@gothburz Lol sounds like my crypto "investments". I'm still not loosing money but I could have been a Dave and had a better ROI by simply investing in the S&P500.
I bought Rivian stock on IPO day. November 10, 2021. $172 a share. I bought 58 shares. That was $9,976. I remember the exact number because my girlfriend asked what I spent ten thousand dollars on and I said "the future of transportation."
She said "you drive a 2017 Civic."
I said "exactly."
$1,000 invested at IPO is now worth $149.06. I have that number memorized. I check it before coffee. I check it after coffee. I check it during meetings where I'm supposed to be listening. The number changes by pennies. The pennies matter to me now.
The thesis was simple. Rivian was the next Tesla. They had the Amazon delivery vans. They had the adventure truck. They had the factory in Normal, Illinois. I told people the factory was in a town called Normal. I thought that was meaningful. A sign. The future of transportation, built in a place called Normal.
The factory produced 24,337 vehicles in its first full year.
Tesla produced 1.8 million.
I called that "room to grow."
I have been through six theses on Rivian.
Thesis one: they're the next Tesla. (Stock dropped 40%.)
Thesis two: the Amazon vans are the real play. (Amazon cut the order.)
Thesis three: the R2 platform will be the mass-market breakthrough. (Delayed 18 months.)
Thesis four: the Georgia factory changes everything. (Paused indefinitely.)
Thesis five: Volkswagen's $5 billion investment validates the technology. (Stock kept falling.)
Thesis six: Uber robotaxis. This is the pivot.
Every time the stock drops, I find the new thesis. I don't look for it. It finds me. I open Reddit. I open the Rivian subreddit. Someone has written a post titled "Why this is actually bullish." It has 400 upvotes. I read it. I agree with it. I was going to agree with it before I read it. The agreement is the point. The DD is the prayer.
My cost basis is $172. The stock is $14.06. I am down 91.8%.
I could have bought a used Rivian R1T with the money I've lost on Rivian stock. I have not done the math on this. I'm doing it now. Yes. I could have bought one. A 2022 with 30,000 miles. I would have the truck AND the remaining money.
I drive a 2017 Civic.
My coworker Dave bought index funds. Dave is up 34% over the same period. Dave brings a sad lunch to work every day. Turkey sandwich. Same sandwich. Dave will retire at 65 with a comfortable nest egg and a lifetime of turkey sandwiches and he will never know what it felt like to be early.
I am early.
I have been early for four and a half years.
At some point early and wrong have the same return on investment. But they feel different. Wrong feels like a mistake. Early feels like a strategy.
I feel like a strategy.
The Uber partnership was announced Tuesday. I texted three people. One was my brother. One was a guy from the Rivian subreddit whose real name I don't know. One was my girlfriend. My ex-girlfriend. She stopped asking about Rivian in 2023. She stopped asking about anything in 2024.
The stock jumped 10%. It gave half back the same day. But for eleven minutes I was only down 81% instead of 85%. I called that momentum. I took a screenshot. I still have the screenshot.
Rivian will build robotaxis for Uber. Rivian has not built a profitable vehicle for anyone. Rivian lost $38,784 on every vehicle it delivered last year. That's not my number. That's their 10-K. But I don't think about it that way. I think about it as investment in scale.
Scale means you lose money faster until you don't.
Uber needs thousands of autonomous vehicles. Rivian needs to not go bankrupt before 2027. These are complementary needs. That's a partnership. That's synergy. That's the pivot.
Dave asked me yesterday how much I'm down.
I said "I'm long-term."
He said "it's been four years."
I said "Tesla was down 80% once."
He said "Tesla was also profitable once."
Dave went back to his sandwich.
Dave doesn't understand pivots.
I bought more shares this morning.
This is the pivot.
The era of getting richer by holding assets is coming to an end.
The future will be dominated by people who get richer by providing real utility to the real world.
Last quarter I rolled out Microsoft Copilot to 4,000 employees.
$30 per seat per month.
$1.4 million annually.
I called it "digital transformation."
The board loved that phrase.
They approved it in eleven minutes.
No one asked what it would actually do.
Including me.
I told everyone it would "10x productivity."
That's not a real number.
But it sounds like one.
HR asked how we'd measure the 10x.
I said we'd "leverage analytics dashboards."
They stopped asking.
Three months later I checked the usage reports.
47 people had opened it.
12 had used it more than once.
One of them was me.
I used it to summarize an email I could have read in 30 seconds.
It took 45 seconds.
Plus the time it took to fix the hallucinations.
But I called it a "pilot success."
Success means the pilot didn't visibly fail.
The CFO asked about ROI.
I showed him a graph.
The graph went up and to the right.
It measured "AI enablement."
I made that metric up.
He nodded approvingly.
We're "AI-enabled" now.
I don't know what that means.
But it's in our investor deck.
A senior developer asked why we didn't use Claude or ChatGPT.
I said we needed "enterprise-grade security."
He asked what that meant.
I said "compliance."
He asked which compliance.
I said "all of them."
He looked skeptical.
I scheduled him for a "career development conversation."
He stopped asking questions.
Microsoft sent a case study team.
They wanted to feature us as a success story.
I told them we "saved 40,000 hours."
I calculated that number by multiplying employees by a number I made up.
They didn't verify it.
They never do.
Now we're on Microsoft's website.
"Global enterprise achieves 40,000 hours of productivity gains with Copilot."
The CEO shared it on LinkedIn.
He got 3,000 likes.
He's never used Copilot.
None of the executives have.
We have an exemption.
"Strategic focus requires minimal digital distraction."
I wrote that policy.
The licenses renew next month.
I'm requesting an expansion.
5,000 more seats.
We haven't used the first 4,000.
But this time we'll "drive adoption."
Adoption means mandatory training.
Training means a 45-minute webinar no one watches.
But completion will be tracked.
Completion is a metric.
Metrics go in dashboards.
Dashboards go in board presentations.
Board presentations get me promoted.
I'll be SVP by Q3.
I still don't know what Copilot does.
But I know what it's for.
It's for showing we're "investing in AI."
Investment means spending.
Spending means commitment.
Commitment means we're serious about the future.
The future is whatever I say it is.
As long as the graph goes up and to the right.
Hired an employee
He started off great for 18 months
Then asked to miss work for a day
Said his "sister was getting married" and he needed to cut out at noon on Friday
Uh, sure dude. We've all tried that excuse before.
I denied his PTO request.
A few months later, he found a new job and left.
I was relieved.
Dodge a major bullet there. No doubt he was about to request another day off for a "grandparent's funeral" within a year or two.
Dear Satoshi @CsTominaga,
You are our leader. Because you are Satoshi Nakamoto💯
Your fans believe you still have plenty of BTC
Trade it all for Bitcoin BSV and turn the tables once and for all.
Bitcoin is more valuable than BTC
And only you, our leader, can do that💪
#BSV
@mohrt I was testing this on my phone with the brave browser (my default) and I didnt get any prompts. And no, I didn't have a wallet installed, I assumed this site would guide me through the process.
@yobrewster Many questions here. 1) do you have the metanet wallet installed and running? 2) did you get the metanet prompts for funding? 3) what does the browser error console look like?
I have uploaded a 200k file and it took longer but worked ok.
Have a look at dropblocks.org, DropBlocks is a BSV file storage system. Immutable file provenance on the blockchain, and sharable links. BRC100 compliant. It requires a BRC100 wallet such as Metanet Desktop. Let me know how it goes. 😎
@IAMFUTUREIPV6@grok@elonmusk Not sure if anything will still make a difference for BSV. Any other coin would be buzzing with this type of news, while BSV is at an all-time low.
💥💥💥💥💥💥💥💥💥💥💥💥
JUST IN : #BSV Teranode Testnet just went live on the BSV blockchain !
It’s the first public blockchain ready to replace legacy systems like Visa or SWIFT for everyday commerce.
This is what @grok said in the app ! Go and take a look .
@elonmusk
👇👇
@BSV_ist_Bitcoin Although BSV might be the real Bitcoin, it will never be portrayed as such even if the tech is superior. This entire industry is a popularity contest, and someone claiming to be the creator made sure we're the unpopular kid in town.
The BSV community’s extremism is its biggest risk: exchanges called evil, price hopes cursed, even holding BSV seen as greed. Truth taken too far became fundamentalism, resulting in hypocrasy. BSV is Bitcoin with real tech, yet risks rejection unless this mindset shifts.
@MSkieller At the end of this cycle, I'm assuming BSV will drop by 85% like pretty every other coin, so it's probably safer to wait and buy back at $5.
@charliekirk11 We had roofers work for nearly 6 months in our town after a bad hail storm. While their bosses might be white, the ppl doing the job were Mexicans. No doubt, there are exceptions, but that's the reality, even in a town where nearly everyone is white.