zach wick

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zach wick

zach wick

@zachwick

Founder & CEO @btrbetapp | ex-@Stripe, ex-@VillageCarey legislator | @bgsu alum (x2), @utoledo alum

Katılım Ağustos 2010
2K Takip Edilen658 Takipçiler
zach wick
zach wick@zachwick·
One of the strange things about profitable MLB betting is how ordinary it looks in real time. No 12-leg parlays. No “locks.” No Lamborghini screenshots. Just small edges compounding over hundreds of bets. So far this MLB season: • 65 wagers • +14.64% ROI • +$181.10 profit • Avg bet size: $19.03 app.btrbet.app/community/cmpi…
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zach wick
zach wick@zachwick·
The goal is not to predict every game correctly. The goal is to repeatedly place yourself into situations where the price is slightly wrong and let time do the heavy lifting. That’s the kind of betting workflow we built @btrbetapp around. Track bets. Analyze performance. Study line movement. Find better numbers. btrbet.app
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zach wick
zach wick@zachwick·
The funny thing about baseball betting is that variance never stops arguing with you. A bloop single. A bad bullpen inning. Wind blowing out at Wrigley. Weeks of results can move around instantly. That’s why I pay attention to Sharpe and Sortino alongside raw ROI.
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zach wick
zach wick@zachwick·
Knowing when not to place a bet is maybe even more important than knowing when to place a bet. The @btrbetapp model says that under 5.5 Ks is good at a price longer than -118. The best price I can get is -133 at @PlayProphetX, so I'm going to pass. app.btrbet.app/community/cmpf…
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btrbet.app
btrbet.app@btrbetapp·
Told you so @zachwick Junk gets pulled after 5 innings and giving up 8 hits while only getting 3 Ks. Next time, maybe trust our model.
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btrbet.app
btrbet.app@btrbetapp·
There's an art to knowing when to trust the model and when to deviate from its suggestions. You make a good case for why the over makes sense here, but we're ready to say "I told you so" if you lose by the hook.
zach wick@zachwick

.@btrbetapp's model said UNDER 3.5 Ks for Janson Junk. I still bet the OVER. Why? Because strikeout props are interaction markets. Junk’s K trend is rising as Atlanta’s lineup is striking out more than usual. That overlap matters. Full breakdown video: app.btrbet.app/community/cmpe…

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zach wick
zach wick@zachwick·
The #Mets are averaging 9.4 hits/game over their last 5. They’re also averaging just 7.0 hits/game over their last 25. Which sample should the market trust more? Mets TT Hits Under 9.5 (-130) is today’s Mets Bet of the Day. Full writeup at app.btrbet.app/community/cmpe…
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zach wick
zach wick@zachwick·
.@btrbetapp's model said UNDER 3.5 Ks for Janson Junk. I still bet the OVER. Why? Because strikeout props are interaction markets. Junk’s K trend is rising as Atlanta’s lineup is striking out more than usual. That overlap matters. Full breakdown video: app.btrbet.app/community/cmpe…
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zach wick
zach wick@zachwick·
Diff of the Day Most bettors see “3.3 Ks/game” and assume Keider Montero under 3.5 strikeouts is a coin flip. But strikeout props are some of the most information-sensitive markets on the board. Books moved this under from the low -110s toward -130 today without moving the line itself. This is often a sign that the market is updating its probability distribution before adjusting the number. Why Fisher Information matters for MLB strikeout props: • 10 starts is still a relatively noisy sample • one extra inning can completely change the outcome • lineup + umpire + pitch count matter enormously Full breakdown here: app.btrbet.app/community/cmpd…
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zach wick
zach wick@zachwick·
#Mets Bet of the Day Brett Baty over 0.5 hits (-135) Looking at Baty’s regular season numbers, he has: - 29 hits in 126 at-bats - A .230 batting average - 38 strikeouts against 13 walks A .230 batting average doesn’t jump off the page. But for a hits prop, what matters is converting batting average into the probability of recording at least one hit across multiple at-bats. If Baty gets 4 at-bats tonight, the probability of him recording at least one hit works out to: 1 − (1 − .230)^4 ≈ 64.9% That implies fair odds around -185. The best available price right now is -135 at @BetMGM, which implies only a 57.4% probability. There’s still uncertainty in the estimate, of course. Fisher Information is one way to quantify the reliability of the batting sample. In plain English: every additional at-bat gives us more information about Baty’s underlying hitting ability and reduces the likelihood that the observed average is just random noise. With 126 regular-season at-bats already logged, the sample is becoming reasonably informative enough that the market price of -135 appears somewhat cheap relative to the raw season-to-date baseline. See the current prices from 250+ books, exchanges, and prediction markets for this market at app.btrbet.app/community/cmp8…
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