Yoav
320 posts

Yoav
@y_yoav
I tweet about things I know nothing about. Expert super forecaster - usually wrong
New York, USA Katılım Eylül 2013
1.4K Takip Edilen142 Takipçiler

@eitanbender Depends on your view of utopia. All needs provided for, absolutely. Human fulfillment? Still up in the air where that will land.
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One thing that bothers me about a lot of the recent "AI abundance" discourse is that it quietly assumes two things that seem demonstrably false.
• Humans are good decision makers.
• Humans desperately want to create.
Both are false.
The future isn't everyone becoming a creator because AI freed them from work. Nor is it billions of people wielding AI as brilliant directors through the force of their superior judgment.
The more likely outcome is that AI creates, AI decides, and humans consume an ever-growing mountain of increasingly cheap goods and services.
Still abundance, but not the kind people are talking about.
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@johnloeber Looks a lot like the stories of dysfunction at Eskom in South Africa… not the right direction to be headed…
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I can’t stop thinking about the LA copper wire thefts.
For background: in LA, thieves have been stripping streetlights of their electrical wiring and selling it for scrap. It is amazingly destructive: for every $1 of wire they sell, the city has to spend $100-$1000 on repairs. Literally, the thief might make a couple hundred bucks, and the city has to spend six figures. (Oh and the streetlights are out, which may lead to traffic accidents or other problems.) It’s an extremely antisocial crime.
Astoundingly, the city seems unwilling to do something about this. A guy invented a better way to lock down streetlights — they didn’t want it. The idea of “look for the thieves and put them in jail” has been unpopular for reasons unclear to me. Proposed solutions, like making scrap yards record who sold them copper wiring, seem ineffective.
The most cynical explanation for this is that the incentives lead to crime: the money spent on repairs is primarily spent on local union labor. For them, this is great. There’s a whole industry for servicing these problems. And the city gets to say that it is working on fixing the issues. Up to some limit, the more of these issues, the better.
Everybody wins: the thieves win, the laborers win, the repair industry wins, certain politicians and candidates win. Well, the actual resident, the taxpayer — they lose, but what are you gonna do? Live with the lights off? Vote for the tough-on-crime candidate? Unthinkable.
You can look at this as a system that has degenerated into being a recursive loop that drains the resources of its citizens
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today's weather forecast is very funny:
"Showers and thunderstorms likely before 8am, then rain likely between 8am and 11am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between 11am and 1pm, then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms between 1pm and 2pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 61. West southwest wind around 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%."
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I don’t agree with @RandPaul on some things — but this really is a great idea. Deficit is one of the greatest challenges our generation will inherit. Time to act is now.
Rand Paul@RandPaul
The national debt just passed $39 trillion. My Six Penny Plan cuts six pennies out of every dollar Washington spends. Balanced budget in five years. If your family can live within its means, so can the federal government.
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