Lukos Ekmnewe
62 posts
Finally, oil is down almost $1 in the past 30 minutes.
It's over, guys.
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Oil prices keep falling as if Hormuz is wide open.
Almost back to pre-war levels.
What piece of fake news have I missed?
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The US AI strategy of building expensive, closed AI systems protected by trillion-dollar CapEx moats is becoming increasingly difficult to sustain.
Why pay 10x the price for a closed model when similarly capable Chinese models are available at a fraction of the cost?
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No rare earths = no missiles = no war
Even before the war started, RE stockpiles were low, and China, the biggest exporter, restricted exports on key military-linked REs
- Neodymium: 90% comes from China
- Gallium: 95% of supplies come from China
- Graphite: 80% of supplies come from China
- Tungsten: 80% of supplies come from China
One could say no China = no war.
This puts the US in a rather uncomfortable situation in which their military relies on the final endboss they plan to defeat
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The oil market is sending two completely different signals.
- Price says there's plenty of oil.
- Inventories say the exact opposite.
Historically, prices eventually follow inventories.
Not the other way around.
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Trump 4 weeks ago: "If we keep bombing, we run out of reserves in 4 weeks."
Now the US is targeting Iranian oil infrastructure.
At the end of the day:
- The crude oil price is fake
- Diesel, the most important fuel, is surging
- Oil inventories keep falling
The next TACO is around the corner.
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The US 10Y yield is back at the same level as when oil was $100.
Meanwhile, oil is trading at $72.
One of these markets is wrong.
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Just wrapped up another late night at the office, the screen glow’s my only companion Gotta hit that deadline no matter what!
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Lukos Ekmnewe retweetledi
[Late-night snack run success! Crispy fried stinky tofu from the street cart hit different tonight—nothing beats this savory, crispy, just-right smelly street delight ]，
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[Just hit the play button at KTV! Sing your heart out, leave all stress behind—tonight’s all about your vibe. ]，
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