Huge thanks to @giselleruhiyyih for quoting me saying something happy for once! Salud indeed!
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Will Todman
3.6K posts
Will Todman
@WillTodman
Chief of Staff @CSISGeopolitics, senior fellow @CSISMidEast, and host of State of Play. Conflict, governance, and displacement in the MENA region. Views my own.
Washington, DC Katılım Ekim 2011
1.3K Takip Edilen1.9K Takipçiler
Will Todman retweetledi
The Pentagon is sending three warships and thousands of additional Marines to the Middle East, even as President Trump insists he won’t put American boots on the ground in Iran, according to U.S. officials. wsj.com/livecoverage/i…
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"Many of the options President Trump has to increase pressure on Iran would send energy prices even higher, including attempting to seize Kharg Island or striking Iran’s energy production infrastructure," I said to @business bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
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Will Todman retweetledi
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Will Todman retweetledi
Are Russia and China gaining or losing from the war with Iran? In a new episode of State of Play, @CSISGeopolitics experts @MSnegovaya and Bonny Lin join @WillTodman to unpack these dynamics.
Listen here: csis.org/podcasts/state…
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Will Todman retweetledi
Reporting regarding the United States encouraging Syria to send forces into Lebanon is false and inaccurate.
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Until now, the new Syrian government has been careful not to confront Hezbollah. But now, the United States is encouraging Syria to take action against Hezbollah in Lebanon, effectively bringing Sharaa into concert with Israel. reuters.com/business/aeros…
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For more context on the breaking @nytimes story about the Trump administration's efforts to oust the Cuban president and work with the Castro family, listen to @RyanBergPhD and Carrie Filipetti of @VandenbergCo on the recent State of Play episode: youtube.com/watch?v=BVXmkW…
YouTube
Edward Wong@ewong
NEW from @nytimes: The Trump administration is seeking to oust the president of Cuba, Miguel Díaz-Canel, in its talks with Cuban political leaders. The Americans plan to allow the Castro family to keep power if they agree to economic changes, creating a client state for the US.
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Will Todman retweetledi
As the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran enters its third week, global attention is shifting back to the Middle East. What does the conflict mean for Russia and China?
Higher energy prices could bolster Russia’s war economy, while Beijing may find opportunities to expand influence elsewhere. But both also face risks, from instability in energy supplies to the weakening of key regional partners.
Tune in for the new episode of State of Play to discuss whether Moscow and Beijing are ultimately gaining or losing from the conflict w/Bonny Lin, @WillTodman and me! @CSISEREP, @ChinaPowerCSIS and @CSISGeopolitics
csis.org/events/russia-…
youtube.com/watch?v=_1vVF1…
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Will Todman retweetledi
Over the last 15 months, Syria's interim president, Ahmed al-Sharaa, has pursued a strategy of diplomatic balancing, territorial consolidation, and investment-led economic recovery, notes @CSISMidEast.
But how does war in Iran threaten Syria's recovery? csis.org/analysis/war-i…
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Will Todman retweetledi
Will Iranians Overthrow Their Government in the Midst of War? My quick take for @CSIS youtube.com/shorts/S7e5k-A…
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106,732 Syrians have crossed the border from Lebanon to Syria since March 2. That accounts for 7% of the estimated 1.5m Syrians who have returned from other countries since the fall of Assad in Dec. 2024. reliefweb.int/report/syrian-…
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Will Todman retweetledi
Climbing death toll ... #Lebanon's health ministry said Israeli strikes have killed 826 people, including 65 women and 106 children, since the start of the latest confrontation between Israel and Hezbollah - 2,009 wounded.
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Grateful to @ChrisMurphyCT for giving my piece a boost. Far few people are talking about what this war means for Syria’s recovery in the longer term.
Chris Murphy 🟧@ChrisMurphyCT
7/ Other potential flash points lurk. So far, the Houthis in Yemen have been relatively quiet. Probably not for long. They can project power into the Red Sea. For Syria, this is the worst time for Trump to strike Iran. Syria could explode again. csis.org/analysis/war-i…
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Will Todman retweetledi
7/ Other potential flash points lurk. So far, the Houthis in Yemen have been relatively quiet. Probably not for long. They can project power into the Red Sea.
For Syria, this is the worst time for Trump to strike Iran. Syria could explode again. csis.org/analysis/war-i…
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Will Todman retweetledi
I don’t want to be the bearer of bad news, but despite statements from the U.S. President, Iran will not surrender and will not allow completely free passage through the Strait of Hormuz. The reason is simple: Tehran understands very well that this is one of its greatest strategic leverage points in a war.
If the U.S. strikes major oil facilities on Kharg Island or elsewhere, Iran will likely escalate across the Gulf.
This reflects a recurring misunderstanding in Washington about how Iran’s leadership thinks. Iran sees itself as fighting a war of survival, and in such a situation it will rely heavily on its asymmetric capabilities — including the threat of disrupting the Strait of Hormuz.
Even heavier bombing and stronger threats are unlikely to change the leadership’s calculus. From their perspective, pressure on global energy markets is precisely the mechanism that can push Washington toward ending the fighting.
As long as the U.S. expands the conflict, the most immediate effect will likely be higher oil prices — not necessarily regime collapse. Strikes like those reported last night on Kharg are unlikely, by themselves, to change that reality.
#iran
Barak Ravid@BarakRavid
🚨🚨🚨Trump on Truth Social: Moments ago, at my direction, the United States Central Command executed one of the most powerful bombing raids in the History of the Middle East, and totally obliterated every MILITARY target in Iran’s crown jewel, Kharg Island. Our Weapons are the most powerful and sophisticated that the World has ever known but, for reasons of decency, I have chosen NOT to wipe out the Oil Infrastructure on the Island. However, should Iran, or anyone else, do anything to interfere with the Free and Safe Passage of Ships through the Strait of Hormuz, I will immediately reconsider this decision. During my First Term, and currently, I rebuilt our Military into the Most Lethal, Powerful, and Effective Force, by far, anywhere in the World. Iran has NO ability to defend anything that we want to attack — There is nothing they can do about it! Iran will NEVER have a nuclear weapon, nor will it have the ability to threaten the United States of America, the Middle East or, for that matter, the World! Iran’s Military, and all others involved with this Terrorist Regime, would be wise to lay down their arms, and save what’s left of their country, which isn’t much! Thank you for your attention to this matter. President DONALD J. TRUMP
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Will Todman retweetledi
"For now, the direct impact of the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran on Syria has been limited," writes @CSISMidEast expert @WillTodman. "Yet the conflict is quietly testing the foundations of Syria’s recovery strategy."
Read more: csis.org/analysis/war-i…
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Will Todman retweetledi
Following President Trump's remarks that the Cuban government will fall “pretty soon” and that “it may not be a friendly takeover," @RyanBergPhD and Carrie Filipetti join @WillTodman to discuss the president’s goals in Cuba.
Listen: youtube.com/watch?v=BVXmkW…
YouTube
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Will Todman retweetledi
Americas Program Director @RyanBergPhD joins Carrie Filipetti, former Deputy Assistant Secretary for Cuba, and @CSISGeopolitics @WillTodman to discuss President Trump’s goals in Cuba, his range of options, and the risks and benefits of regime change: csis.org/podcasts/state…
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The greatest threat to Syria may lie in the war’s long-term trajectory. For Sharaa, a stalemate would be the worst possible outcome. His recovery strategy requires a stable region that encourages investment and economic integration. csis.org/analysis/war-i…
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