William Gorfein

@MelMattison1 Agreed. Going in, our data reads ~1.8M new subs (street: ~270K) and viewing near a nine-year high. Full read 👇 peerlogix.com/research/nflx-…

Capitulation sell day on NQ. Look for a positive reaction to $NFLX after close to begin a big rally.

Firms expect about 270,000 new members this quarter. Our viewing math points to about 1.8 million. The show that was supposed to end an era is still on the board. So is the era. Research, not investment advice.

$NFLX reports earnings tomorrow. The story on the street is that people watch Netflix less now that the show is over. Our panel says the opposite: against the other paid streamers, Netflix is at a nine-year high, up 23% in a year.

STRANGER THINGS is 10 years old today. It ended on New Year's Eve. Six and a half months later, it's still the #9 most-watched show in America. Most shows don't do this.

@alphacharts365 The stock reverses… A Thursday number that isn't on the chart: most estimates say +270K US/Canada subscribers. Our read from household viewing: +1.8 million.

Will $NFLX Netflix earnings this week reverse or accelerate this pattern?

@VladBastion Living-room viewing says otherwise: against the other paid streamers, Netflix is at nine-year highs, up 23% in a year.

Netflix is a top 5% Quality Compounder in the world. And the stock is down 40%. Why? $NFLX Users and engagement are softening. Sensor Tower: MAUs -3% year over year (both US and global). Time spent -8% in the US and -7% globally. Netflix is losing attention to YouTube. Its share of total streaming time spent fell from 50% to 48% in one quarter. Per Nielsen, it gave back roughly half of its full-year viewership share gains to YouTube in 2026 alone. The core investor debate right now is competition and engagement. Revenue growth still looks great, but it's increasingly carried by advertising and price hikes rather than new subscribers. And the market no longer looks willing to value an asset like this at 40x earnings the way it did last year.

@1000xStocks Viewing data agrees. Against the other paid streamers, Netflix is at nine-year highs... up 23% in a year.

Most people still think $NFLX is a streaming company… They're missing what's becoming their biggest growth business. $NFLX reports earnings on July 16. Its ad-supported tier now reaches 250M monthly viewers, and 60% of new sign-ups choose the ad plan. Ad revenue is expected to double again this year to $3B. Management is building what many analysts believe could become a $9B annual advertising business over time. Check this out: - 325M subscribers - $12.5B free cash flow - 20x Forward P/E Add live sports, premium advertisers, and pricing power... $NFLX may end up looking more like an advertising company than a streaming company.

@anishmoonka The real question is December: Stranger Things and The Witcher are done, and the announced late-2026 slate wins back about two-thirds of that audience.

Reed Hastings ran Netflix on four rules: no ads, no bundles, no channels, no distractions. He left the board on June 4. Weeks later, Wall Street Journal reporting said two are back on the table: always-on genre channels and bundles of rival services. The push came from one number. At Netflix's spring business review, most of the picture looked strong: profit was up, cancellations were the lowest in the industry, and the final season of Stranger Things was going out on a high. The number that worried executives was engagement, meaning how much time members actually spend watching and how often they finish a show. Netflix's slice of US TV time had dropped to 7.8% in April, per Nielsen, its lowest in almost a year, and fewer people were coming back for season two of shows like One Piece and Beef. Netflix already ran this experiment once. Back in 2020 it launched a channel in France called Direct that played scheduled movies and shows for people who wanted to lean back instead of pick something. It never spread past France. The difference now is money. Under the old subscriber-only model, extra watch time did not add a cent. Netflix sells ads today, and a stream you cannot pause or skip is a stream where every commercial gets seen. The ad business is what actually drives this. Netflix pulled in about $1.5 billion from ads last year and told investors it wants roughly $3 billion in 2026. It broke the no-ads rule back in 2022, so this reversal has been building for a while. In the countries where the $8.99 ad plan exists, more than 60% of new members now choose it. A genre channel running around the clock is an easy way to run those ads against the same lean-back viewing that free services keep taking. Those free services grew huge while Netflix sat out. Tubi, Pluto TV, and the Roku Channel, all organized by genre, now pull 5.7% of US TV time as a category, more than any single broadcast network, in a market worth more than $10 billion. Fox just paid $22 billion for Roku. The company that spent 15 years insisting channels were dead is now working out how to rebuild them, on purpose.

@TheRonnieVShow Our Netflix numbers, filed in advance: revenue $12.64B, EPS about $0.83, next-quarter forecast near $13.0B. And +1.8M US/Canada subscribers... six times the usual estimate.

Good morning. This isn't just another Monday. This week could set the tone for the rest of July. Here's what I'm watching: • CPI tomorrow • Bank earnings begin this week with JPM, Goldman, Bank of America and others • TSMC and Netflix later this week • Oil moving higher after renewed Middle East tensions Those four things will likely determine where money flows next. I'm especially watching whether software and fintech continue showing relative strength while AI infrastructure digests recent gains. The goal isn't predicting every headline. It's identifying where capital continues to rotate. Market → Sector → Stock.

@FactSet Netflix stopped reporting subscriber numbers in 2024, so Wall Street guesses. The current guess: about 270,000 new US/Canada subscribers this quarter. We measure what households actually stream. Our estimate: about 1.8 million... six times higher. Posted before Thursday.

StreetAccount Update: $NFLX Netflix Q2 earnings preview; engagement trends have been worrisome, but most think related to seasonal weakness with recovery likely: • NFLX is scheduled to report Q2 results on 16-Jul after the close. FactSet consensus sees EPS of $0.79 on sales of $12.58B. • Commentary focused on likelihood of largely inline Q2 results and Q3 and FY guidance. Most discussions noted challenging engagement trends, but many also acknowledged competition from World Cup in the U.S. during Netflix's seasonally lightest content slate. The challenge that many continue to express concern about is the company's loss of audience for returning series, which would force management to find ways to both market and bolster perceived quality. Netflix's recent focus on short-form videos has some believing they will be a good source of incremental revenues but others thinking it is looking for ways to replace diminishing revenues. Finally, in spite of decline in headline CPMs in advertising, many think the ad tier has grown increasingly sticky, and that subscriber growth will be aided by NFLX's greater focus on sports and new types of content. #NFLX #Netflix #Q2Earnings #EarningsSeason #Streaming #Media #Entertainment #AudienceEngagement #ShortFormVideo #AdTier #SportsContent Gain immediate access to earnings insights with #StreetAccount: bit.ly/3xqrpo7

@THR The Street says people are watching Netflix less. But the number they point to compares this April to January, and January was huge because of the Stranger Things finale. Compare this April to LAST April and Netflix actually went up: 7.5% then, 7.8% now.

Netflix Earnings Preview: Is the Stock an Ad Growth or an Engagement Challenge Story? hollywoodreporter.com/business/busin…

The full report, with methodology, backtest, and the public scorecard: peerlogix.com/research/nflx-… PeerLogix Research.

Every number above was locked before Thursday's print, and we grade ourselves in public... win or lose. We make no call on the stock itself. Research, not investment advice.

The street expects $NFLX to add ~270,000 US/Canada subscribers this quarter. Our model, tested against eight years of Netflix's real prints, reads ~1.8 million... six times more, and accelerating for a year and a half. Netflix reports Thursday. Grade us Friday.

The resurrection is contagious: the original 1992 X-Men cartoon just doubled its June demand too, peaking the same day '97 did. Five more Wednesdays of episodes through August 12. On a weekly release, the premiere isn't the peak... the staircase is.

Premieres spike, then fade. This one built a staircase. Nine days without losing ground took it from #114 to #22; it sits at #23 into the weekend. And its biggest demand day wasn't the premiere... the Episode 4 drop alone topped the entire three-episode opening.

X-MEN '97 is the #23 show in America. Two weeks ago it was invisible: off the demand board for 13 months, zero measurable demand on 66 of its final 76 days. Its first week back: outside the top 500 to #29. The biggest leap into the top 30 any returning show has ever made.