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william
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william
@willllliam
clicking various buttons for a living
Katılım Ekim 2015
3.2K Takip Edilen25K Takipçiler
william retweetledi
william retweetledi
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Chud is everything that he accuses black people to be. He is a violent criminal thug that abandoned his kid to terrorize society.
He deserves the maximum.
Dexerto@Dexerto
Streamer ChudTheBuilder will be sentenced to 56 years in prison if he's convicted on all counts and receives the maximum penalties
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Oh dear it appears Thorchain was running tss-lib that was like 3 years and 2+ major security releases behind lmaooooooooooollllll fucking fools
github.com/bnb-chain/tss-…
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This is terrifying @Ledger.
I just received a physical scam letter at my home address in Italy 🇮🇹
How the hell do scammers have access to the addresses of Ledger users? This goes way beyond phishing emails now.
People’s safety is literally at risk.

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william retweetledi
william retweetledi

Jay Powell faced a pandemic that nearly broke markets, the worst inflation in 40 years, and a sustained presidential assault on Fed independence.
Few Fed chairs have faced one of those. He faced all three.
A reflection on what he leaves behind: wsj.com/economy/centra…
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@kernow_bull @plur_daddy the main counterargument to this as I see it would be yields, he's taco'd before on yields and the situation after cpi/ppi prints now looks worse than it has all year. even if he isn't that worried about oil, this should be enough to get him to be more reasonable on a china deal
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@plur_daddy My most simplistic of views:
> First meeting of four over the next twelve months
> Trump *always* shoots for the moon as his first step
> What says he gives anything away this time?
The assumption is he cares about Hormuz, with USA selling lots of oil, etc, he maybe doesn't?
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Can Trump save the day on Iran with a China deal?
Posting about geopolitics is the easiest way to instantly look like a moron but I will throw out a highly bullish scenario that has been coalescing for me.
1. Over the weekend we got a surprisingly hardline counter from Iran, seemingly walking back weeks of progress in the talks. This was chalked up to the split camps with Iran (IRGC vs. civilian gov). What if this was Iran doing China's bidding, to maximize Xi's leverage into the talks? The timing is uncanny. If I were China, this is exactly what I would do. There was no cost to Iran since clearly there were not going to be any attacks right before the Xi summit.
2. Yesterday we got an article in Reuters that the US and China have agreed that transit through Hormuz should be free and open. Most notably, the US statement was affirmed by the Chinese. This is strong signal on what the Chinese are thinking.
3. What do the Chinese want? You can make a strong case either way. The bearish view is that China wants Iran to control Hormuz because then they have de facto control over it. They can use that to isolate countries diplomatically. Iran controlling Hormuz represents a massive weakening of the US naval guarantee and imperial prestige. And if it spirals out into a full on ground war, that massively sucks US resources and opens up The bullish view is that China needs the spice to flow, and anything that negatively impacts global growth is bad for them as the world's factory. The damage to the US interests has already been done but a spiraling energy crisis could get very bad for China. Also Iran's geopolitical priorities (such as isolating Israel) are different from China's.
4. Overall I've come to the conclusion that China prefers for Hormuz to be open and free, but they want to max extract from Trump in exchange for helping out. Xi gets to tout a big diplomatic win. Of course China doesn't have infinite leverage over Iran, but they have meaningful influence given they are the main buyer of their crude oil and thus the source of funds, and also of key goods and military hardware, and other forms of support.
5. You can see the contours of a deal here. China helps with Iran, and throws in other token issues like rare earths. US drops tariffs (which have been weakened by the SCOTUS anyways), gives them NVDA chips, and perhaps some subtle shifts on Taiwan. Note that Jensen was not going on the trip, and then was added at the last minute. This is signal that his presence was specifically requested by China.
6. If this deal comes together, we have the combination of 3 bullish events for the equity index at once. We have Hormuz reopening. We have tariffs being dropped. We have NVDA expanding sales into China. Put the geopolitics of the AI race aside, because clearly this is a massive own goal from that perspective, but I'm focusing on how the market is going to respond. This is a scenario, not a certainty, but there is a lot of logic to it. It's a win-win on both sides. It would be tremendously bullish.
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@plur_daddy great summary, have been thinking about this a lot as well and I see it in a similar way
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genuinely what the fuck are we even doing man
First Squawk@FirstSquawk
US HOUSE FINANCIAL SERVICES COMMITTEE IS TAKING UP A BILL THAT AMENDS FEDERAL RESERVE ACT TO ELIMINATE THE DUAL MANDATE; FOCUS ONLY ON PRICE STABILITY - WSJ
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