Caj
495 posts
🚨 𝗡𝗕𝗔 𝗙𝗥𝗘𝗘 𝗣𝗟𝗔𝗬 🏀 Draymond Green over 14.5 pts+asts $50 to someone who 𝗟𝗜𝗞𝗘𝗦/Comments! Let me know if you're tailing 🔥 Posted hours early in Discord. Analysis⤵️ Draymond Green and the Warriors have a win or go home game tonight against the Clippers, this could be one of the last chances for a playoff run for them. Green has typically upped his game when the stakes are higher, especially when playing with Steph Curry. His assist rates and efficiency on offense go up with Curry on the court which is not a surprise. In 21 games with Steph when seeing 28+ minutes, we see Draymond has averaged 16.6 pts+asts. Obviously Jimmy is also out, there have been just 2 games in this situation where Green has played 28+ minutes without Butler but with Curry. In those games he put up 22 and 19 pts+asts vs DET and HOU. Those are tougher matchups than what he'll see tonight vs LAC. Pistons are obviously a great defense and Draymond wasn't even guarded by Sengun in HOU matchup. Tonight against the Clippers I expect Draymond to have the favorable matchup against Brook Lopez. LAC will have to respect Porzingis perimeter shot more than Draymond, so I see a smaller wing like DJJ/Kawhi to take KP. That will leave Lopez on Draymond where he is able to sag off and focus on help defense and rim protection. In this case we should expect Green to get plenty of quality looks on open 3's. We know he is also heavily involved as a facilitator with Curry and others running off screens and cutting (16, 11 and 12 potential asts in the 3 games since Curry returned). When playing next to Curry this season, Draymond has a 16.7 USG and averages 17.2 PA per 32 minutes even on poor shooting of 31% on 3's and 43% FG's in this sample. I expect the minutes to be strong, Green played low to mid 30's mins in their most important higher leverage games down the stretch. Had 10 FG+FTA and 18 potential ast in last game vs LAC with Curry. Great spot to back the veteran in a big game here to produce 15+ pts+asts in a favorable spot. Widely available on sportsbooks and DFS sites, this was at -106 at time of post in premium. #NBA #Gambling𝕏
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If Brunson and Garland cash RA I’ll literally give away $1000
🔒 Official Play: Sam Hoiberg (NEB) OVER 9.5 Rebounds + Assists (-128) Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ (5/5 Stars) Data Projection: 11.5 – 12.5 Rebs + Ast ⸻ 📊 The Breakdown The books are asleep at the wheel on this one. They’re anchoring this line to Hoiberg’s season-long average (6.7)… Instead of adjusting to his current role and usage. With Connor Essegian out for the season, Nebraska’s backcourt rotation has tightened — and Hoiberg’s responsibilities have exploded. This 9.5 line simply hasn’t caught up. ⸻ 🔢 Key Data Points 🔒 The Ironclad Floor Hoiberg is riding an 11-game streak of clearing 9.5 Rebs + Ast. Even crazier? His absolute floor over the last 10 games is 11. Last 10 totals: 11, 11, 12, 12, 12, 11, 12, 11, 15, 11 He’s not barely getting there. He’s clearing this line by 1.5+ units every single night. That’s consistency you build around. ⸻ ⏱ Massive Minutes You can’t cash overs from the bench. Hoiberg isn’t touching it. He’s averaging 36.4 minutes per game during this stretch. That’s elite workload territory. And with Kendall Blue now dealing with illness, those minutes are locked in again. Opportunity = production. ⸻ 🎯 Matchup Edge Nebraska enters as a 4.5-point favorite against a USC defense that struggles guarding the extra pass. USC ranks 272nd nationally in allowed assists. That’s a perfect setup for Hoiberg to: • Rack up playmaking numbers • Maintain his steady rebounding floor • Control tempo in a favorable game script This matchup enhances both sides of the stat combo. ⸻ 🧠 The Verdict We’re getting: • A player averaging 11.8 R+A over his last 10 • A rock-solid floor of 11 • Elite minutes (36+ per night) • A weak assist defense matchup Don’t overthink the season average. Trust the current role. Trust the minutes. Trust the 11-game heater. 📈 Take the Over. #cbbpicks #CBB #prizepicklocks #prizepicks #GamblingX Data powered by @PickFinderApp 👉 pickfinder.app/?ref=BigJae
