Jeff660

@JackAdams66 Ww are going down my friend 😭

on track.

@JackAdams66 Damn..

@xxJeff660 Yes

How it goes - bitcoin:native 126K into 68K (done) from there into 83K (almost done) back towards 70K finally into 90k & 107K (short term top) Eventually bringing price gradually towards $55,000 where a new cycle will start in 2028.

@JackAdams66 Jack please let us know when you will start considering shorting btc

Check the chart now. $92 hit this morning. Who else is doing this back to back. #Oil

@DefiWimar Stop with fake news

🚨 BREAKING IRAN BOMBS A U.S. WARSHIP. IRAN BOMBS THE UAE. STRAIT OF HORMUZ IS FULLY CLOSED. ISRAEL IS PLANNING STRIKES ON IRAN. OIL IS BACK AT $120 THIS IS THE BEGINNING OF THE END...

@ChartingBit Posso fare una domanda na gnùrant? Ma se consideriamo tutti i btc in wallet morti, smarriti, quelli di satoshi, quelli di saylor e blackrock, i vari istituzionali, i miners e tutti i btc hodlers sino alla morte, come potrebbe scendere fino a 31k il prezzo?

A maggio verrà incaricato il nuovo presidente della FED. Nella storia di Bitcoin è successo altre 3 volte, dopo le quali è sempre calato in media del -74.88% Le prime due quasi all'inzio del bear market, l'ultima a metà, esattamente come ora. Nel 2022 c'è stato un calo ulteriore del -59%, dai prezzi attuali -se dovesse ripetersi lo stesso anche oggi- significherebbe arrivare a circa 31.5k Stessa zona di prezzo che coincide con il bottom calcolato in proporzione ai drawdown di tutti i precedenti bear market... È una bella coincidenza, ma niente di più purtroppo. In ogni caso Bitcoin resta ancora in bear market per ora, ergo occhio a escludere a priori questi scenario!

@0xReflection Anything belo 60k

What $BTC price would convince you the bottom is already in?

@duonine @aave lesson is: just buy bitcoin and put it on a ledger. Defi and Cefi are too risky

🚨 I don't think people realize how bad things are at @aave right now. All core markets are at 100% utilization, that includes $3 bil in USDT and $2 bil in USDC stuck! That means you CAN'T WITHDRAW your money! A long post on why and how we ended up here. When the rsETH exploit happened and AAVE incurred bad debt, whales like Justin Sun, MEXC exchange, and others immediately withdrew billions from AAVE. This instantly drained all available liquidity in key core markets like ETH, USDT, USDC and so on. Those first to withdraw got out, laggers got trapped. Initially, the ETH market hit 100% utilization, meaning you could not withdraw your ETH from AAVE. Worse, this also means the protocol can't process ETH liquidations should ETH price fall/crash. If you can't sell any ETH, you can't liquidate to cover debt obligations. That means the risk of more bad debt incurred by AAVE is increasing the longer its markets remain stuck. Nevertheless, users can still sell at a minor loss the aETHwETH tokens on Uniswap or similar aggregators. That exit door is the last one remaining for ETH depositors on AAVE. The same cannot be said by depositors of USDT and USDC. They are stuck. That's because AAVE lost over $6 billion in liquidity in the past 24h. As whales took out their money, USDT and USDC also hit 100% utilization. These markets are now also stuck with money locked. Panic is spreading and desperate times call for desperate measures. Some users decided to borrow against USDT/USDC and exit via other markets at a 10-25% loss (90-75% LTV). Basically you borrow GHO/DAI/USDe against your locked USDT/C. But as more liquidity leaves AAVE, more markets get to 100% utilization and get locked/stuck due to low liquidity. This is quickly cascading across all available markets. Luckily the crypto market was rather flat today so liquidation risks were marginal, but if things change there are billions in stablecoins and other assets locked on AAVE that can't process liquidations = more bad debt for AAVE. If users or related protocols that are stuck need access to their money to prevent liquidations or other critical function, they have a huge problem on their hands. Plus, nobody wants to deposit (or provide liquidity) in these markets now since your ETH, BTC, USDC/T could be stuck there for who know how long. As soon as any available liquidity is made available, it is instantly taken out by bots fighting to get out. As I wrote this I saw 250k in liquidity on USDC vanish in seconds. Then there is the bad debt question. There's over $200 mil in bad debt incurred by AAVE via rsETH that's like a hot potato. Nobody knows who will eventually pay this bill. If you didn't remove your assets from AAVE, you risk receiving at least part of that bill in some form. Not having access to your money is part of that risk too. Contagion is also extremely high. Many protocols and apps rely on AAVE for their earn mechanics. These protocols and their users are stuck too and may be forced to incur bad debt with no fault of their own. October 10th was a CEX driven crash, this is a DeFi risk mitigation failure of epic proportions. AAVE should have never onboarded rsETH as a collateral asset, at least not to the size of hundreds of millions that allowed the hacker to walk away (i.e. borrow) over $200M in ETH after posting fake collateral. Rumors on X are saying rsETH was onboarded by AAVE due to a conflict of interest (lobbying) by a given service provider. If true, this is a major failure of its governance structure (nothing new). The folks at @KelpDAO who manage rsETH also have a tough decision to make on who will actually pay for the $200M exploit. AAVE users? L2 rsETH users? Everyone affected gets a haircut to account for the loss? The AAVE team and its founder, Stani, have been quiet for over 20h since the exploit after initially announcing the rsETH market freeze. They have a pretty big problem on their hands since the whole protocol is at risk right now. Trust is already lost as AAVE is bleeding billions in TVL to the level of hitting 100% utilization on all core markets. Maybe some key actors in the space will step in to provide liquidity to stabilize the markets on AAVE before this gets even worse. I got lucky to get out of AAVE early when I first saw this. I also removed all assets from DeFi and will not touch any protocol in the next few weeks. Too much risk for a few percentage points in yield. If you found this informative, like, share, and follow @duonine

@ChartingBit hanno strarotto le palle tutti. TUTTI. da una parte e dall'altra. ho voglia solo di chiudere tutto e andare a zappare la terra in silenzio

Curioso come Bitcoin si sia portato al limite superiore di questa struttura proprio durante l'euforia della falsa tregua in medio oriente. Punto esatto in cui poi, guarda caso, hanno iniziato a circolare le notizie sull'ulteriore escalation...

@i_am_i_777 @DefiWimar Exactly

@DefiWimar Fuck off this shit - literally everyone just go fuck off.

🚨 BREAKING THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ WON'T OPEN UNTIL THE END OF APRIL! PREDICTION MARKETS ARE PRICING IN ONLY A 23% CHANCE OF IT. THIS IS REALLY BAD FOR MARKETS...

@JackAdams66 Jack do you believe it's going to be a relief rally or we are going to new all time highs? I know probably it's a silly question..

New local high. Where are those bears.

@ChartMind Caro Marco resto dell'idea che è solo un relief rally

Bears in disbelief 🫢!

@RaminNasibov I can call you and describe you my life

Can someone recommend a movie that will emotionally destroy me?

@ChartingBit Tendenzialmente vai spot o future?

Dalle reazioni a questo ulteriore tentativo di recupero verso gli 80k una cosa è certa: La maggioranza non è ancora capitolata. Ovvero non si è ancora verificato uno degli eventi più importanti durante la formazione di un reale bottom. Detto questo, purtroppo non possiamo avere assicurazioni riguardo al fatto che debba necessariamente verificarsi. SE questo tentativo si trasforma in una conferma di ritorno in bull-trend settimanale allora semplicemente torno a cavalcare l'onda, altrimenti resto fuori. Business as usual🤷‍♂️

@DrProfitCrypto Agree

Bitcoin bulls became so desperate calling Bitcoin the new Oil Reserve. Usually I hear these pathetic claims at the exact top of each cycle, but now they try to lure you within a bear market, making you believe the bottom was in. Let the trap begin, make them believe it’s over!

@ChartingBit Io sono restato gran parte fuori dai mercati e non ho intenzione di entrare. A rischio di perdere gains. È un tiro ai dadi e non mi piace

Quello raggiunto stanotte è un compromesso fragile dell’ultimo minuto utile ad evitare il peggio economicamente e umanamente. In quanto tale però non è in alcun modo un'assicurazione che la situazione si sia definitivamente risolta. Il dubbio più grande resta la questione nucleare: Gli Iraniani vogliono il diritto di arricchire uranio, gli americani (insieme a Israele) vogliono limitarlo severamente o non concederglielo proprio. Se entro queste due settimane di tregua non si raggiunge un accordo soddisfacente soprattutto in questo ambito torniamo dritti dritti nella medesima condizione di prima. Buone notizie per ora, di cui immagino siamo tutti felici ma ecco, attenderei a cantare vittoria e soprattutto eviterei -come sempre saggio fare- di seguire ciecamente l'attuale euforia sui mercati.

@ChartingBit Adoro le tue analisi. A sensazione, che prezzo minimo credi tocchera btc nel 2026?

La possibilità che Bitcoin abbia già formato il bottom e torni a spingere dipende unicamente da cosa decideranno di fare i mercati tradizionali nelle prossime settimane. Il che è tutto dire considerato l'importante momento di crisi che stiamo vivendo e che Bitcoin -stando a come viene propagandato- dovrebbe invece essere un'ancora di salvataggio. Niente di nuovo sotto il sole in ogni caso...solo un'ennesima dimostrazione.

@ChartMind la macro è identica, la geopolitica al momento fa schifo. è manipolazione solita made in usa, voci già smentite tra l'altro dalla controparte iraniana. non ci sono motivi al momento per entrare in assets rischiosi...

Bitcoin's bottom is in! Nothing you can do about it !

@ChartingBit infatti gli idioti comprano quando la macro è identica

Ma non doveva scadere l'ultimatum e scatenarsi l'inferno riportandoli all'età della pietra?🤣🤣 L'unico scopo di questo continuo ping pong è controllare l'impatto del conflitto sui mercati.

@KillaXBT Why do you care?

If you don’t agree with my thoughts, analysis, bias, or plan... Respectfully, I couldn’t care less. Respect other perspectives, just don’t lose sight of your own. We’re in a free for all. For every winner, there’s a loser. I’ve been right for a year straight. Eventually, I’ll lose... but I win far more than I lose. Betting against me long term is a losing strategy. They tell me to be humble, but I’m not ignorant. I’m confident in myself, my plan, my thesis, just like any athlete in their field would be. If you’re not, your mentality is the problem. In trading, you’re either in control, or you’re being controlled, and if you lack confidence in your plan, mindset, and thesis, you’re already on the losing side. Don’t confuse ignorance with confidence.