The Money Squirrel

One of the most important macro analyst alive was asked what she fears most in markets right now. Her answer wasn't inflation or private credit but it was about the Iran war. As of late February 2026, the strait of hormuz effectively closed. Tanker traffic collapsed more than 90%, Gulf oil exports fell 60% and a historical daily average of 138 ships became one in a single week. The IEA called it the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market and brent crude crossed $100 a barrel. This is not just an oil crisis. The strait carries 30% of globally traded fertilizers, 34% of global urea trade, natural gas is 80% of nitrogen fertilizer production costs. When LNG stops flowing, food production starts breaking. Fertilizer supply chains have already contracted 33% and annual Gulf urea exports of 22 million tons have halted. US farmers are seeing fertilizer prices up 25% going into planting season. The Fed cannot print fertilizer. Qatar's Ras Laffan LNG terminal was struck, Taiwan sources one-third of its electricity from Middle Eastern energy. That directly threatens global semiconductor productiom, the same supply chain the world spent four years rebuilding. Helium, sulfur, aluminum, petrochemicals, plastics are all disrupted. Alden described the global economy as an upside-down pyramid. The wide top is finance, services, and technology and the tiny point at the bottom is raw materials, energy. A financial crisis hits the top of the pyramid but this hits the bottom.

Accept Cameron to Sunak betrayed us at every turn but the reality is that a Labour-Green-Lib Dem offering will be too strong for Reform to defeat on their own. When it comes to picking candidates Farage can force out Tories lefties like Dr Ben Spencer, my useless MP for Weybridge and Runnymede. Unite the Right.

Reeves NOW appears to be supporting OUR drilling the North Sea rather than importing oil and gas, not least because of the tax revenue Whilst the war is obviously the prime catalyst, the cost of Government debt and state of the bond market is likely also a factor Wake up time

I use a couple of ‘mind games’ as well Woody, I too use percentages AND I constantly take a very conservative view of my P/F’s value My view is that the ‘real’ value of my holdings isn’t anywhere near the latest all time high BUT much lower, somewhere around the 200 day m/a