for us to keep our system in some sort of reasonably satisfactory equilibrium. And the result of this kind of reinforcement learning is often something resembling those videos from 2015, when DeepMind first used reinforcement learning to teach 3D figures to walk. By giving them reward when they managed to walk further, the system could learn to walk, but there were often very strange artifacts—hands spinning around in the air, bizarre flailing of the upper body. I think many of us look like that on the inside too: we can make our way through life, but the way we walk is a bit jerky and peculiar, and it's far from ideal. Maybe we've iterated our way to alcohol as a way to regulate our negative emotions, or we do it by scrolling social media. We have various strange thought loops circling around in our heads, and so on. Different coping mechanisms that are good enough for us to avoid pain and live in relative equilibrium. They're not the strategies that would, objectively speaking, best help us meet our needs. But as I said, the algorithm we're running isn't searching for the objectively best—it's searching for what minimizes various signals (pain, prediction error, and so on), so it's easy to get stuck in these kinds of local maxima. Let me say the same thing again in slightly different words. What we call coping mechanisms are local maxima; they're solutions we've iterated our way to by trying different things and moving toward something that works better. Everything is a coping mechanism, even the most successful life strategies—the only difference is that those are coping mechanisms that are better at meeting our needs in both the short and long term, closer to the global maximum, the theoretical point where our mental models and behaviors are as good as they can be and everything we do is aligned with our needs and an accurate understanding of how the world works. To move toward that the ideal is "freely flowing information." That is: a state where we take in as much information as possible about the world—unfiltered, without biases, without avoiding things that are uncomfortable but true—so that we can efficiently update our world model and make more informed decisions; and also a free flow of information internally, where we don't suppress any feelings or needs within ourselves, but see everything as potential sources of useful information that can let us keep moving toward a deeper understanding, better decisions, and a richer life. To grow, in other words, we need to make sure this reinforcement learning process doesn't converge too early, leaving us stuck in the psychological equivalent of arms flailing in the air, but instead keeps moving forward toward a deeper understanding of ourselves and the world. And there are certain coping mechanisms, certain ways of relating to the pain that arises as you move through life, that are better at letting information flow, and those are the coping strategies worth cultivating. Instead of numbing yourself by scrolling social media, you want the coping mechanism where, when you feel stressed and bad, you get curious about the feeling. Instead of getting defensive when it turns out you're wrong, you want the coping mechanism where you get interested in your mistake and try to figure out why you were wrong. And so on. I'm not trying to say these are the optimal coping strategies—you can refine and deepen your mental models of how to handle negative emotions and feedback endlessly. What I'm describing here is just a kind of first step: coping mechanisms that lead to continued learning so you can gradually move toward even better ways of handling the situations.

On Scott Adams. A man finds, to his astonishment, that he exists. After the elation of childhood wears off, he asks, who am I, why am I here, how does this work? These are hard questions, so after a brief struggle, he selects a readymade answer and goes about the motions of life. Scott Adams was not such a man. He was a live player, ever curious, intent on figuring out this simulation that he found himself in. From first principles, Scott unraveled, understood, and ultimately controlled his own reality. He hacked himself with affirmations, others with persuasion, the world with simultaneous sips. He explained people as moist robots, two movies happening on one screen, his world as Gods’ debris. He carved a personal mission to “be useful,” and made us all better writers, public speakers, and persuaders. He preached the footwear theory of motivation, the Adams Law of slow-moving disasters, the skill stack, systems over goals, and of course, the Dilbert Principle. Besides cartooning, philosophizing, and teaching, Scott rose to the occasion and displayed, “the one virtue that cannot be faked” - courage. Scott had the courage to speak honestly as he saw it - about Trump, about his nation, and about his time, even though it cost him friends, audience, money, and his ticket to polite society. Scott had true courage, the kind that makes you unpopular, the kind that is always and everywhere in short supply, At the end, as any hacker of reality, Scott covered all of his bases - he left as a Buddhist, a Christian, and a player in the Simulation. Scott, we didn’t get enough time with you, but you were a mentor and a marvel. You were useful and you were courageous. You were incompressible and indivisible. One of a kind, and generous with your drawing, writing, and speaking. Unlike your squealing critics in the chattering class, you will be read generations from now. On this earth there are many long-lived hells but no lasting heaven. Each heaven must be created and nurtured, ex-nihilo, from mind and from mud. Scott, you created a small heaven for us all, and to a larger heaven you go. A man finds, to his astonishment, that he no longer exists. He asks why, what it was for, and how will the new reality work? When the rest of us get there, we’ll find Scott, ever useful, ready to explain, having figured it all out. Notes: • First line paraphrasing Schopenhauer. • Courage quote via Taleb.

RIP Scott Adams, a unique mind, insightful, brave and witty.

@adamcotterill95 Thanks man appreciate it 🙏

@will_mannon Dude this is so fcking epic. Love watching you forge this path for yourself dude. It's incredible.

China has 1.4 billion people and over a million foreigners. But fewer than 20 foreigners do standup comedy in Mandarin. I'm one of them. A short film about my 100th show...in Chinese.

@jestonlu @sivers Never seen that before, cool he does that...

@will_mannon These write ups remind me of what @sivers does every time he meets someone new around the world: sive.rs/met

This is Wang. First thing he says: “Hey I drove you before!” Somehow, in a city of ~9 million people, I got the same cab driver twice. “Are you sure?” “Yeah, you’re the guy who does comedy!” Apparently we met sometime last fall. I couldn’t quite remember, but this time I’ve taken note: Wang is from Qujing, a small town 100km outside of Kunming He graduated high school then started working “odd jobs”. When I pressed for more details, he wouldn’t say Wang started driving this cab six years ago It’s hard work — he drives seven days a week, 10-12 hours per day, all night shifts. A few days off per month, plus holidays Wang has traveled around China but never internationally. His fav place to visit is Chongqing. I explained how Chongqing has gone viral in the states lately He had a positive take on the US. He said he’s seen shortform videos about life there and it looks “like all things are nice”. His platforms of choice are Douyin (Tiktok) and competitor Kuaishou. He has never used Xiaohongshu (Little Red Book) We talked American politics. He knew Trump, Biden and Vance (although he asked if Vance was Trump’s wife, lol) At the end of the ride, I checked how much stray cash I had in my wallet, and introduced Wang to the US custom of “a tip” 7,000 miles from home, it was nice to see a familiar face

I've never forgotten a quote I heard from Aaron Swartz's eulogy. From one of his teachers: "He was marvelously and vigorously different. There's a rarity in that."

First open mic of the year in Kunming

We need more rugged individualism, not less. Build on the frontier. Be independent. Decentralize power. Accelerate civilizational progress. Celebrate economic freedom.

Never done this before. As I start another year of Chinese classes, I’m going to focus all of my 1:1 class time into six buckets. These topics are most relevant to my work and the things I find most interesting right now. It’s a more systematic approach to language learning. Since college I’ve never used a textbook to learn Chinese. I just show up in class and talk about whatever I feel like talking about. As long as I’m having fun, I won’t ever stop. This year I’m going to be more focused. There’s an infinite amount of Chinese vocab to learn, and when I scatter across dozens of different topics, I don’t retain the learning as well. So instead, these are my six themes. I’ll also find podcast episodes related to these topics so that my listening practice lines up with the new structure. I have three hours of online class today (Sunday AM right now in China) to shore up core vocab in each bucket. Then my 1:1 classes start tomorrow (I’m learning Chinese on the side as I built my company on ET hours. Will be in Kunming now through Jan 24, so I have three weeks of in-person class to test out this new system)

My Chinese listening practice is the spiritual opposite of doomscrolling. Singular focus. Unbroken Flow state. Deeply meaningful. 100% tied to my future visions. Yesterday, I ran an experiment. I spent nearly an hour on Twitter, jumping chaotically across images, videos, hot takes. After, I wrote down how my mind felt: Frazzled Scattered Restless Noisy Unsettled Jumpy Shallow Dissatisfied Then, immediately after, I spent one hour immersed in focused Chinese listening. Eyes closed, no distractions, trying as hard as I possibly could to understand each word. After I wrote how my mind felt: Still Calm Tranquil Glad Fully content Brimming with potential Aware of the possible Satisfied Within one hour my inner state had been transformed, all thanks to where I pointed my attention. Attention allocation is a choice. We make choices – consciously or subconsciously – then inherent the consequences of those choices. I fragment my attention all the time. It’s a daily battle. But Chinese gives me a singular object of focus at which to aim my attention, my beam of life whose worth is beyond description.

A new year, a new podcast episode w/ @will_mannon We reflected on the Internet Serendipity World Tour: • how venues have 3 main variables: control, cost, and aesthetic • how we iterated along the way by adding another small group chat round Thank you to everyone part of this!