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让AI给光通讯观察列表排了个序： 第一组，质量最好/最适合当主仓观察： $LITE $FN 第二组，平台型强者： $COHR $CIEN $GLW 第三组，高弹性高波动： $AAOI 第四组，上游材料期权但基本面还弱： $AXTI $IQE $LITE （Lumentum） 最新表现： FY26 Q2 营收 $665.5M，同比 +65.5%；GAAP 毛利率 36.1%，GAAP 经营利润率 9.7%，GAAP 净利润 $78.2M，对应净利率约 11.8%。 公司还披露组件收入同比 +68.3%、系统收入同比 +60.1%。3 年收入 CAGR 约 -1.2%，也就是说历史三年并不亮眼，但现在处在明显再加速阶段。 更关键的是，公司说 OCS 订单积压已 超过 $400M，且新增了一个 数亿美元级别、2027年上半年交付的 CPO 订单。 最纯也是最受益于光通讯发展的标的。 $FN （Fabrinet） 最新表现： FY26 Q2 营收约 $1.13B，同比 +36%，是其历史上非常强的一季。毛利率约 12.4%，经营利润率约 10.9%，净利润约 $122M，净利率约 10.8%。FY25 全年营收 $3.42B，FY22 为 $2.26B，3 年收入 CAGR 约 +14.8%。FY25 全年 GAAP 净利润 $332.5M。 $FN 不是那种靠超高毛利吃估值溢价的公司，它更像制造执行力龙头。毛利率长期不高，但营收利润和 ROIC 很稳，这说明它的核心竞争力是良率、交付、客户信任、复杂制造能力。 $COHR (Coherent） 最新表现： FY26 Q2 营收 $1.69B，同比 +17%；若剔除出售航太防务业务影响，管理层给出的同比增速是 +22% 。 GAAP 毛利率 36.9%，非 GAAP 毛利率 39.0%。FY25 全年营收 $5.81B，FY22 为 $5.16B，按此算 3 年收入 CAGR 约 +4.0%；FY25 GAAP 净亏损约 $156M，净利率约 -2.7%。 $COHR 的强项是 平台最全，覆盖材料、激光、通信器件/模块，AI 数据中心带来的是它通信部分的高增，但工业/激光等旧业务会稀释整体利润率，，而不是最纯的 AI 光模块标的。优势是产品面宽、议价能力和技术深度强；弱点是业务结构复杂，纯度不如 LITE/AAOI。 $CIEN 最新表现： FY26 Q1 营收 $1.43B，同比 +33%；净利润 $150.3M，净利率约 10.5%；整体毛利率 43.8%，调整后毛利率 44.7%。FY25 全年营收 $4.77B，FY22 为 $3.63B，3 年收入 CAGR 约 +9.5%。公司最新又把 FY26 收入指引提高到 $5.9B–$6.3B，并把 2026 年毛利率预期提高到 43.5%–44.5%。 $AAOI 最新表现： FY2025 全年营收 $455.7M，同比从 $249.4M 大幅增长；GAAP 毛利率 30.0%；GAAP 净亏损 $38.2M，净利率约 -8.4%。最新 Q4 营收 $134.3M，GAAP 毛利率 31.2%，GAAP 净亏损 $2.0M，已经非常接近盈亏平衡。FY22 全年营收 $222.8M，按 FY22–FY25 算 3 年收入 CAGR 约 +26.9%。 AAOI 是这组里 弹性最大、波动也最大 的公司之一。它最大的优点，是如果 800G/1.6T 放量顺利，收入弹性会非常夸张；最大的缺点，是它直到现在还没有完全证明自己能持续、稳定地把高增长转成高利润。 $GLW (Corning) 最新表现： FY2025 全年 GAAP 销售 $15.629B，同比 +19%；GAAP 毛利率 36.0%，GAAP 经营利润率 14.6%，GAAP 净利润 $1.596B，净利率约 10.2%。FY22 销售为 $14.2B，3 年收入 CAGR 约 +3.3%。它的 Q4 2025 光通信业务销售 $1.7B，同比 +24%；管理层同时宣布与 Meta 达成一份 最高可达 $6B 的多年协议，提供光纤、线缆和连接产品。 Corning 更像 AI 基础设施“卖水人”，卖的是光纤、连接、材料，不是最性感的器件。光通讯Beta股。

$NBIS earnings were stellar and it’s now trading $200+ premarket. Reiterated $7-9B ARR in 2026. 40% adj. EBITDA margin projections, which is vastly outperforming expectations. 4 GW contracted capacity. $6.3B capital secured by $NVDA off solid financial offering structures. Glad my high conviction Neocloud pick is performing wonders and happy management is executing so well. In the words of Jensen: “Nebius will take care of you”

Hard to believe it’s been 10 years since AlphaGo! It was wonderful to catch up with Lee Sae Dol last week in Korea and join Shin Jin-seo for a special Go match. Great to reminisce about AlphaGo & super interesting to hear how it changed the way players approach the game of Go!

Tech layoffs are skyrocketing: Tech companies announced 81,747 layoffs in Q1 2026, the highest quarterly total since at least Q1 2024. Layoffs have more than DOUBLED from the previous quarter and have risen +580% since Q4 2025. March alone saw 45,800 announced job cuts, the worst single month for tech layoffs in at least 2 years. Tech layoffs are set to remain elevated with Meta's, $META, recent plans to cut ~8,000 employees. Furthermore, Microsoft, $MSFT, is offering voluntary retirement to ~7% of its US workforce, which could transition into layoffs if participation is low. This comes as tech giants shift spending toward AI chips and data centers, trimming staff to free up capital for infrastructure. US tech employment is rapidly contracting.

JUST IN: Japanese toilet maker TOTO announces pivot into AI chip components, stock soars +18%.

Something strange is happening in tech. CTOs of billion dollar companies are quitting to take IC roles at Anthropic. Workday CTO -> MTS (Mar 2026) You[.]com CTO -> MTS (Mar 2026) Instagram CTO -> MTS (Jan 2026) Box CTO -> MTS (Dec 2025) Super[.]com CTO -> MTS (July 2025) Adept AI CTO -> MTS (Jan 2025) The mission is that real.

If $ABCL retests $3.79 again, I will increase my position another 33%. I have not felt this level of conviction since $PLTR. Remember, your average cost does not matter. Your share count does. Long and strong. Happy Friday ☀️🍀

I’m convinced that the people who charge $200 or $2000 just to see their stock picks. Do so just because their ideas aren’t good enough. Otherwise they would just go long on them with their own capital and retire. This is why they get mad when they see others sharing better ideas for free.

RDDT财报不错，超预期。 毛利91.5% ，堪比印钞机

Wow, $RDDT just posted an absolute blowout quarter. -> $663M revenue (69% growth Y/Y) vs. ~$608M consensus. -> $1.01 EPS reported vs. $0.6 consensus (68.3% beat). -> 91.5% gross margins. -> Q1 GAAP net income was $204M. This is probably the most important figure for true profitability since it includes SBC. Next quarter they projected, $715M to $725M revenue growth with $285 million to $295 million adjusted EBITDA. Reddit looks like a literal, high growth money printer. (Disclosure: I do have Reddit positions.) Expect a lot of chart volatility from short term option flows. But fundamentally, if you look at Reddit earnings without the noise, Reddit money printer go brrr.

CALLED IT. $QCOM GOT A HYPERSCALER +14% AH "We are equally excited by our entry into the data center, where a leading hyperscaler custom silicon engagement is on track for initial shipments later this calendar year"

BREAKING: President Trump says the US government is now up over $30 billion since he decided to buy Intel stock, $INTC, in August 2025. "I'm very proud of that company," Trump says.

Hyperscaler cloud YoY growth rates, Q1 2025 vs Q1 2026: $AMZN: 16% vs 28% $MSFT: 33% vs 40% $GOOG: 28% vs 63% They all accelerated from already high bases.. There is no bubble. Period. Demand is skyrocketing and we are just getting started. $NBIS $CRWV $MSFT $GOOG $AMZN

Silicon Valley was really so ahead of their time