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Tomorrow, $14 billion in BTC options expire on Deribit.
Largest quarterly expiry of 2026. And nobody's talking about what happens next.
Max pain sits at $75K. BTC trades around $70K right now. That's a 7% gap begging to close.
Here's why that gap matters. Market makers who sold options need to hedge. The math literally pulls price toward $75K as expiry approaches. This effect works about 60% of the time on quarterly expiries.
Two scenarios play out:
Scenario 1: Gamma hedging pulls BTC toward $75K before Friday 08:00 UTC settlement. Price compresses. The real move starts after contracts clear.
Scenario 2: A macro catalyst breaks the script early. PCE inflation data drops the same day. Iran negotiations shift. Either event can overpower the options gravity.
This is not a normal expiry. Options settlement, inflation data, and geopolitical risk all stacking on the same 24-hour window.
What's your play? Long, short, or flat? Reply below.

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