wisdominthecage

A comprehensive list of european stocks you need to watch: $LPK LPKF $ALESE ENTECH $AMS OSRAM $NXT NEXT GEO $AGP ALTEA GREEN $ALLOG $ALSEM SEMCO $XFAB $ALKAL KALRAY $MRN MERSEN $4X0 STEYR $ACUVI $M7U NYNOMIC $ENSI ENSILICA $ALSEC $ALENO ENOGIA Which stocks would you add?

I just started a small position with $MELE MELEXIS, probably at its local top. I do believe it’s the indispensable physical "nervous system" for both the 800V electrification megatrend and AI data center thermal management. Will buy a starter then deep dive now.

Reposting for those new to the story. DMs open for questions. Thank you for your attention to this matter.

26 Q1 $LPKF 실적 발표 매출 €17.1M, -32.4% YoY Solar 매출 €10.6M → €1.3M로 사실상 증발 Adjusted EBIT 마진 -33.3% (전년 -13.5%) FCF -€7.6M (전년 €0.0M) 현금 €10.0M → €5.8M, 한 분기에 -42% 신규수주 €24.1M, Book-to-bill 1.4 수주잔고 €34.1M (전년 동기 €46.1M) 세그먼트별 매출 Development €6.2M (전년 €5.7M), Adj. EBIT +€0.2M 흑자전환 Electronics €5.5M (전년 €5.6M) Welding €4.1M (전년 €3.4M) Solar €1.3M (전년 €10.6M) 자기자본비율 67.8% 신디케이트론 €25M + 보증 €7.5M, 2028년 12월까지 연장 2026 가이던스 매출 €105–120M Adjusted EBIT 마진 -3.0% ~ +4.5% 구조조정 비용 매출의 3-4% Advanced Semicon Packaging volume order는 가이던스 미포함 LIDE 주요 반도체 고객사 배치 + follow-on 수주 확보 글래스 패키지 싱귤레이션 다층 글래스 스택 레이저 본딩 신규 공정 개발 중 CPO on glass 통합 개발 중 중국 특허 침해 업체 대상 첫 특허 소송 제기 2028년까지 그룹 두 자릿수 EBIT 마진 목표 튀엇 ㅋㅋㅋㅋㅋㅋ

While I’m very happy with my $SOI position in the long-term account (entered around €40, now at €96), the speed of the move has been surprising. It also brings back the moment beginning this year when conviction was low across the board—I hesitated during the pre-earnings dip and ended up cutting a large position for only a modest gain (from 23-32 or so). In hindsight, that alone could have made the year. That said, a win is still a win.

$LPK / $LPKFF earnings are out. Seeing a lot of very dumb commentary on X. If you're wondering how to analyze qualification-cycle players, it's the same as $AEHR. Nobody cares about current earnings unless there's something extremely bad. If your revenue declines -8M euros before any volume ramp, it doesn't mean anything. The only reason why LPKF is a long anyway is 2027 LIDE glass core substrate mass production. Main thing to look at is earnings call in 2 hours not current financials and indication of high volume production + customers. People made this same mistake with $AEHR selling off on previous financials instead of listening to the call.

The $MSFT earnings did all I needed; pop to $440 to unload that last remaining red lot in the green. Now that’s done, I’m totally down for taking this back to 350s. I’d even be likely to average up in the 370-380s. Bring it!

Nexans $NEX mit solidem Start im Q1/26 , inkl. Republic Wire Übernahme in den US, steigener Aktivität in Data Centern und Aufhellung der Lage in Frankreich, Italien und Spanien.

I agree with the discipline of running the math on $LPK / LPKF, but I’m not convinced by the “1.5x max” conclusion. The €150M glass revenue / 20% EBIT margin / 25x EBIT framework is too static in my view. If LIDE becomes a real production bottleneck for glass core substrates, the market will likely not value it as a mature standalone industrial segment. It would re-rate $LPK as an advanced packaging equipment platform. A few points: 1. Legacy business is not worth zero. Even a modestly profitable €100M+ core business adds value. 2. A proven glass platform would not just be “equipment sales”. It could include installed base service revenue, process know-how, platform upsell, foundry/prototyping services, and potentially additional modules like Direct Write / Ablate / Bond. 3. If multiple substrate makers, OSATs, or semiconductor customers move from pilot to production, the market may price forward capacity expansion before the full revenue shows up. 4. The right upside case is not “€150M glass revenue × 25x EBIT”. The real bull case is whether $LPK becomes one of the few bottleneck equipment suppliers in a new advanced packaging architecture. Which many believe will be the case. My take: The 10x narrative might be too aggressive as a base case. But “1.5x max” is too conservative if LIDE truly scales. With my position added low 10, I am looking for another 2–4x from here. Elements to watch are order conversion, margin expansion, recurring revenue, and whether glass substrates move from optional narrative to production necessity.

$MRN is one that not many people talking about. Maybe because people are still accumulating and wanting to keep it for them at the moment? I am also half way in the building of a position…

I recommend that everyone, especially with stocks where there’s a lot of writing and very little math, run a few scenarios for the future. Let’s take LPKF. Mega bull scenario for glass revenue (plateau from 2029–2030): LIDE equipment: 8 to 12 major customers scale into mass production, each needing 5 to 15 systems. At 20 to 40 new systems annually and €1.5 to 2.5M ASP, that’s €40 to 80M. Platform upsell (NeXaR Ablate, Bond, Direct Write): 2 to 3 additional systems per customer, adding €15 to 30M. Foundry services for smaller customers (quantum computing, MEMS, prototyping): €10 to 20M, limited by site capacity. Recurring revenue from an installed base of 80 to 150 systems (service, spare parts, upgrades): industry standard is 5 to 10% of installed value annually, so €10 to 25M. CPO/waveguide equipment, if adopted from 2028 to 2029: 5 to 10 Direct Write systems at €2 to 3M ASP, so €10 to 30M. Mega bull total: €85 to 185M annually from glass by 2030, a doubling of today’s total revenue, from the glass business alone, on top of the legacy business. What that means for valuation: At €150M glass revenue, 20% EBIT margin and 25x EBIT multiple, both optimistic, the glass business alone would be worth ~€750M. With the market cap already at ~€470M today, I don’t see 10x potential here. Even in this wildly optimistic mega bull scenario, we’re looking at a 1.5x at most. And that assumes every single optimistic assumption plays out simultaneously.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ Does anyone have an even more optimistic revenue forecast they’d like to share and walk me through? I’d be happy to take a look and potentially revise my assessment.

This is true. A few of bank analysts got passive aggressive when I called out $SOI back at $40 and it rose 125% since then. Same with $SIVE and it’s risen a few hundred percent (and keeps going up) But these same institutions are the one buying afterward on $IQE to $AXTI. Usually institutions have silent accumulation periods blocks over months to not raise the price + accumulate the float off retail. Then tell retail investors after it’s risen a lot and they own 5% of the company. But if markets price that in a lot faster, institutions are forced to buy a lot higher. Which is basically frontrunning institutions on supercycle names.