Piggy

A Deeply Concerning Chart for Stocks youtube.com/watch?v=lL5f-4…

@astronomer_zero If you exit, are you exiting 100% of your longs?

@krugman87 pls elaborate

. $ETH has the chance to do something crazy here 👀

Longed some stbl, leaving lots of room looking to add other positions if we get another mini end of month dip or smth Think it’s hard to be bearish near time frame with those weeklies on majors and heading into October Want to see eth hold 4K sol around 200 btc 107.5

Recap of the past 2 weeks : - Weak majors despite stocks+gold ATH. $BTC pushed to $118k after FOMC (25bps rate cut), but then collapsed back to $109k. $ETH underperformed even more and went below $4k. - CZ came back and pushed $ASTER hard : 25x in 4 days. Perp DEX szn : $AVNT $ORDER $APEX $SNX BSC szn : $BNB (crossed $1000) $TST $TUT $HEMI - $XPL TGE was a massive success : 2X in a day, ATH at $16bn FDV so far. - DAT mania marking tops on several coins : $SOL $AVAX $WLD $FORD has deployed $1.6bn into SOL, which is now down from -20% from the $250 local top. - $IP pump (+30%) and dump (-50%) after KBW and the PINKFONG fiasco - The 3 cycle juggernauts have been trading super strong until mid-September but heavily underperforming since then : $HYPE $PUMP $ENA - A few mid/large caps noticeably strong : $KAITO $MNT $ZRO $ETHFI $EIGEN - Several new coins launched : $STBL (4x to $6bn FDV ATH...), $0G (squeeze to $7bn FDV), $LINEA, $BARD

@krugman87 Genuine question, do you think btc has more chance of reaching 10,000 first then 1,000,000 USD?

Bitcoin will die from its unsustainable security model long before quantum becomes a risk.

Never close a winner early to cover a loss. It's a short term feel-good move, but prevents you from letting your edge work in your favor over the long run.

@krugman87 isn’t this a bit signal? meaning a good time to buy now?

I hope the TCo's got their ATM buys in because it sounds like they'll no longer be able to just perpetually dump on their shareholders anymore without the shareholders permission. Honestly a good thing, and moves these vehicles into more of a DAO-like state, giving holders somewhat of a voice.

@krugman87 @Anomico5 do you see it going up anytime soon, or eventually going back to where it once was

@Anomico5 😂🤝

Where are all of my TCo hecklers from just 1 month ago? I bet they're all just busy picking out the color of their lambo.

can't tell it from the timeline but ETH is basically sitting where it was 1, 2 and 3 weeks ago, just chilling below ATH's. I dont feel very strongly on if it will blast to new highs straightaway or pull back first then new highs. I do believe 2 things though: 1) there is no new high if BTC doesnt hold support and 2) if eth pulls back then alts are going to nuke hard. In fact most alts have been bleeding even though ETH is pretty much flat.

But just a few weeks ago the TCo experts assured me in no uncertain terms that this was impossible

@Empyrean2727 @alCamel77 Hard to set and forget now with prices so inflated, would stack cash, set aside small port to learn lev trade if one was so inclined, and wait for next bear to start slamming into The dca thing is only bad when someone is buying peaks which is unfortunately common for retail

You somewhat have to play differently if you have less, but that feeling of immense pressure to “catch up” or “make it” is ass. Realistically that was the worst mistake I made when I was starting. Overlevering. There is always more opportunity, especially if grow your skills

🚨 Powell coming in to save the market after 5 red days

Recap of the past 2 weeks in crypto: - $BTC new ATH to $124.5k and $ETH reached $4800, pushed by the two ETH DATs (BMNR & SBET). Massive weakness in the whole market since then. BTC retesting $112k, ETH bottomed at $4060 - $LINK started buybacks : +60% in two weeks - $MNT x Bybit relationship strengthened, buybacks incoming ? MNT up almost 2x in Aug - Strength in ETH beta coins: $AERO, $PENDLE, $ZORA new highs (Aug 11), $LDO $ARB - $IP announced its DAT and sold the news - $BIO up 3x in 2 weeks - $OBK 5x after massive burn - $YZY launched and topped in 1h

@afsoonezz @eliz883 If $ETH holds 4200 and pump to new ATH, And if not, then 3800-3900.

@lazyvillager1 Well said DNTG

Ethereum: The Cup Theory This is a WIP theory & you should draw your own conclusions on how this inflects around today's ETH price @ $4450 I started ideating the "Cup Theory" over the last week; the notion being that there is a critical difference in motivation that skews bid patterns in today's TCos differently than we have seen in the past. If you believe that Saylor's presence was critical in creating price discovery for BTC last Nov-Dec (I do), then logic follows that ETH TCos are the new bid to track as the primary engine for all "crypto" risk since mid-July I have iterated in the past that Saylor is a price-"insensitive" buyer in that he is a "kid in a candy store": when he receives capital, he spends it with little care for execution, foot print and timing. In doing so, his behavior resembles that of a "floor" creator: creating the appearance of "too big to fail." He is what I refer to as the "Gen 0 TCo" The most recent TCos are different. They are not as price-insensitive as their predecessors - they are "price-seeking." Meaning that they are not only sensitive to reserve asset price - they benefit deeply from it via the upstream valuation of the TCO vehicle. I propose they have 2 goals: create plunge protection when possible, and also create reflexivity when possible (bursting through "resistance"). Through acting this way, the notion of the "virtuous flywheel" is protected. This assumes capital abundance and that TCos are in the driver's seat of dictating price action In my view this is partially evidenced by how mNAV theoretically compresses or expands in a vacuum (if [reserve asset] price goes down, ceteris peribus, the mNAV goes up - and vice versa). This creates a unique market phenomenon: where as opposed to a linear distribution of risk formed by average price-sensitive buyers/sellers - speculators such as you or I - that typically manifests (reticent to buy panic/bottoms and eager to buy momentum & tops) - I suggest that these new TCos have very asymptomatic demand curves. Using a poker analogy: villain's bet pattern is to under- or over-bet polarized scenarios, rather than range betting a standard size The conclusion is therefore that price-seekers are very fine-tuned to "how the chart looks" - and so steps up to defend critical junctures (RE: $3000, $3300-3500, and now $4000). This leaves 1 Achilles' Heel - the gaps in the middle, which are formless. This is especially exacerbated if capital reserves are low (the flywheel begins unwinding). Retail (ETFs) must be the ones to fill in these gaps - and if they do not - price reverts quickly due to the lack of willingness by these TCos to deploy TLDR: TCos try to create price discovery; if stuffed (1-2 attempts fail) they understand that cash is fungible and will safeguard capital for later to create a floor - doing so creates stability in both TCo share price and reserve asset share price This forward thinking is unlike the gen 0 or gen 1 TCos (eg. Saylor) who have not shown a propensity to think 1 step ahead in reserving capital for future deployment, and just market buy / TWAP mindlessly

@Sukhrxj @HypeMaxiMatthew Honestly it’s harder than ever to go from 0 to a lot with perps most ppl are just fucked and need to find another way. Legit easiest best way is work multiple jobs and keep slamming in checks during bear market. There’s no advice I can give that will do anything.

Here are the current top holdings of Tom Lee’s $GRNY ETF

You should have a list of 10-15 coins that are your favorite shorts Each time you want to short BTC or ETH, short this basket instead You are pretty much guaranteed to make more money that way